tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7380252582204211732024-03-05T01:33:48.571-05:00Global Warming Blog by Henry AuerCarbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are responsible for global warming, the long-term worldwide average warming experienced since the industrial revolution. GHGs arise from human use of fossil fuels for energy. Major emitters of GHGs include both industrialized countries and, in recent decades, developing countries as well. Higher global temperatures cause the extremes of hot and cold, and wet and dry, weather of recent years. This blog examines global warming and its effects.Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.comBlogger201125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-71781293569238703112021-12-30T22:19:00.003-05:002021-12-31T09:37:56.835-05:00Urgently Needed: Connecticut Legislation to Mitigate Global Warming/Climate Change<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]--><i><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Summary:
Six Assessment Reports on the global climate have been issued since 1990 by the
IPCC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Fourth U.S. Climate Assessment
was issued in 2017-2018.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These and other
reports have warned, with increasing urgency up to the present, that the
continued, unabated increases in emission rates of man-made greenhouse gases relative
to values before the industrial revolution have led to corresponding increases
in global average temperature.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These
higher temperatures lead globally to increasingly extreme weather and climate
events that cause physical and socioeconomic harms and damages to the world we
live in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></i>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Two
model images are presented that drive home the need, stated clearly in the
reports, aggressively to reduce annual emission rates so that the total man-made
GHG concentration in the atmosphere is kept as low as possible.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Connecticut
is among many U. S. states developing policies to bring about emission
reductions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Important laws are
summarized; then it is urged to resurrect proposals of the 2021 legislative
session that were not successfully enacted, and additional bills are proposed for
consideration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As in </span></i><i><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">the </span></i><i><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">entire world,
and in the absence of nationwide U.S. climate policies, Connecticut should act
with ambition to pass substantive climate legislation to minimize further emissions.
</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 2.25in; mso-add-space: auto;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Introduction:
We need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission rates (emissions per year) to
near zero in the near future</span></u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a>) has issued six Assessment
Reports (ARs) on the climate since 1990.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>From the First AR to the present these have urged emission rate
reductions, where the emissions refer to excess GHGs, especially carbon dioxide
(CO<sub>2</sub>), that arise from human activity.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">In
2015 the nations of the U.N. reached consensus on the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement ">Paris Agreement</a>, by which all 196 nations agreed to limit their emissions so as effectively to
limit the increase in the global average temperature since before the
industrial revolution to well below 2.0</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">C (3.6</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°F), preferably to </span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">1.5</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">C (2.7</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°F).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 267.85pt;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The U.S. National Climate Assessments (NCAs)
appear every four years, a collaborative effort involving thirteen federal
agencies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/reports/executive-summary-climate-science-special-report-fourth-national-climate-assessment">Fourth NCA</a>
was released over 2017-2018. Its <a href="https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/reports/executive-summary-climate-science-special-report-fourth-national-climate-assessment">Executive Summary</a> includes the following statements. <br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; tab-stops: 267.85pt;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Global average
temperatures have risen </span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino-Roman;">1.8°F (1.0°C) over 1901-2016.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; tab-stops: 267.85pt;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino-Roman;"> “With significant reductions in the emissions of [GHGs], the global
… temperature rise could be limited to 3.6°F (2°C) or less. Without major
reductions … the increase … relative to preindustrial times could reach 9°F (5°C)
or more by the end of this century.” <br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; tab-stops: 267.85pt;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino-Roman;">“Stabilizing global mean temperature to less than 3.6°F (2°C)
above preindustrial levels requires substantial reductions in net global CO<sub>2</sub>
emissions <i>prior to 2040</i> relative to present-day values and likely
requires net emissions to become zero or possibly … [removal from the atmosphere]
later in the century.” (Emphasis added).</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The
world’s policymakers have had ample time to deploy GHG reduction technologies
in orderly fashion had they heeded climate scientists’ warnings beginning with
the IPCC First AR (1990).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These urgings
have been ignored or rejected in the three decades since, with the result that the
future weather and climate extremes that scientists had warned of at the outset
have actually come to pass ferociously in recent years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The IPCC released its <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15_SPM_High_Res.pdf">Special Report </a>on global
warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2018. The
goal of limiting warming to 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels, proposed in its earlier
ARs, has been modified in the Special Report: the more stringent limit, 1.5°C,
would lead to less severe weather and climate consequences.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Clearly, extensive climate action has to be undertaken
urgently from this time onward, to make up for the revised lower limit and the time
lost to inaction in past decades. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The
nature of the climate crisis presently facing the world is illustrated in the
following two graphics.</span></u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>First, the IPCC
Special Report presents a modeled comparison of a <b><span style="color: black; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">rapid</span></b><span style="color: black; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"> (</span><b><span style="color: #2e74b5; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">teal lines</span></b><span style="color: black; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">)<b> </b>vs <b>moderate</b> (</span><b><span style="color: grey; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: background1; mso-themeshade: 128;">gray lines</span></b><span style="color: black; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">) reduction in the <b>rate</b> of emission of carbon
dioxide (CO<sub><span style="mso-text-raise: -3.5pt; position: relative; top: 3.5pt;">2</span></sub>)
(amount emitted per year) (Panel b, below) and the <b>accumulated total amount </b>of
CO<sub><span style="mso-text-raise: -3.5pt; position: relative; top: 3.5pt;">2 </span></sub>in
the atmosphere (Panel c) for the <b>rapid</b> (</span><b><span style="color: #2e74b5; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">teal lines</span></b><span style="color: black; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">)<b> </b>vs <b>moderate</b> (</span><b><span style="color: grey; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: background1; mso-themeshade: 128;">gray lines</span></b><span style="color: black; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">) reductions. <br /></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi38WyhYd-Q1Sfc51TVBWLgAj6uNqvf1l5FhoaQGZ8x65ZVUZK-3sH2zoV30W0C4SX4ajQf50Y_2hzGTsBGA3o946dha50OG5v1Q4UrFxEr13AoncePA7xqk_3jKgxXeYi1OTG_vKe4m_cRSG19_UMcwXyE3Wr2W0TE1ie4uYJdnY-6MACofJePhHSD=s866" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="431" data-original-width="866" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi38WyhYd-Q1Sfc51TVBWLgAj6uNqvf1l5FhoaQGZ8x65ZVUZK-3sH2zoV30W0C4SX4ajQf50Y_2hzGTsBGA3o946dha50OG5v1Q4UrFxEr13AoncePA7xqk_3jKgxXeYi1OTG_vKe4m_cRSG19_UMcwXyE3Wr2W0TE1ie4uYJdnY-6MACofJePhHSD=w504-h250" width="504" /></a></div>
<p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Both
panels give historical data for emissions of carbon dioxide from 1970 to 2020
and the hypothetical cases of <b>moderate</b> vs <b>rapid</b> reductions in
rate of emission from 2020 to 2100.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
panel b) the <b>moderate</b> reduction in emission <b>rate</b> <span style="color: black; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">(</span><b><span style="color: grey; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: background1; mso-themeshade: 128;">gray line</span></b><span style="color: black; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">) reaches zero emissions in 2055 while the <b>rapid</b>
rate of reduction (</span><b><span style="color: #2e74b5; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">teal line</span></b><span style="color: black; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">) reaches zero
in 2040, a far more ambitious and intense effort.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The area of the triangle represents the carbon
dioxide emissions <b>that are eliminated</b> by adopting the rapid rate. Panel
c) shows the effect of the <b>rapid</b> emission <b>rate</b> of panel b) on the
<b>accumulated</b> total carbon dioxide, giving a lower total accumulation (</span><b><span style="color: #2e74b5; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">teal line</span></b><span style="color: black; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">) for the <b>rapid </b>emission case.</span></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 14pt; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 14pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"> Source:</span> </span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">IPCC, 2018: Summary for
Policymakers. In: Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the
impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, V.
Masson-Delmotte, and coworkers (eds.). World Meteorological Organization,
Geneva, Switzerland. <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15_SPM_High_Res.pdf">https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15_SPM_High_Res.pdf</a></span>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The
lower amount of <b>accumulated</b> <span style="color: black; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">CO<sub><span style="mso-text-raise: -3.5pt; position: relative; top: 3.5pt;">2 </span></sub></span>resulting from <b>rapid
emissions reductions</b> (panel c)) translates to a lower global average
temperature, such as <span style="color: black; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">1.5°C,</span> and an earlier attainment of that temperature plateau, than
the moderate case.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Second<i>,
</i>the faster that emission rates are reduced toward zero, the lower will be
the total accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The cartoon below of two cars traveling down
the GHG highway captures this message.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi3j0kp8A8LMPll28knccEhuCYImw0_OEwdLQnoWJKT_TiTHCioINLfnQqyNKz7HIuBOXZoB4UtaQE0wc_EojHNJOwhNwjVetClGb-cBFIzI5a56UChT2-De5l9UMI4blh80JaW5iB2V7o9gLiKK5kJDZvO39MnmXEyfgc0pHoQbOOntFcT94Vgfj5z=s1031" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="285" data-original-width="1031" height="146" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi3j0kp8A8LMPll28knccEhuCYImw0_OEwdLQnoWJKT_TiTHCioINLfnQqyNKz7HIuBOXZoB4UtaQE0wc_EojHNJOwhNwjVetClGb-cBFIzI5a56UChT2-De5l9UMI4blh80JaW5iB2V7o9gLiKK5kJDZvO39MnmXEyfgc0pHoQbOOntFcT94Vgfj5z=w531-h146" width="531" /></a></div>Source:
Henry E. Auer<p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Two
cars travel down the GHG Highway at the same speed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Each mile traveled represents a certain increase
in the total amount of accumulated GHGs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Each car applies brakes at the same point. On the <span style="color: red;">red </span>trip the brakes are applied <b>gently</b> (a
metaphor for <b>moderate</b> GHG mitigation measures), so the car travels
further before reaching a <b>stop</b> (a metaphor for ceasing further GHG
emissions), leading to more GHG highway miles traveled (a metaphor for higher
amounts of GHGs accumulating in the atmosphere).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the <span style="color: lime;">green </span>trip
the brakes are applied <b>forcefully</b> (a metaphor <b>for intensive,
aggressive</b> mitigation measures), so the car travels only a short distance
further down the highway before stopping. This leads to less GHG highway miles
traveled (a metaphor for lower amounts of GHGs accumulating in the atmosphere).
This yields a lower global average temperature.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Reducing
GHG emissions to near zero</span></u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">. U.S. federal and international agencies have
consistently stated the need for urgent, substantive and effective action to
minimize the effects of man-made global warming/climate change. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We must all act internationally, at the
national level, at the state and provincial level, and locally; <b>global</b>
warming originates across our planet and must be addressed by <b>all nations
and citizens</b> of the world in concert.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Annual
GHG emission rates have to be reduced to near zero within two decades, or at
best by midcentury, to minimize more frequent and intense extreme weather and
climate events. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the U.S. some recent
administrations have sought mitigation policies in recent years, but most of
these efforts have been rejected or successfully blocked in court.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The current Biden administration is advancing
its legislative and administrative objectives to decarbonize.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">In
the absence of effective federal policies, some states and even municipalities
have established their own mitigation policies with specific goals. Examples
include <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-sheets/ab-32-global-warming-solutions-act-2006">California</a>, <a href=" https://www.nj.gov/dep/climatechange/mitigation.html">New Jersey</a>
and <a href=" https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/034104405ef9462f8e02a49f2bd84fd9">Washington, D.C.</a>, among others. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Connecticut’s
global warming policies</span></u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">. Connecticut has enacted policies to promote
decarbonization of its energy economy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Selections
include </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Public Act No. 08-98, AN ACT CONCERNING
CONNECTICUT GLOBAL WARMING SOLUTIONS</span></u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">, which states in part that, by January
2020 GHG emissions had to be reduced by 10% below 1990 levels; as amended by <u>Public
Act No. 18-82, AN ACT CONCERNING CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING AND RESILIENCY</u>, by
January 2030 emissions have to be reduced by 45% below 2001 levels; and by
January 2050 they have to reduced by 80% below 2001 levels.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Public Act No. 18-50,</span> </u><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">AN ACT
CONCERNING CONNECTICUT'S ENERGY FUTURE</span></u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">, in part, establishes an annual
schedule for Connecticut’s electric companies that their electricity reach the target
of at least 40% renewable energy by 2030. It also provided for new compensation
choices for residential and business owners of solar energy sources.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Public Act No. 19-71, AN ACT CONCERNING
THE PROCUREMENT OF ENERGY DERIVED FROM OFFSHORE WIND</span></u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">, authorizes soliciting
proposals for up to 2000 MW of offshore wind generation sources by December 31,
2030. <br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Suggested
Climate Legislation for the 2022 CGA Session</span></u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This post has stressed the importance of reducing GHG emissions aggressively
and substantively.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The list below gives a
selection of relevant bills from the 2021 session that were not enacted, yet
which would contribute significantly to decarbonizing Connecticut’s energy
economy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They should be reintroduced and
given urgent consideration for enactment in the 2022 session convening on February
9.<a name="_Hlk91770265"></a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://www.cga.ct.gov/asp/cgabillstatus/cgabillstatus.asp?InMyBill=True&selBillType=Bill&bill_num=SB00884&which_year=2021&UID=henry.auer@snet.net ">SB 884</a> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>AN ACT REDUCING TRANSPORTATION-RELATED
CARBON EMISSIONS. Joint Favorable
Report.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This bill implements the
Transportation Climate Initiative. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://www.cga.ct.gov/asp/cgabillstatus/cgabillstatus.asp?InMyBill=True&selBillType=Bill&bill_num=HB05641&which_year=2021&UID=henry.auer@snet.net ">HB 5641</a>&
SB 135 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>AN ACT CONCERNING THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF HIGH-PERFORMANCE GREEN BUILDING STANDARDS FOR VOLUNTARY
ADOPTION BY MUNICIPALITIES. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
important proposed legislation would yield a stretch code that a municipality
may adopt. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Its provisions presumably
would anticipate features that would become part of the Connecticut state
building code in future years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://www.cga.ct.gov/asp/cgabillstatus/cgabillstatus.asp?InMyBill=True&selBillType=Bill&bill_num=SB00127&which_year=2021&UID=henry.auer@snet.net">SB 127</a> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>AN ACT CONCERNING THE SALE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES
IN THE STATE. Joint Favorable Report. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This bill would promote energy efficiency in
the transportation sector by expanding purchase options. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://www.cga.ct.gov/asp/cgabillstatus/cgabillstatus.asp?InMyBill=True&selBillType=Bill&bill_num=SB00725&which_year=2021&UID=henry.auer@snet.net ">SB 725</a> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>AN ACT INCENTIVIZING THE USE OF ELECTRIC
VEHICLES. This bill would promote energy efficiency in the transportation
sector.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://www.cga.ct.gov/asp/cgabillstatus/cgabillstatus.asp?InMyBill=True&selBillType=Bill&bill_num=SB00882&which_year=2021&UID=henry.auer@snet.net">SB 882</a> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>AN ACT CONCERNING CLIMATE CHANGE
MITIGATION AND HOME ENERGY AFFORDABILITY. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Joint Favorable Report. </span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://www.cga.ct.gov/asp/cgabillstatus/cgabillstatus.asp?InMyBill=True&selBillType=Bill&bill_num=HB05246&which_year=2021&UID=henry.auer@snet.net">HB 5246</a> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>AN ACT RAISING THE RESIDENTIAL SOLAR
INVESTMENT PROGRAM CAP. <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://www.cga.ct.gov/asp/cgabillstatus/cgabillstatus.asp?InMyBill=True&selBillType=Bill&bill_num=HB05247&which_year=2021&UID=henry.auer@snet.net">HB 5247</a> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>AN ACT ELIMINATING THE VIRTUAL NET
METERING CAP. </span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://www.cga.ct.gov/asp/cgabillstatus/cgabillstatus.asp?InMyBill=True&selBillType=Bill&bill_num=HB05619&which_year=2021&UID=henry.auer@snet.net">HB 5619</a> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>AN
ACT CONCERNING THE TEACHING OF CLIMATE CHANGE INSTRUCTION IN PUBLIC SCHOOLS.
(Please see Science Magazine for a review of the report: “Miseducation: How
Climate Change is Taught in America”;<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Science
• 16 Dec 2021 • Vol 374, Issue 6574 • p. 1451 • <a href="DOI: 10.1126/science.abl9313">DOI: 10.1126/science.abl9313</a>) <br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://www.cga.ct.gov/asp/cgabillstatus/cgabillstatus.asp?InMyBill=True&selBillType=Bill&bill_num=HB05640&which_year=2021&UID=henry.auer@snet.net ">HB 5640</a> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>AN ACT CONCERNING PREWIRING FOR SOLAR
POWER AND ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGING STATIONS FOR ALL NEW RESIDENTIAL
CONSTRUCTION. <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> Additionally,
the following new legislative concepts are proposed.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Installations of
solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays should be maximized on state properties, such as
rooftops and highway rights of way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Agriculture in the state can be protected while still installing PV
arrays with<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agrivoltaic"> agrivoltaics</a></span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agrivoltaic"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">State vehicle
fleets should be rapidly replaced with electric or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The state should provide incentives to replace
school buses with electric vehicles<span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">; the financial burden can
be eased by leasing rather than purchasing</span>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Heavy duty vehicles should likewise be replaced.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Licensing for taxi and ride-hailing fleets
should require vehicles be only electric. </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Conclusion</span></u></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk91770265;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Accelerating
growth of man-made GHG emissions worldwide is leading to increasing physical
and socio-economic harms and damages worldwide.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It is critical to minimize further emissions starting right away.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Connecticut can do its part in this effort by
enacting aggressive legislation, both by resurrecting previous legislative
proposals and enacting new concepts such as suggested here.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The global climate hazard requires worldwide action,
including ambitious action by Connecticut.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> ©
2021 Henry E. Auer</span></p>
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<![endif]--><p></p><br />Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-11959706535046440602021-12-21T21:45:00.001-05:002021-12-27T05:56:31.023-05:00We Can No Longer Delay Minimizing Global Warming/Climate Change<span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Summary:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has issued six Assessment Reports
over the past three decades.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This blog
has presented three posts recently tabulating the effects of warming and the scientific
need for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that the Reports
presented.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The posts focus on the
unabated increase in man-made carbon dioxide emissions, the consequent increase
in global average temperature, and the inexorable increase in sea level.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For each of these topics, from the beginning the
Reports have declared the necessity of minimizing GHG emissions in order to
avoid the worst harms and damages from continued warming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their warnings have become more urgent, and
have been expressed with increasingly unambiguous certainty, as the series of
Reports has been issued.</span></i>
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Harms
and damages that were only hypothetical in the early Reports have now become
commonplace, as sea levels have continued rising; droughts, famine and
wildfires have ensued; and more intense, violent climate and weather events
have unfolded with freakish intensity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Even so, policymakers and commercial interests in the private realm have
largely ignored these warnings throughout the three decades.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now is the time energetically to combat
further warming globally to make up for three decades of inaction, and to
mitigate worsening climate change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We
have no alternative.</span></i></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 1.75in; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*</span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Introduction
– The Urgent Need to Minimize Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions</span></u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In three recent posts this blog has
summarized aspects of the work of climate scientists over the last 30
years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first post is titled “<b><a href="https://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2021/09/a-broken-record-greenhouse-gases.html">What,Again? Greenhouse Gases Accumulate in the Atmosphere</a>”</b></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span color="windowtext" face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">the second is </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">“</span></span><b><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2021/10/what-again-global-warming-continues.html">What, Again? Global Warming Continues Unabated</a>”</span></b><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">, and the third is “<b><a href="https://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2021/10/what-again-sea-level-will-continue.html">What, Again? Sea Level Will Continue Rising for Centuries</a>”</b></span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">.</span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Each
post summarizes the aspect of climate science reflected in its title, as
presented by the U. N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in
its series of six Assessment Reports (ARs) issued over the past 31 years up to
the (first of three volumes of) the Sixth AR, which appeared in August 2021. Each
post included a tabulation of the significant findings, and the suggested
future policies, related to the title of the post, as found in each AR. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Significantly, the need to reduce GHG emissions
was already expressed in the first AR in 1990 and has been reinforced in each
report up to the present time in the Sixth AR.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>What has changed is that the strength of the climate science
underpinning those conclusions has increased dramatically over time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The capabilities of gathering data and using
more powerful computers to analyze them, and to develop more refined, detailed
climate models, have all increased remarkably. </span></span></p><p>
<span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Sadly, the world’s policymakers and industries have
not heeded these warnings, but have continued policies and practices leading to
unabated, indeed increasing, GHGs emissions throughout these three decades, as
shown in the graphic below.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"> <br /></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgNDpKAQjPiuO8WDJiNsOhyVotpNuNF7jk9JTkDCTnwNAFZD8DLZ3XKCyJTNhWP-NRituUXnXST37L5CPvK1KCnx2IHuF7fAlmoyQinRq9UDHCcAWz9GoVcqKLFUZX-S_mOgiyKA8ZtVTyLC2iKnyqc91gS0fXc93P73IACLLrSockplbmY34XoBV6m=s3004" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2462" data-original-width="3004" height="427" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgNDpKAQjPiuO8WDJiNsOhyVotpNuNF7jk9JTkDCTnwNAFZD8DLZ3XKCyJTNhWP-NRituUXnXST37L5CPvK1KCnx2IHuF7fAlmoyQinRq9UDHCcAWz9GoVcqKLFUZX-S_mOgiyKA8ZtVTyLC2iKnyqc91gS0fXc93P73IACLLrSockplbmY34XoBV6m=w520-h427" width="520" /></a><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></span></div><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</span><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Direct
measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (smoothed over the 12 months of a
year) taken atop the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii beginning in 1958.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The base level prior to the Industrial Revolution
is 280 ppm.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ppm, parts of carbon dioxide
in 1 million parts of air. The vertical lines represent the dates of issue of
the respective Assessment Reports, and the date of the U. N. Paris Climate Agreement
(2015).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Adapted from the carbon
dioxide data referenced in the URL at the bottom of the image. <br /></span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">In
spite of the persistent urgings of the six teams of climate scientists writing
the six ARs over three decades, and the agreement reached in Paris among
virtually all GHG-emitting nations to begin reducing their emissions, the data
in the graphic show no indication of slowing emission rates up to the present
time. <br /></span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Accumulated
GHGs are directly responsible for increasing global temperatures</span></u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many man-made GHGs, including the extra
carbon dioxide emitted by burning fossil fuels, are “long-lived” GHGs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Once emitted into the atmosphere they remain
there for hundreds or thousands of years without being destroyed or taken up by
the earth system, so that they accumulate to ever higher levels with each
passing year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(A minor fraction of
carbon dioxide is absorbed by photosynthesis and by dissolving into oceans and
lakes.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is why the image above
shows that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere keep increasing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The increase from one year to the next
represents the net amount added to the atmosphere during that year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indeed, the carbon dioxide level increased
from about 353 ppm at the time of the First AR to about 416 ppm at the Sixth
AR, the present.</span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Greenhouse
gases are called that because they retain a portion of the sun’s energy
reaching the earth as heat energy, instead of having that heat be radiated from
earth back into outer space.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This leads the
temperature of the earth system to increase. The earth system mimics glass
greenhouses in retaining heat.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their
glass enclosure captures outgoing heat energy, so that excess heat accumulates inside
the greenhouse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The interiors of cars in
the summer sun heat up for the same reason.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Climate modeling of future warming, summarized in recent ARs, shows that
the extent of incremental heating of the earth system depends on excess GHGs in
the atmosphere (including excess carbon dioxide from fossil fuels) in almost a
straight-line fashion. <br /></span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">It
is critical to reduce the net annual GHG emission rate to near zero by
midcentury, and optimally sooner</span></u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The IPCC released “<span style="color: black; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15_SPM_High_Res.pdf" target="_blank">Global warming of 1.5°C</a> [2.7°F]. An IPCC Special
Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels,
V. Masson-Delmotte, and coworkers (eds.)” in 2018. </span></span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"> </span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">As
emphasized above, the world’s policymakers had ample time to implement GHG
reduction technologies in orderly fashion had they heeded climate scientists’
warnings beginning with the First AR.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>These urgings have been ignored or rejected in the three decades since,
with the result that future weather and climate extremes that scientists warned
of at the outset have actually come to pass ferociously in recent years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In addition, the goal of limiting warming to <span style="color: black; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">2.0°C</span> [<span style="color: black; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">3.6°F]</span> above
pre-industrial levels, proposed in earlier reports, has been replaced in the
Special Report by a more stringent limit,<span style="color: black; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"> 1.5°C</span>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Climate action has to be undertaken urgently from this time onward, to
make up for the lower revised limit and the time lost in past decades. The IPCC
Special Report lays out this case in great detail. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Conclusion</span></u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Climate scientists have been characterizing
the harms and damages they expected from continued unabated burning of fossil
fuels, and from other GHG sources, for more than three decades.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Throughout that period policymakers have not
acted meaningfully on the scientists’ urgings to reduce use of fossil fuels,
nor to reduce other GHG sources.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And
now, in recent years those harms and damages are coming to pass around the
globe with increasing frequency and severity.</span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">This
post presents the urgent, critical case that ambitious, aggressive, effective
actions need to be taken starting now to reduce annual GHG emission rates
toward zero by midcentury or preferably earlier.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Policymakers can no longer ignore the
inexorable action of the physical laws governing global warming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Industries providing fossil fuels and those
using that energy seek to preserve their business models indefinitely.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is now clearly untenable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They must change the way they do business or
get out of the way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We all must act
internationally, at the national level, at the state and provincial level, and
locally; <b>global</b> warming originates across our planet and must be
addressed by <b>all nations and citizens</b> of the world in concert. As many
have said, “There is no Planet B!”</span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
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<![endif]--></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">© 2021 Henry E. Auer</span></span></span>Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-4014010154560939692021-10-31T22:30:00.000-04:002021-10-31T22:30:00.099-04:00Major Faiths Support Climate Action<span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
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mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
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<![endif]--></span><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Summary:
Faith leaders of three religions around the world are selected here for
discussion of the basis in their respective faiths for action to address global
warming/climate change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Christianity and
Judaism both emphasize Biblical verses found in the Old Testament relating to
Creation, as well as others, and the role of humans in preserving Creation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These lead to the principle that the bounties
of our planet are ours to cherish, protect and nurture; i. e., that humans have
the responsibility for stewardship of these resources rather than exploiting
them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In Islam verses from the Qur’an
evoke the supremacy of Allah, who granted fertile land, fresh air and clean
water to humans, all in balance. As humans corrupt this balance global climate
change, and other ecological imbalances, result.</span></i>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> These
religions provide strong moral foundations for taking action to limit global
warming/climate change.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 1.75in; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The religions
professed by many peoples around the world express the relationship of humanity
with the natural world in similar ways.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In the following I summarize relevant positions as expressed by Christianity,
Judaism and Islam.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Christianity</span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Pope
Francis</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">
is the head of the Roman Catholic Church. <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">He
delivered a <a href="https://www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2021-09/francis-healthy-environment-human-right.html" target="_blank">video message</a> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> to the Council of Europe on
September 29, 2021, during the Council’s Assembly leading up to<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the U. N. COP26 (the 26<sup>th</sup>
Conference of the Parties) climate conference convening in Glasgow, Scotland in
November 2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>COP26 is intended to
affirm and extend the Paris Agreement of 2015.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>He said the Earth is our God-given resource, not to be disfigured or
exploited.</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">“When the human being considers himself the
master of the universe and not its responsible steward, he or she justifies any
kind of waste and treats the other people and nature as mere objects….</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">[W]e must … take care of nature, so that it
takes care of us.” </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The
Pope’s principal expression of the humanity-environment relationship is embodied
in his encyclical Laudato Si’, released May 24, 2015.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He writes that the original grant of
“dominion” over the Earth and its beasts has been misconstrued, leading to “sinful”
domination over them:</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="Default" style="margin-left: .5in;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span><em><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Garamond;">“</span></em><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;">The
harmony between the Creator, humanity and creation … was disrupted …. This in
turn distorted our mandate to ‘have dominion’ over the earth (cf. <i>Gen </i>1:28),
to ‘till it and keep it’ (<i>Gen </i>2:15). As a result, the originally
harmonious relationship between human beings and nature became conflictual
(cf. <i>Gen </i>3:17-19).”</span></p><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"> The
“conflict” appears to arise, in Francis’s view, because the first two Biblical
citations refer to creation and inhabiting the garden of Eden, whereas the
third takes place after (sinfully) eating the fruit of the tree of knowledge of
good and evil:</span>
<p class="Default" style="margin-left: .5in;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;">[We]
“respond to the charge that Judaeo-Christian thinking, on the basis of the
Genesis account which grants man ‘dominion’ over the earth (cf. Gen 1:28), has
encouraged the unbridled exploitation of nature by painting him as domineering
and destructive by nature. This is not a correct interpretation of the Bible ….
we must forcefully reject the notion that our being … given dominion over the
earth justifies absolute domination over other creatures…. [Rather] they tell
us to ‘till and keep’ the garden of the world (cf. Gen 2:15). ‘Tilling’ refers
to cultivating, ploughing or working, while ‘keeping’ means caring, protecting,
overseeing and preserving. This implies a relationship of mutual responsibility
between human beings and nature.”</span></p><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"> The encyclical
characterizes the advances of science and technology, and urges humanity to
overcome abuses of power and social justice that have resulted from these
advances in recent times:</span>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: .45in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l3 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"> <span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">“We
are the beneficiaries of two centuries of enormous … change…. [Scientific and
technological advances] have given … those with the knowledge, and especially
the economic resources to use them, an impressive dominance over the whole of
humanity and the entire world…. It is extremely risky for a small part of
humanity to have [such power].”</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: .45in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l3 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">“Leaving
an inhabitable planet to future generations is, first and foremost, up to us.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: .45in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l3 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">“…
Interdependence obliges us to think of <i>one world with a common plan</i>. Yet
[humanity has] so far proved incapable of finding effective ways of dealing
with grave environmental and social problems worldwide….[T]he use of highly
polluting fossil fuels … needs to be … replaced without delay.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><em><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"></span></em><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Katharine
Hayhoe</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">
is a world-respected atmospheric scientist <a href="https://qz.com/work/1196718/climate-scientist-katharine-hayhoe-bridges-the-gap-between-science-and-faith/ " target="_blank">based at Texas Tech University</a>,
where she is the director of the Climate Science Center</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She was recently <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katharine_Hayhoe#cite_note-30">named Chief Scientist</a> at the
Nature Conservancy</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">. She is an
effective communicator on the present climate crisis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Prof.
Hayhoe is also an evangelical Christian.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>She actively pursues efforts to bring evangelicals to accept the reality
of climate change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first person she
convinced was her husband, an evangelical pastor; they co-wrote the book,<em><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> </span></em></span><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">A Climate for
Change: Global Warming Facts for Faith-Based Decisions</span></i><em><em><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">. </span></em></em><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In 2021 she published “Saving
Us: A Climate Scientist’s Case for Hope and Healing in a Divided World” (Atria)
(reviewed <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abj9760" target="_blank">here</a></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She persistently seeks out common ground with
others, using shared values or experiences, to open the door to discuss climate
change issues reasonably.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the book review
she states “I believe that if you are someone who takes the Bible seriously,
then you already care about climate change….It’s the political polarization and
tribalism…not the Bible that cause [evangelicals] to reject what science says
about a changing climate.”</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In
distinction from Christianity, Judaism and Islam do not have a hierarchical clergy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Below are selected leaders from each faith
who have stated the theological bases of relating to the global warming/climate
change crisis.</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Judaism</span></u><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Rabbi
Pini Dunner offered an <a href="https://www.algemeiner.com/2021/08/13/why-judaism-requires-action-on-climate-change/">interesting comment</a></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><a href="https://www.algemeiner.com/2021/08/13/why-judaism-requires-action-on-climate-change/"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></a>in response to the climate extremes of the
summer of 2021, and to the strong warning in the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/" target="_blank">Sixth Assessment Report</a> </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, issued August 2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He cited:
“While at war against a city that must be besieged for a long time …, do not
destroy its trees by wielding an ax against them — … you may not cut them down (Deut.
20:19).” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rabbi Dunner finds this warns
us not to lay waste to the resources that support us.</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">He extends
this injunction to the present climate crisis: “Wanton destruction of our
planet might seem okay in the moment of execution … but ultimately it is we who
are left picking up the pieces. …The world’s industrialized nations have for
far too long disengaged themselves from absorbing the short-term pain required [to
rein in fossil fuel use] for the sake of long-term gain.”</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">David
Kraemer, a professor at the Jewish Theological Seminary, <a href="https://www.jta.org/2017/06/13/opinion/judaism-requires-us-to-pursue-the-goals-of-the-paris-climate-accords">writes </a></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>“Moses, speaking for God, says in Deuteronomy
29:13-14: ‘I make this covenant [both with you and] with those who are not with
us this day.’”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In other words, God’s
covenant applies to future generations as well as to those of us living
today.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Passages elsewhere in the Old Testament
help define the covenant, including </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Psalms (115:16) ‘the heavens belong to
the Lord while He gave the earth to the children of men’, including that humans
were given a garden (Genesis 2:15) ‘to work it <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">and to guard it.’” We may not exploit its riches, nor in the
extreme, destroy it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet we humans have
brought the destructive effects of global warming upon ourselves by wanton
exploitation of fossil fuels, leading to the present climate crisis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Prof. Kraemer concludes “</span>Judaism
… require[s] us to pursue the goals of the Paris accords and even more….In the
view of Judaism, the survival of the earth and its creatures is our
responsibility.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">After
summarizing many of the climate disasters that have befallen communities around
the world, and citing Biblical passages such as above, Richard H. Schwartz </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span><a href="https://www.tikkun.org/applying-jewish-values-to-help-heal-our-imperiled-planet/ ">summons Jews</a> to pursue the ancient rabbinic principle
of <i>tikkun olam</i> (healing and restoring the world. [“I]t is essential that
we Jews take an active role in applying our eternal, sacred values in struggles
to sharply reduce climate changes and other environmental threats.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Islam</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Professor
Mohammad Shomali, Associate Professor of Philosophy and Head of the Department
of Religious Studies at the Imam Khomeini Education & Research Institute,
Iran, <a href="https://www.thinkingfaith.org/articles/20081111_1.htm ">cites various Islamic scriptures</a></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">, from the Qur’an and by
imams.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Holy Prophet, he writes, says
“Preserve the earth because it is your mother.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Qur’an further writes “He is the one who created you from the earth
and settled you upon it, so that you might cultivate the land and construct
towns and cities in which to live.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Imam
Ali (the cousin and son-in-law of the Prophet Muhammed) wrote “Fear God
regarding His servants and lands! You are responsible for the lands and the
animals.”</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Prof. Shomali
interprets several Qur’anic passages to mean “Not only must man use natural
resources in a responsible way, but also, as the viceregent of God on the
earth, he must feel responsible for their maintenance and improvement of their
condition.” In this way we become guardians toward nature.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He writes that “human beings have been given
the responsibility of stewardship and trust …by God. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According to Islamic thought, nature is a
divine trust and man is the trustee….[S]ince future generations also have
rights to benefit from it, nature is also a trust for them.”</span><em><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"></span></em></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><em><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"></span></em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI";">A convocation of major Muslim
clerics was convened in August 2015 in anticipation of the Paris Climate
Conference that produced the 2015 Paris Agreement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The convocation issued the </span><a href=" https://www.ifees.org.uk/about/islamic-declaration-on-global-climate-change/"><em><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Islamic Declaration on Global
Climate Change</span></em></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI";">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It opens by
summarizing its understanding of global climate change: <br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI";">“This current rate of climate change cannot be sustained, and the
earth’s fine equilibrium (mīzān) may soon be lost. As we humans are woven into
the fabric of the natural world, its gifts are for us to savour. But the same
fossil fuels that helped us achieve most of the prosperity we see today are the
main cause of climate change. Excessive pollution from fossil fuels threatens
to destroy the gifts bestowed on us by God”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI";">Reflecting the concerns expressed
by climate scientists, the Declaration states </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI";">“[l]eading climate scientists now believe that a rise of two
degrees centigrade [3.6</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI";">F] in global temperature, which is considered to be the
‘tipping point’, is now very unlikely to be avoided if we continue with
business-as-usual; other leading climate scientists consider 1.5 degrees
centigrade [2.7</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI";">F] to be a more likely ‘tipping point’.” </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI";"> The Declaration then quotes verses
of the Qur’an directed toward these concerns:</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: .45in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"> <span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: SymbolMT; mso-fareast-font-family: SymbolMT;">“</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SymbolMT;">God created the earth in perfect
equilibrium </span><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri-Italic; mso-fareast-font-family: SymbolMT;">(mīzān</span></i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SymbolMT;">);….</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: .45in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-autospace: none; text-indent: -.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SymbolMT;">The present
climate change catastrophe is a result of the human disruption of this
balance”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> The
Declaration then concluded:</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> “We call
upon the [coming U.N. climate deliberations] …to [reach] an equitable and
binding conclusion, bearing in mind –</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> The scientific consensus on global climate
change, … to stabilize greenhouse gas … level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate systems [to avoid the] dire consequences to ..
Earth if we do not do so;….</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> “We call
on the people of all nations and their leaders to –</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: .45in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt;"> <span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-language-override: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Aim to phase out greenhouse gas emissions as
soon as possible …;</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: .45in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-language-override: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Commit … to 100 % renewable energy and/or a
zero emissions strategy as early as possible …;</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: .45in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-language-override: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Realize that to chase after unlimited economic
growth on a planet that is finite …is not viable. Growth must be pursued wisely
and in moderation;….</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> “ We
call upon corporations, finance, and the business sector to –</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: .45in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt;"> <span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-language-override: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">[Acknowledge] their profit-making activities,
and … reduc[e] their carbon footprint…;</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: .45in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-language-override: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">…[C]ommit themselves to 100% renewable energy …
as early as possible ….[and]</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: .45in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-language-override: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Pay more heed to social and ecological
responsibilities….”</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> Discussion</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">This
post summarizes the theologies of creation and man’s place in it as expressed
by Christianity, Judaism and Islam.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
views articulated by these three faiths are remarkably similar.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In terms of the ancient writings God created
Earth and all its inhabitants: plants, animals and fish, and humans.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The relationship of humans to creation is one
of stewardship and husbandry; humans have the responsibility to protect,
preserve, nurture and sustain the created world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The interpretation
that humans were granted (in English translation) “dominion over” the land and
seas, and the life forms inhabiting them, leading to the domination of these
resources, is interpreted as specious.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead,
humans should care for them and cultivate them in ways that sustain both humans
and the full scope of creation throughout the generations.</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In the
present day exploitation of resources (in the form of fossil fuels) enables <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>humans to enjoy lifestyles unimagined in the
holy writings of these religions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
spokespersons for these faiths understand that unbridled exploitation of creation’s
resources has led to the present climate crisis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They plead for humanity to restore the
balance of nature in order to prevent climate catastrophe.</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Our
leaders and policymakers should embrace these faith-based pleas.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The morality of the effort to
constrain global warming and climate change is profound and incontrovertible.
As</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"> moral
beings we must refrain from further greenhouse gas emissions and undertake the heroic
actions needed to result in an energy economy based on renewable resources, for
our own sake and that of future generations.</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">©
2021 Henry Auer<em><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-style: normal; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"></span></em></span></p>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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table.MsoNormalTable
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mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
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mso-para-margin:0in;
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mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
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<![endif]--></span></span><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Summary:
This series of three posts tabulates important findings from the six Assessment
Reports (ARs) that the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) has released since 1990.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="https://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2021/09/a-broken-record-greenhouse-gases.html">first post</a>, “What, Again? Greenhouse Gases Accumulate in the Atmosphere</span></i><span class="MsoHyperlink"><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">, </span></i></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><i><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">presents past greenhouse
gas (GHG) emission rates and future emission scenarios in the ARs, and presents
principles in the ARs </span></i></span><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">to keep accumulated GHG levels to as low
a level as possible.</span></i></p><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="https://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2021/10/what-again-global-warming-continues.html ">second post</a>, “What, Again? Global Warming
Continues Unabated” </span></i><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">summarizes the effects
of higher GHGs on past and future projected global temperatures, and reiterates
the need conveyed in the ARs to constrain GHG emissions by decarbonizing the
energy economy.</span></i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> </span>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">This
third post reviews specifically the effects of warming on our water environment:
melting ice domains and rising seas, and extremes of precipitation or droughts.
The six ARs warn humanity to bring future GHG emissions to near zero; but sea
level rise (SLR) is distinguished because melting of ice has passed a threshold
of irreversibility: SLR will continue for centuries or longer. <br /></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Some
may feel this series repeats refrains, looping like broken records; such people
may suffer from “climate fatigue”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Humanity, however, has not responded to the worsening climate documented
in the AR series. The critical, dire climate projections summarized in these
posts provide powerful incentives finally to take meaningful action at this
time.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 1.75in; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span></i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the
first of the three parts of its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) in August
2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ARs have been issued at intervals
of 6-7 years since 1990. They document the history of the annual rate of global
emissions of the principal GHGs, arising from human activity, and of the total
amount of GHGs accumulated in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution
began.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Using climate models and a range
of scenarios of GHG emission rates from relaxed to stringent they present
projections for each scenario of future climate characteristics and effects to
the end of this century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They also
discuss general goals (but not specific actions) for limiting future emission
rates.</span></p>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">The results and projections
presented in ARs 1-6 are broadly consistent with each other across the AR
series, but have greater specificity and stronger assessments of likelihood as
the series progresses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All the ARs have stated
the need to limit further accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere in order to
minimize the effects of global warming on Earth’s climate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The faster that emission rates are reduced
toward zero, the lower will be the total accumulation of GHGs in the
atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The cartoon below of two
cars traveling down the GHG highway captures this message.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-z-8wtFohpGo/YWc7EvY8KmI/AAAAAAAADjU/gK0fjj5GlQ4dC9lUqkV1gnxBA2Fd7U6mQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1031/GHG%2BHighwayshrunk.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="285" data-original-width="1031" height="160" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-z-8wtFohpGo/YWc7EvY8KmI/AAAAAAAADjU/gK0fjj5GlQ4dC9lUqkV1gnxBA2Fd7U6mQCLcBGAsYHQ/w579-h160/GHG%2BHighwayshrunk.png" width="579" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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cars travelled down the GHG Highway.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Each applied brakes at the same point. On the <span style="color: red;">red
</span>trip the brakes were applied gently (a metaphor for moderate GHG
mitigation measures), so the car travelled far down the highway before
stopping, leading to more GHG emissions accumulating
in the atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">(<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Stopping is a metaphor for ceasing
to emit any more GHGs.</span>)</span> </span>On the <span style="color: lime;">green </span>trip the brakes were applied hard (a metaphor
for intensive, aggressive mitigation measures), so the car traveled only a
short distance down the highway before stopping, leading to less accumulated
GHG emissions. <br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> <br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The
topics selected for this post, tabulated below in the Details section, are Past
Sea Level Rise (SLR) and precipitation (column 2), Projected Sea Level Rise and
precipitation (column 3), and Recommended Actions (column 4).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Column 2 in the table documents the greater
severity (and the greater detail of the data) of melting of glaciers and ice
sheets feeding SLR, as well as extreme precipitation events in the later ARs, across
the 30 years that the ARs have been issued. Column 3 details projections for
future SLR, which are projected to continue for centuries or millennia
regardless of mitigation measures that may be applied in the future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>SLR has two contributions (first mentioned in
column 3 of the table for the AR2 entry), the expansion of water of the oceans
as its temperature rises, and addition of new water to the oceans as glaciers
and ice sheets continue to melt.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The
second factor, melting of ice, has reached the stage of being irreversible
because the Earth has warmed sufficiently.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>A model for melting glaciers or ice sheets is presented in the graphic
below:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WQDUZ3JinSs/YWc7HfRifzI/AAAAAAAADjk/seck3zxgzTo9saQoaehUPwPU302t1RmJgCPcBGAYYCw/s2048/Melting%2BIce%2BCube.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1155" data-original-width="2048" height="225" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WQDUZ3JinSs/YWc7HfRifzI/AAAAAAAADjk/seck3zxgzTo9saQoaehUPwPU302t1RmJgCPcBGAYYCw/w400-h225/Melting%2BIce%2BCube.png" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The
melting point of ice is 0°C.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At or below
this temperature an ice cube in your refrigerator is stable, and does not
melt.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even a little above this melting
point, say at 1°C, the ice cube begins to melt slowly and forms a small puddle
as shown.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At 2°C the model shows even
more melting, yielding a smaller ice cube and a larger puddle.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now suppose the refrigerator cools back down
to less than 0°C.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The water in the
puddles is not magically restored to the remaining mass of the ice cube, but
freezes in place.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> <br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Extending
the above model and its description to nature, the melted water flows away and
ultimately drains into the ocean.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
glacier or ice sheet will be restored only if the year-round average
temperature is less than 0°C <i>and</i> there is new precipitation as ice or
snow.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But enough GHGs have already entered
Earth’s atmosphere to warm the air over glaciers and ice sheets, tilting the
balance toward net melting, assessed year-round.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is why climate projections in column 3
of the table below foresee continued SLR for hundreds or thousands of years
even if a way is ultimately found to remove accumulated GHGs from the
atmosphere. For melting ice sheets and glaciers the “tipping point” has already
been reached, and is irreversible on time scales of interest to humans.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The
Recommended Actions summarized in column 4 of the table emphasize the need for significant
lowering of the rate of emissions of GHGs, coupled with adaptation measures to
address aspects of warming that cannot be remedied by mitigation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This need was presented already in AR1
(1990), saying that immediate 60% reductions in emission rates …would stabilize
atmospheric GHGs at the then current level. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In one way or another analogous remedies were
presented in the succeeding ARs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By AR6
(2021) the table’s summary urges substantial emissions reductions over the next
few decades to reduce longer term climate risks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even so the AR warns with high confidence that
warming by 2100 will lead to a high risk of severe, widespread and irreversible
impacts, including flooding, droughts and continued SLR. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Whereas
the need to reduce emissions was expressed as early as AR1 and extends up to
the present in AR6, the strength of climate science underpinning those
conclusions has increased dramatically over time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/234-scientists-read-14-000-research-papers-to-write-the-ipcc-climate-report-heres-what-you-need-to-know-and-why-its-a-big-deal-165587">capabilities </a></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">of gathering
data and using more powerful computers to analyze them, and to develop more refined,
detailed climate models have all increased dramatically.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Incidentally the Nobel Prize in Physics,
awarded October 5, 2021, recognized the development of early climate models. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These have served as the foundation for today’s
highly refined models.)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Recent
ARs reflect this enhancement in data gathering and climate modeling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> the current first
part of AR6 <a href="https://theconversation.com/234-scientists-read-14-000-research-papers-to-write-the-ipcc-climate-report-heres-what-you-need-to-know-and-why-its-a-big-deal-165587" target="_blank">was compiled</a> by 234 climate scientists chosen from the nations of
the IPCC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They reviewed over 14,000
research articles published since AR5.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Drafts
of the chapters in AR6 were reviewed by other scientists as well as by national
governments and revised accordingly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We
can feel assured that the final text represents scientific and political
consensus views.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Conclusion</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Column
4, “Recommended Actions” in the table shown in the Details section summarizes
the increasing urgency of acting to reduce annual emission rates to near zero as
the AR series progresses. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Indeed,
actual extreme weather and climate events have become the subjects of frequent current
headlines, documenting actual heat waves and droughts, famine, uncontrolled
wildfires, intense precipitation events and flooding, and melting of glaciers
and ice sheets leading to sea level rise, effects that were only predicted in
the early ARs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Also, by AR6 the science of
attribution of extreme climate events has progressed dramatically, and permits
ascribing the severity, if not the actual occurrence or not, of events to the
effects of human-induced global warming.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Early
action such as recommended in earlier ARs could have been taken at moderate
levels of effort and expense (“Gentle Braking” in the first graphic above) to
avert <i>future</i>, if not yet apparent, climate hazards.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But policymakers around the globe did not
seize these opportunities to anywhere near the needed extent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By 2021 such extreme events are now <i>current</i>,
requiring immediate action.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Necessarily
these <i>current</i> actions must be far more aggressive, pervasive and costly (“Hard
Braking” in the graphic) in order to deal with a warming Earth approaching
criticality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They also require
fundamental and comprehensive changes in social and cultural approaches to adapt
to the consequences of warming.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Unequivocally
we must encourage our political, corporate and civic leaders to embark on bold,
comprehensive actions without further delay.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Details</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">This
writer collated the entries in the following table from either the Summary for
Policymakers, a “Headline” document or a press release, all issued by the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC </a></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></a>in conjunction with each AR.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The entries are necessarily selective rather
than comprehensive, and have been edited for brevity.<br />
<br />
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;">EVALUATIONS OF SEA
LEVEL RISE AND PRECIPITATION IN IPCC ASSESSMENT REPORTS</span></p>
</div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ro2dXxnpue4/YWc7Gcc_P1I/AAAAAAAADjg/pNQGU-vXh7Ae7TEg_PbB7RplKmd_dv9wQCPcBGAYYCw/s2680/IPCC%2BTable-SLRpng.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2680" data-original-width="979" height="1744" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ro2dXxnpue4/YWc7Gcc_P1I/AAAAAAAADjg/pNQGU-vXh7Ae7TEg_PbB7RplKmd_dv9wQCPcBGAYYCw/w638-h1744/IPCC%2BTable-SLRpng.png" width="638" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></div><div><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">© 2021 Henry Auer</span></p></div>Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-54346624058003089882021-10-07T15:29:00.001-04:002021-10-08T12:55:45.940-04:00What, Again? Global Warming Continues Unabated<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span><i><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Summary:
This series of posts tabulates important findings from the six Assessment
Reports (ARs) that the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) has released since 1990.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
<a href="https://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2021/09/a-broken-record-greenhouse-gases.html" target="_blank">previous post</a>, “What, Again? Greenhouse Gases Accumulate in the Atmosphere"</span></i><span class="MsoHyperlink"><i><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">, </span></i></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><i><span color="windowtext" face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">summarizing the six
ARs, presents past greenhouse gas (GHG) emission rates, discusses future
emission scenarios and proposes principles to minimize further emissions </span></i></span><i><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">to keep
accumulated GHG levels to as low a level as possible.</span></i><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> <br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">This
post presents the direct consequences of rising GHG emissions: the increase in global
average temperatures and its consequences, as foreseen in differing emission
scenarios over the three decades that ARs have been issued. <i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Extreme weather and climate
leads to significant economic and social harms and damages.</span></i> A final post will deal
specifically with the effects of warming on our water environment: extremes of
precipitation or its failure, melting ice domains and rising seas. <br /></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Some
may feel this series repeats refrains, looping like broken records; such people
may suffer from “climate fatigue”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Humanity, however, has not responded to the worsening climate documented
in the AR series. The critical, dire climate projections summarized in these
posts should provide powerful incentives to take meaningful action at this
time.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*</span><i><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> <br /></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the
first of three volumes of its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) in August
2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ARs have been issued at intervals
of 6-7 years since 1990. They document the history of the annual rate of global
emissions of the principal GHGs, arising from human activity, and of the total
amount of GHGs accumulated in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution (Ind.
Rev.) began.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Using climate models and a
range of scenarios of GHG emission rates they present projections for each
scenario of future climate characteristics and effects to the end of this
century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They also discuss general goals
(but not specific policies) for limiting future emission rates.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The
results and projections presented in ARs 1-6 are broadly consistent with each
other across the AR series, but have greater specificity and stronger assessments
of likelihood as the series progresses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They record the profound increase, due to human activity, of accumulated
atmospheric GHGs, especially carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>), across the years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most GHGs do not dissipate in the atmosphere;
they continue accumulating to higher levels as long as their annual emission
rates continue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s as if a tub fills
higher and higher with water (representing GHGs), as long as the faucet is
open.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When the emissions (the faucet)
are turned off, the level in the tub doesn’t get lower; the water/GHG content
stays at the level accumulated up to that time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Being greenhouse gases, they retain more and more heat as their level
increases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The result is that global
average temperatures continue rising, causing damaging extreme events the world
over.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The
graphic below shows the coupled relationship between atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>
levels from 1880 to 2019 and corresponding yearly global average temperatures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The correlation </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NyqYmKdLi8c/YV8-2mEYP7I/AAAAAAAADiI/B8TrE1uLT_Uxl7ObsrpUK8NOLWw_-hdlACLcBGAsYHQ/s1092/211007%2BClimCtrl-CO2%2526Temp1880-2019.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="819" data-original-width="1092" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NyqYmKdLi8c/YV8-2mEYP7I/AAAAAAAADiI/B8TrE1uLT_Uxl7ObsrpUK8NOLWw_-hdlACLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h300/211007%2BClimCtrl-CO2%2526Temp1880-2019.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><p><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Overlaid
graphs of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration in parts per million (ppm; <span style="color: #ed7d31; mso-themecolor: accent2;">orange </span>line, <span style="color: #ed7d31; mso-themecolor: accent2;">orange</span> numerical scale on
the right vertical axis) and yearly values of the global average temperature in
</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">°</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">C (white line, white
numerical scale on the left vertical axis; for corresponding </span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">°</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">F multiply by x1.8).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Temperature values shown are the deviations
from the 30-year average temperature from 1881-1910.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> Source:
Climate Central </span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/"><span color="windowtext">https://www.climatecentral.org/</span></a></span> using data
from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for
Space Studies (NASA GISS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Centers for<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Environmental Information
(NOAA NCEI), and NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories (ESRL).</span>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="color: #92d050; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">is
remarkable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Elsewhere in the ARs (but
not included in this series of posts) the IPCC has shown that it is only due to
the CO<sub>2</sub> and other GHGs that have been added to the Earth system from
human actions that the global temperature has risen as shown in the graphic,
and not because of any other potential factor.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The
topics selected for this post, tabulated below in the Details section, are Past
Temperature Rise, Projected Further Rise in Global Average Temperature, and
Projected Warming Patterns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As seen in
the table, the authors of AR1 recognized already in 1990 that because of the accumulation
GHGs the Earth system was warming (Column 2). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The global average temperature has continued
rising, by 2021 (AR6) reaching 1.07</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">°</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">C
(2.06</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">°</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">F) above the 1850-1900
average value, early in the Ind. Rev. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">In
future decades the temperature is projected to continue increasing (Column 3),
depending on the emission scenario, from stringent to relaxed annual emission
rates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In AR6, compared to 1850-1900
(early in the Ind. Rev.), stringent emission scenarios project 1.0-1.8°C
(1.8-3.2°F) warming by 2100, whereas the relaxed scenario projects 3.3-5.7°C
(5.9-10.3°F) warming. Finally, the need to reduce annual emissions was
recognized beginning with AR1 and reiterated, with increasing urgency,
throughout the series. Current goals are to keep warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F;
optimal) or 2°C (3.6°F; acceptable) above pre-industrial values (AR6). Higher
global temperatures are projected (Column 4) to lead to extreme weather and
climate events, many of which we are already experiencing around the globe.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Whereas
the need to reduce emissions is expressed in AR1 and extends up to the present
in AR6, the strength of climate science underpinning those conclusions has
increased dramatically over time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
<a href="https://theconversation.com/234-scientists-read-14-000-research-papers-to-write-the-ipcc-climate-report-heres-what-you-need-to-know-and-why-its-a-big-deal-165587">capabilities </a></span><a href="https://theconversation.com/234-scientists-read-14-000-research-papers-to-write-the-ipcc-climate-report-heres-what-you-need-to-know-and-why-its-a-big-deal-165587"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></a><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://theconversation.com/234-scientists-read-14-000-research-papers-to-write-the-ipcc-climate-report-heres-what-you-need-to-know-and-why-its-a-big-deal-165587"> of gathering
data</a> and using more powerful computers to analyze them, and to develop more refined,
detailed climate models have all increased dramatically.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Incidentally the Nobel Prize in Physics,
awarded October 5, 2021, recognized the development of early climate models.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These have served as the foundation for today’s
highly refined models.)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Recent
ARs reflect this enhancement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For
example</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> the <a href="https://theconversation.com/234-scientists-read-14-000-research-papers-to-write-the-ipcc-climate-report-heres-what-you-need-to-know-and-why-its-a-big-deal-165587" target="_blank">current first volume of AR6</a> was compiled by 234 climate scientists chosen from among all the
nations of the IPCC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They reviewed over
14,000 research articles published since AR5.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Drafts of the chapters in AR6 were reviewed by other scientists as well
as by national governments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We can feel
assured that the final text represents scientific and political consensus
views.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Conclusion</span></u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">In
the table shown in the Details section Column 4, “Projected Warming Patterns”,
summarizes the increasing urgency of acting to reduce annual emission rates to near
zero as the AR series progresses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>AR2 as
long ago as 1995 foresaw some regions of the Earth having more severe floods or
droughts while others would be less affected.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There would be more extremely hot days and fewer extremely cold days.
The forecasts in AR4 in 2007 are made with higher confidence than in AR3.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>AR6 in 2021 foresees continued warming with
worse hot extremes and droughts in some areas.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Indeed,
actual extreme weather and climate events have become the subjects of frequent current
headlines, documenting heat waves and droughts, famine, uncontrolled wildfires,
intense precipitation events and flooding, and melting of glaciers and ice
sheets leading to sea level rise, documenting effects that were only predicted
in the early ARs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Also, by AR6 the
science of attribution of extreme climate events has progressed dramatically,
and permits ascribing the severity, if not the actual occurrence or not, of
events to the effects of global warming.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Early
action could have been taken at moderate levels of effort and expense to avert <i>future</i>,
if not yet apparent, hazards such as described in Columns 3 and 4 of the table.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Such opportunities were not seized.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By 2021 such hazardous events are now <i>current</i>,
requiring immediate action.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Necessarily
these <i>current</i> actions must be far more aggressive, pervasive and costly
in order to deal with a warming Earth approaching criticality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They also require fundamental and
comprehensive changes in social and cultural approaches to adapt to the consequences
of warming.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Unequivocally
we must encourage our political, corporate and civic leaders to embark on bold,
comprehensive actions without further delay.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Details</span></u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">This
writer collated the entries in the following table from either the Summary for
Policymakers, a “Headline” document or a press release, all issued by the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/" target="_blank">IPCC</a> </span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>in conjunction with each AR.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The entries are necessarily selective rather
than comprehensive, and have been edited for brevity.<br />
<br />
</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif">EVALUATIONS OF
GLOBAL WARMING AND TEMPERATURE IN IPCC ASSESSMENT REPORTS</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif"></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-49jSdcxIbtE/YV9Jc0Q6MYI/AAAAAAAADiY/-xQAw9d-k-c0XoOQ97erMJPH8ZeUUKEugCLcBGAsYHQ/s2798/IPCC%2BTable-GWpng.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2798" data-original-width="1124" height="1453" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-49jSdcxIbtE/YV9Jc0Q6MYI/AAAAAAAADiY/-xQAw9d-k-c0XoOQ97erMJPH8ZeUUKEugCLcBGAsYHQ/w583-h1453/IPCC%2BTable-GWpng.png" width="583" /></a></div><br />© 2021 Henry Auer<p></p>Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-13623333793119003692021-09-30T16:34:00.017-04:002021-09-30T16:56:03.724-04:00What, Again? Greenhouse Gases Accumulate in the Atmosphere<p><span style="font-family: arial;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Summary:
This post tabulates important findings from the six Assessment Reports (ARs)
that the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has
released since 1990.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As shown here,
climate scientists have recognized, as of the date of each AR, that a) man-made
GHGs continue to be emitted and accumulate further in the atmosphere, b) predicted
emissions risk accumulating climatically dangerous levels of GHGs, and c)
principles are proposed to minimize further emissions so as to keep accumulated
GHG levels to as low a level as possible.</span></i>
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> Here
attention is restricted to three topics, a historical review of accumulated
atmospheric GHGs, projections of future emission rates and accumulated totals,
and ways to stabilize accumulated atmospheric GHGs. Coming posts will consider
other aspects of climate, presented over the three decades that ARs have been
issued, resulting from the projected accumulated GHG levels.</span></i></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Some
may feel this and the coming posts sound like broken records; they may suffer
from “climate fatigue”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Humanity,
however, has not responded to the worsening climate documented in the AR series.
The critical, dire climate projections summarized here should provide powerful incentives
to take meaningful action at this time.</span></i></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 1.75in; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>*</span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the
first of three volumes of its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) in August
2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ARs have been issued at intervals
of 6-7 years since 1990. They document the history of the annual rate of global
GHG emissions, due to human activity, of the principal greenhouse gases (GHGs)
and of the total amount of GHGs accumulated in the atmosphere since the
industrial revolution (Ind. Rev.) began.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Using climate models and a range of scenarios of GHG emission rates they
present projections for each scenario of future climate characteristics to the
end of this century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They also discuss
general principles (but not specific policies) for limiting future emission rates.</span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The
general results and projections presented in ARs 1-6 are broadly consistent
with each other across the AR series.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They record the profound increase, due to human activity, in accumulated
atmospheric GHGs across the years, emphasizing the results for the most
significant GHG, carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Accumulated CO<sub>2</sub> is shown in the
graphic below, adapted here by adding vertical lines for the years in which the
various ARs were released, as well as the additional red line corresponding to
the date of the Paris Climate <br /></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DRT_BVXBxic/YVYLe8vhc4I/AAAAAAAADhA/Vyy5wYMHCugT4eKyAc0xGqO1sAkA1jeWACLcBGAsYHQ/s2048/210928%2BKeeling%2BCurve%2BAnnotated.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1678" data-original-width="2048" height="328" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DRT_BVXBxic/YVYLe8vhc4I/AAAAAAAADhA/Vyy5wYMHCugT4eKyAc0xGqO1sAkA1jeWACLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h328/210928%2BKeeling%2BCurve%2BAnnotated.png" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;">Direct
measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (smoothed over the 12 months of a
year) taken atop the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii beginning in 1958.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The base level prior to the Ind. Rev. is 280
ppm.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ppm, parts of carbon dioxide in 1
million parts of air. The vertical lines represent the dates of issue of the
respective Assessment Report (AR), and the date of the Paris Agreement.
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> <br /></span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Agreement of </span></span>2015.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The principal goal of the Paris Agreement is to </span></span>reduce emissions sufficiently to </span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">keep </span>the
increase in the global average </span></span>temperature to below 2.0</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">°</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">C (3.8</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">°</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">F), and preferably 1.5</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">°</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">C (2.7</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">°</span><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">F) by 2100. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is seen in the graphic that there is a
consistent increase in CO<sub>2</sub> emission rate beginning with the first
measurements in 1958 and continuing throughout the three decades following AR1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">The
topics selected for this post are tabulated below in the Details section.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The authors of AR1 recognized already in 1990
that atmospheric accumulation of man-made GHGs was increasing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As the graphic above and the entries for the successive
ARs in the table show, the growth in accumulated levels continued unabated up
to the present (AR6).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Furthermore, projected
future trends for various emission scenarios were generally comparable
throughout the series.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Finally, the need
to reduce annual emissions was recognized from the beginning and reiterated,
with increasing urgency, throughout the series.</span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> Whereas
the need to reduce emissions begins in AR1 and extends up to the present in
AR6, the strength of climate science underpinning those conclusions has
increased dramatically.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://theconversation.com/234-scientists-read-14-000-research-papers-to-write-the-ipcc-climate-report-heres-what-you-need-to-know-and-why-its-a-big-deal-165587" target="_blank">For example</a> this first of the three volumes of AR6 was compiled by 234 climate scientists
chosen from among all the nations of the IPCC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They reviewed over 14,000 research articles published since AR5.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://theconversation.com/234-scientists-read-14-000-research-papers-to-write-the-ipcc-climate-report-heres-what-you-need-to-know-and-why-its-a-big-deal-165587">The capabilities</a> of gathering data and using more powerful computers to analyze them, and to
develop more refined, detailed climate models, have all increased dramatically.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> Drafts
of the chapters in AR6 were reviewed by other scientists as well as by national
governments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We can feel assured that
the final text represents scientific and political consensus views.</span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Conclusion</span></u></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">In
the table given below in the Details section the column “Actions to Stabilize
Atmospheric GHGs” summarizes the increasing urgency of acting to reduce annual
emission rates essentially to zero as the AR series progresses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For AR1 and AR2 ambitious reduction goals
were already stated, but planetary manifestations of the effects of global
warming were not yet readily distinguishable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>By the time of AR6, 2021, extreme weather and climate events have become
the subjects of frequent headlines, distributed across heat waves and droughts,
famine, uncontrolled wildfires across the globe, intense precipitation events
and flooding, and melting of glaciers and ice sheets leading to sea level
rise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Also, by AR6 the science of attribution
of extreme climate events has progressed dramatically, and permits ascribing
the severity, if not the actual occurrence or not, of events to the effects of
global warming.</span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">As
noted in the Actions column of the table, early action could have been taken at
moderate levels of effort and expense, to avert <i>future</i>, if not yet
apparent, hazards.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Such opportunities
were not seized.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By 2021 hazardous events
are now <i>current</i>, requiring immediate action.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Necessarily these <i>current</i> actions must
be far more aggressive, pervasive and expensive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They also require fundamental and
comprehensive changes in social and cultural approaches to the problem.</span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">We
must encourage our political, corporate and civic leaders to accept these
challenges and overcome them without further delay.</span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><u><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">Details</span></u></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">
</span><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Trebuchet MS",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">This writer collated the entries in the
following table from either the Summary for Policymakers, a “Headline” document
or a press release, all issued by the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/" target="_blank">IPCC</a> in conjunction with each AR.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The entries are necessarily selective rather
than comprehensive, and have been edited for brevity.</span><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinGpI3ZnBbztztU3_mWjhMM4-m0UivHGdWBtXu13kwu17el5OtLET7adTvEbSZ5X5jEgDJzdzzwQswNS1nN2mFCVgN-0c3twuCtu8oD8mJMB3vj1FeTFxbt8z4nfJuI9Vg02NxNoqOAbw/s2048/IPCC+Table-GHGs+2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="1114" height="1203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinGpI3ZnBbztztU3_mWjhMM4-m0UivHGdWBtXu13kwu17el5OtLET7adTvEbSZ5X5jEgDJzdzzwQswNS1nN2mFCVgN-0c3twuCtu8oD8mJMB3vj1FeTFxbt8z4nfJuI9Vg02NxNoqOAbw/w656-h1203/IPCC+Table-GHGs+2.png" width="656" /></a><span> </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>© 2021 Henry Auer</span></span></div></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span>Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-31718203209926278002021-09-09T22:11:00.004-04:002021-12-22T21:54:47.119-05:00Carbon Dioxide Is Not Just Hot Air<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Summary</span></u></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Scientific research is pursued as an unbiased, objective inquiry into
the properties of the natural world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Following
this framework the foundations of climate science have been laid over the last
two hundred years, establishing that man-made production of carbon dioxide
induces an atmospheric greenhouse effect.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Current political influence seeks wrongly to raise doubts about these immutable
facts.</span></i>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Introduction:
The Pursuit of Science</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Scientific investigation is based on
independent, unbiased, verifiable research; pursuit of new knowledge that
builds on the results of previous studies; and studies inspired by new
hypotheses or pursuing studies yielding new understanding of the natural
world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>New knowledge can lead to new
technologies that broadly benefit our lives. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Our
current understanding of the atmospheric greenhouse effect and the role of
excess carbon dioxide produced by humanity’s use of fossil fuels began two
centuries ago</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.
The field grew during a time when scientific endeavor was pursued for its own
value.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Contrary to the present times
extra-scientific factors, such as political influences, were essentially
inconceivable.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Here five
landmarks in the development of what we now call the atmospheric greenhouse
effect are summarized and discussed. More complete information is given <a href="http://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/foundations-of-climate-science.html">here</a></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In the late
18<sup>th</sup> century <u>Horace-Benedict de Saussure</u> developed an
enclosed box, blackened on the inside and covered by glass panes, containing a
thermometer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In sunlight the temperature
inside this box rose to be much higher than that of the air outside.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He called the box a heliothermometer.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Jean-Baptiste
Joseph Fourier</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">
was a French physicist, interested in studying heat flow at a global
scale.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the 1820’s he knew of de
Saussure’s box, and analogized its properties to those of the Earth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He likened the glass panes to the Earth’s
atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He distinguished between the
visible light of the sun passing unchanged through the atmosphere (just as they
did with the glass panes) and striking the Earth, and invisible heat radiation,
which he hypothesized was confined by the atmosphere (just as the panes
appeared to retain heat inside the box).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The heat radiation that cannot escape warms the Earth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Eunice
Foote</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">, an American<u>,
and John Tyndall</u>, a British physicist, worked independently in the late
1850’s to 1860’s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both showed that
carbon dioxide retains heat.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Tyndall also
found several other gases that absorb heat radiation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These results provided concrete evidence that
components in the atmosphere could retain heat within the Earth system, instead
of radiating the heat into space.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In the 1890’s
<u>Svante Arrhenius</u>, a Swedish physical chemist, aware of Tyndall’s work,
feared that the excess carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere from burning fossil
fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) would warm the Earth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He performed extensive calculations, by hand,
predicting significant increases in global temperature if fossil fuel use were
to continue.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Charles
Keeling</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">, an American
geochemist, was the first to measure the carbon dioxide level in the air
directly, beginning in 1958.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He showed
that the amount was higher than at the time of Arrhenius, and that it increased
year by year due to continued use of fossil fuels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His observations vindicated the fears that
Arrhenius had expressed about increased amounts of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Others have since verified
the predicted rise in the temperature of the Earth.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Conclusion</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Scientific
investigation is based on an unbiased pursuit of new verifiable knowledge,
gained by factual investigation into the properties of the natural world
without preconceived biases on how the results should turn out.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Development
of climate science followed the same principles.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This post highlights five main contributions
to this endeavor starting in the late eighteenth century. De Saussure’s
heliothermometer is now understood to be a classical greenhouse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The work described here has demonstrated the
contribution of carbon dioxide to the atmospheric greenhouse effect, and the
rapid warming of our planet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Developments in recent years and days, building on the work of these
pioneers, makes clear that the world’s energy economy must decarbonize as
rapidly as possible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Yet
commercial interests have exerted their considerable political influence to
maintain the status quo.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They seek to
discredit the science of global warming by questioning its findings without
supporting scientific data. They could just as readily have embraced the new
reality, and committed themselves to new business models, free of fossil fuels,
yet which have comparable potential for entrepreneurship and pursuit of profit.</span></p>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
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<![endif]--></p>Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-7874790818221360192019-12-18T10:53:00.000-05:002019-12-18T10:53:29.149-05:00“U.N. Climate Talks End With Few Commitments and a ‘Lost’ Opportunity” <span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“U.N. Climate Talks End With Few Commitments and a
‘Lost’ Opportunity” is the heading in the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/15/climate/cop25-un-climate-talks-madrid.html?searchResultPosition=6">New York Times</a>,
December 15, 2019, reporting on the largely failed conclusion to the annual UN climate
conference held in Madrid, Spain.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Recent
annual meetings are follow-ups to the conference in Paris four years earlier,
which produced the 2015 Paris Agreement on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was agreed to by the almost 200 member
nations of the UN, and has the goal of keeping the increase in the long-term global
average temperature below 2</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C (3.6</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">F) above the pre-industrial
temperature.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It also included the hope
that the limit could be more stringent, keeping the increase below 1.5</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The Agreement is intended to minimize further global
warming and the resulting harms to the world’s climate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Warming arises because the growth in the
world’s economies in the last 1½-2 centuries has relied largely on energy
derived by burning carbon-containing fuels (fossil fuels: coal, petroleum and
natural gas) that release carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>; a GHG) when burned.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The added CO<sub>2</sub> accumulates in the
atmosphere and remains there for centuries, producing increased temperatures by
an atmospheric greenhouse effect.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>China’s
dramatic economic growth over the past 3 decades, for example, closely parallels
its growth in use of fossil fuels and other energy sources.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The nations of the UN signed on to the Paris
Agreement because, in contrast to the earlier Kyoto Protocol, each nation’s contribution
to reducing emissions is voluntary.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Analysis of those contributions at the time (<a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/350/6265/1168.full.pdf">Fawcett and coworkers</a>, 2015) already showed, however, that they were inadequate to produce the GHG
reductions needed to stay within the 2</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C limit.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">One objective at the Madrid 2019 gathering was for
the nations to generate more ambitious goals to reduce GHG emission rates that
would lead to compliance with the Paris Agreement limit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Recently the U. S. under President Trump has
stated its intention to withdraw entirely from the Agreement, to take effect
just before the next meeting in 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As
the New York Times reports, for this reason “…it was the last chance, at least
for some time, for [America to negotiate] — and perhaps a turning point in
global climate negotiations, given the influence that Washington has long
wielded…in the discussions.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">But the U. S. was not alone in hindering progress. Helen
Mountford, a vice president at World Resources Institute, said “[m]ost of the
large emitters were missing in action or obstructive.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nations with significant rates of GHG emissions,
including China and India, “balked at suggestions of more ambitious climate
targets next year.” </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Ms. Mountford further lamented that the failure to
act in Madrid “reflects how disconnected many national leaders are from the
urgency of the science and the demands of their citizens.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“The urgency of the science” is apparent in reviews
of the worsening warming and climate appearing in rapid succession in the past
year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) issued its <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">report</a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "segoe ui" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">,
“Global warming of 1.5°C - - An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global
warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas
emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the
threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate
poverty” in October 2018.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The IPCC
reports that in the three years since the Paris Agreement, atmospheric GHG content
and temperatures were rising faster than foreseen earlier.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Therefore it feels we must bring worldwide
GHG emissions to near zero by about 2040, earlier than recommended in previous
reviews.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The Arctic is warming twice as fast as elsewhere on
Earth, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/10/climate/climate-change-arctic-warming.html">reported</a> in December
2019.
This finding has significance throughout the world, because the warmer
temperatures are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1855-2">now melting</a> the Greenland Ice Sheet very rapidly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the 1990’s melting ice
was roughly balanced by new precipitation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But by the 2010’s net loss of ice occurred due both to excessive surface
melting and faster glacier calving.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Overall,
ice loss from Greenland alone contributed 10 mm (0.4 in) to global sea level
rise in this period.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Oceans absorb about 90% of the excess heat retained
by the earth, by transfer of the heat from the atmosphere to the water.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This heating has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/10/climate/ocean-warming-climate-change.html">accelerated in recent years</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Water expands as it warms, contributing an
additional amount to sea level rise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Changing temperatures in the oceans have led to coral die-offs (some of
which is not recovered), and to changes in the species distribution of sea
animals because they are exquisitely sensitive to the ocean temperature.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This impacts human fishing productivity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Warm water also evaporates more moisture into
the air, making hurricanes more violent and releasing more rainfall, as has
been observed in recent years.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 4pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“The demands of [nations’]
citizens” have grown more insistent in the past year. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg,
recently named TIME magazine’s <a href="https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2019-greta-thunberg/">Person of the Year</a></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">, has stimulated
a worldwide climate movement among youth, and adults.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Our children understand that they will experience
the climate extremes resulting from adults’ climate inaction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Madrid meeting shows that the world’s
resolve meaningfully to combat global warming and climate change appears
compromised by the absence of international political will, presumably abetted
by economic factors and fossil fuel commercial interests.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 4pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">But optimism
persists nevertheless.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As Ms. Thunberg <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/shows/2019/12/12?autostart=true">concluded</a>
in her speech to Madrid attendees</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><u><span style="color: #0563c1;">, </span></u></span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“[T]here <i>is</i>
hope….It does not come from the government or corporations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It comes from the people….People are ready
for change….Every great change …come[s] from the people.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">© 2019 Henry Auer</span>Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-20215075129189971882019-12-13T18:28:00.000-05:002019-12-13T18:31:46.576-05:00From Lone Climate Protester to A Worldwide Movement: Greta Thunberg<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">On Dec. 11, 2019
<a href="https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2019-greta-thunberg/">TIME magazine named </a></span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Greta
Thunberg, the 16-year old Swedish climate activist, its Person of the Year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A little more than one year ago (i.e. at age
15) she felt sufficiently worried</span></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eKU2WM3kz1Y/XfQa7rF570I/AAAAAAAADLk/hKO4qLxMx7k_pPF3265ELCugpO-jqPWhwCEwYBhgL/s1600/191211%2BTIME-GretaThunberg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="900" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eKU2WM3kz1Y/XfQa7rF570I/AAAAAAAADLk/hKO4qLxMx7k_pPF3265ELCugpO-jqPWhwCEwYBhgL/s320/191211%2BTIME-GretaThunberg.png" width="240" /></a></span></div>
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</span><br />
<div style="margin-left: .5in; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Source: </span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><a href="https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2019-greta-thunberg/">https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2019-greta-thunberg/</a>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">about the
effects that climate change was wreaking that she felt she needed to take
action.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She began once-weekly stints of
abandoning her school and sitting, alone, in front of the Swedish Parliament
building in Stockholm with a sign reading “Student Climate Strike”.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">After a few
weeks others, especially youth, took up her cause and the numbers grew to the
tens, and soon became an international movement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By December 2018 she had gained sufficient
renown to address the 24<sup>th</sup> annual United Nations climate conference
in Katowice, Poland.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(The 21<sup>st</sup>
conference is the one that produced the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This writer transcribed passages from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFkQSGyeCWg">her address</a></span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFkQSGyeCWg"><span class="resulturlfull"><span style="text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"></span></span></a></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">, shown in this
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<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dqhmAXyemkY/XfQa8dn9_II/AAAAAAAADLw/4WW5KdsHHAYj7Z9U062Yue4N6vIhP-pewCEwYBhgL/s1600/2018%2BCOP24%2BGretaThunberg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="551" data-original-width="1367" height="256" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dqhmAXyemkY/XfQa8dn9_II/AAAAAAAADLw/4WW5KdsHHAYj7Z9U062Yue4N6vIhP-pewCEwYBhgL/s640/2018%2BCOP24%2BGretaThunberg.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
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mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Screenshot: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFkQSGyeCWg"><span class="resulturldomain">https://www.youtube.com</span><span class="resulturlfull"><span style="text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">/watch?v=VFkQSGyeCWg</span></span></a>;
Image by Henry E. Auer</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">“You [adults] are not mature enough to tell it like
it is.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even that burden you leave to us
children ….In 2078 I will celebrate my 75<sup>th</sup> birthday.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>[Maybe my children] will ask me about
you.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe they will ask why you didn’t
do anything while there still was time to act….We<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>cannot solve the crisis without treating it
as a crisis….We have run out of excuses and we are running out of time.”</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Since
then, Ms. Thunberg has galvanized an entirely new climate movement, comprised largely
of youth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The power of her message led
to worldwide climate demonstrations on Sept. 20, 2019, and to speaking to the
U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 23.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most
recently, after sailing to and from the U. S. without fossil fuels, on a boat
equipped with solar panels, <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/shows/2019/12/12?autostart=true">she spoke</a> </span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">at
the 25<sup>th</sup> U.N. climate conference in Madrid, Spain on Dec. 11, 2019 (her
speech beginning at about 16:00 min. at the linked video).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was only moments before TIME announced honoring
her as Person of the Year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here are
excerpts from her speech, transcribed and edited by this writer.</span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">“…For about a year, I have been talking about our
rapidly declining carbon budget….<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But …this
is still being ignored….[T]he <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">SR 1.5 IPCC Report</a> [Special 1.5</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">C Report, from the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] that
came out last year [says] if we are to …[limit] the temperature rise [since the
industrial revolution began] to below 1.5</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">C
we had, on Jan. 1, 2018, 420 gigatonnes [gT, billions of metric tons] of CO<sub>2</sub>
left [to emit into the atmosphere]….<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And
of course that number is much lower today [2 years later] as we emit about 42 gT
every year….[T]hat remaining budget will be gone within about 8 years…</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">“…[T]hese figures…do not say anything about the
aspect of equity, which is absolutely essential to make the Paris Agreement
work…[<i>applause</i>].<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That means that
richer countries need to…get down to…zero emissions much faster, then help poorer
countries do the same, so that [they] can raise their living standards….</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">“How do you react to these numbers without feeling…some…panic?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How do you respond to the fact that nothing
is being done about this without feeling anger? And …without sounding alarmist?....</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">“Recently [some] countries pledged to reduce … emissions
… by so and so many percent by this or that date….This may sound impressive …, but…
this is not leadership…this is <i>mis</i>leading….These pledges don’t include
the immediate yearly reduction rates needed…to stay within the remaining tiny [carbon]
budget…</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">“Finding holistic solutions is what [this 25<sup>th</sup>
meeting] should be all about.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
instead, it [becomes] an opportunity for countries to negotiate loopholes and raise
their emissions [<i>applause</i>]….</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">“This has to stop.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>What we need is real drastic emission cuts….[They have] to stop….We need
to keep the carbon in the ground….[T]he changes required are nowhere in
sight.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The politics needed do not exist
today….[T]he real danger is when politicians and CEOs are making it look like real
action is happening, when in fact almost nothing is being done apart from
clever accounting and creative PR [<i>applause</i>]….</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">“[T]here <i>is</i> hope….It does not come from the
government or corporations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It comes
from the people….People are ready for change….Every great change …come[s] from
the people.”</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 4.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Greta Thunberg
has mobilized youth (and adults) because her generation, born in the years just
following the dawn of the new millennium, is the first destined to experience
the full brunt of the climate crisis foreseen in climate models that typically
extend from the present to the end of this century. Their lifetimes will extend
throughout most or all of this span.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These
reports include the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">IPCC Special Report</a>-Global Warming of 1.5 ºC <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>referred to by Ms. Thunberg, and the U. S.
<a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/">Fourth National Climate Assessment</a></span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">,
</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">among
many others.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Climate harms
are already fully apparent throughout the world on almost a daily basis in news
reports in the last few years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These include
unprecedented heat and drought, resulting shrinkage and loss of water
resources, extensive and terrifying wildfires in both virgin woodlands and
inhabited regions, extreme precipitation leading to freshwater flooding, agricultural
lands removed from routine production due to excessive flooding, progressive sea
level rise, and extreme tropical storms that are larger and longer-lasting than
in the past, and extreme shoreline storm surges.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unchecked warming of the earth’s atmosphere
is modeled to make these harms and damages even more severe than currently
experienced.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These predicted harms constitute
a true climate crisis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">These are the reasons we
must heed our youth activists; our actions can help achieve the climate
mitigation steps needed for their lifetime wellbeing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The IPCC Special Report-Global Warming of 1.5
ºC makes clear that drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emission rates must be
fully under way by about 2030 and those rates reduced to near zero by about 2040.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As Ms. Thunberg signals, the Special Report
specifies that our remaining carbon budget is rapidly dwindling.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span>© 2019 Henry Auer</span>Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-83347660833597661282019-07-12T13:21:00.000-04:002019-07-12T16:12:06.110-04:00We All Feel the Increasing Impacts of Global Warming<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
<i><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Summary:
All over the world unprecedented weather extremes are occurring, with profound
effects on human activities and health.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This post reports some recent climate events.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These instances are consistent with the
forecasts that climate scientists have been making for several decades.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The IPCC issued a new, more urgent report in
October 2018 specifying that we have to keep the world temperature increase
below 1.5</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">°</span></span></i><i><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">C above
pre-industrial levels, primarily by eliminating all emissions worldwide in
about two decades.</span></i></span><br />
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</span><br />
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</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Tidal
flooding, Eastern U. S.</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many cities
along the Eastern seacoast of the U. S. already suffer fair-weather tidal
flooding due to rising sea levels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According
to the U. S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as reported
by <a href="https://www.npr.org/programs/all-things-considered/2019/07/10/740176584">National Public Radio</a> (NPR), tidal flooding is worsening in more than 40 U. S. coastal cities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most of these flood days are not related to storm
activity, but rather to rising sea level.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Tides are worst, i.e., highest, when the moon is full or new.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This image </span><br />
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XvP_kS5DXHc/XSi575vIYfI/AAAAAAAADC8/1UzykhiNy74Ke_9LDP-Rzqu3kzam7BDUQCLcBGAs/s1600/2017%2BAnnapolis%2Bflood.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="975" data-original-width="1300" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XvP_kS5DXHc/XSi575vIYfI/AAAAAAAADC8/1UzykhiNy74Ke_9LDP-Rzqu3kzam7BDUQCLcBGAs/s400/2017%2BAnnapolis%2Bflood.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Source:
NPR All Things Considered <a href="https://www.npr.org/programs/all-things-considered/2019/07/10/740176584"><span style="color: #0563c1;">https://www.npr.org/programs/all-things-considered/2019/07/10/740176584</span></a>
</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">shows
downtown Annapolis, MD, founded three centuries ago on the shores of Chesapeake
Bay, flooded during a high tide in 2017.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>As NPR reports, NOAA finds that tidal flooding events in Annapolis have
increased by 925% over the last 50 years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The city is planning a Flood Mitigation Project in conjunction with many
agencies including the U. S. Naval Academy, which is located in Annapolis.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Charleston,
SC is also suffering from worsening ocean flooding (<a href="https://www.npr.org/programs/all-things-considered/2019/07/10/740176584">NPR</a>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The city is built on a low-lying
peninsula, exposed to the sea.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
addition, in recent years flooding has been aggravated by extreme rainfall.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both of these factors result from worsening
global warming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The city issues flood
warnings as frequently as weekly during the summer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Its officials now understand they must plan
for 2-3 feet (0.6-0.9 m) of flooding over the next 50 years.</span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Temperatures
for January-May 2019 for most regions around the globe are warmer than average
or set warmest records</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">, whereas only a very few regions were cooler than
average (see the following image).</span></div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V1u4RdaylFI/XSi59TTT8sI/AAAAAAAADDM/xK6asdCvM1g-aI4F-TRa8xHlW8S7T2gpgCEwYBhgL/s1600/NOAA-NCEI%2Bglobaltemps%2BJan-Jun19.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="765" data-original-width="990" height="494" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V1u4RdaylFI/XSi59TTT8sI/AAAAAAAADDM/xK6asdCvM1g-aI4F-TRa8xHlW8S7T2gpgCEwYBhgL/s640/NOAA-NCEI%2Bglobaltemps%2BJan-Jun19.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><strong>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Source:
</span>NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the
Climate: Global Climate Report for May 2019, published online June 2019,
retrieved on July 10, 2019; <span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201905"><span style="color: #0563c1;">https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201905</span></a>
.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
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<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
average is for the 30-year reference period from 1981-2010.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is seen that for the vast majority of global
surface pixels the 5-month averages were mildly or much warmer than the 30-year
reference period.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In an accompanying
graphic NOAA shows land and ocean temperature departures from the 30 year reference period
for the January-May interval annually from 1880 to the present (<a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201905">not shown</a>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Starting about 1976 the departures are all
only positive, trending up to 0.8-1.1</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">C
(1.4-2.1</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">F) above the
average between 2015 and 2019.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The full
139-year record shows clearly that, although there are year-to-year variations,
the long-term trend in the 5-month global average temperature has been
gradually increasing by about 1.3</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">C
(2.3</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">F) starting at
about 1910.</span></div>
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</span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Global
warming has been determined to have caused two current climate extremes.</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>First, a severe heat wave blanketed much of
western Europe during the end of June 2019.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It broke heat records across much of the area.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A group of experts in the field of climate
attribution examined the temperature data in two ways, as described in a
commentary in the journal <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02071-z?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190711&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190711&sap-outbound-id=80EA33B6556D749D2BC95CB1F0851F9C149F05EA&utm_source=hybris-campaign&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=000_SKN6563_0000012938_41586-Nature-20190711-EAlert&utm_content=EN_internal_28905_20190711&mkt-key=005056B0331B1ED888DF526EE5C22187">Nature</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Attribution
science has made great strides in recent years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In this case, the scientists examined the heat wave in two ways.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>First, they compared the actual temperature
record with results from climate models for the European region, running cases
that included or excluded a man-made greenhouse effect.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They found that the record heat was five
times more likely with extra greenhouse gases than without.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Second, they assessed whether historical
records going back 100 years are consistent with the actual heat wave data when
climate models are used to “hindcast” the data.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They found that global warming and air pollution made the current heat
wave 100 times more likely than without those factors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">More
generally, the commentary summarizes that about two-thirds of the 200
attribution inquiries reported to date have positively identified global
warming as making the particular event being studied more likely or more severe
than without warming.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Second,
a report from India describes “Zero Day, the day when a city’s taps dry out and
people have to stand in line to collect a daily quota of water.” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is <a href="https://www.natureasia.com/en/nindia/article/10.1038/nindia.2019.84?WT.ec_id=NINDIA-20190710&sap-outbound-id=124373C6B945724353776A88CBC27CF245889A7F&mkt-key=005056B0331B1ED888DF526EE5C22187">currently happening</a> in many Indian
states
because aquifers are being over-drawn and this year’s monsoon rains were 30% less
abundant than usual.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The image below
exemplifies the disaster: </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SXVIOWNFXxM/XSi57HGY7wI/AAAAAAAADDE/_T4y1PqPGSo5yyoVZ-iZWTgnZV-OBHXYQCEwYBhgL/s1600/2019%2BIndia%2BZeroWater.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="355" data-original-width="620" height="228" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SXVIOWNFXxM/XSi57HGY7wI/AAAAAAAADDE/_T4y1PqPGSo5yyoVZ-iZWTgnZV-OBHXYQCEwYBhgL/s400/2019%2BIndia%2BZeroWater.png" width="400" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Women
in Rajasthan, India walk long distances to collect drinking water.<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Source:
Nature India, <a href="https://www.natureasia.com/en/nindia/article/10.1038/nindia.2019.84?WT.ec_id=NINDIA-20190710&sap-outbound-id=124373C6B945724353776A88CBC27CF245889A7F&mkt-key=005056B0331B1ED888DF526EE5C22187"><span style="color: #0563c1;">https://www.natureasia.com/en/nindia/article/10.1038/nindia.2019.84?WT.ec_id=NINDIA-20190710&sap-outbound-id=124373C6B945724353776A88CBC27CF245889A7F&mkt-key=005056B0331B1ED888DF526EE5C22187</span></a>.<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><br /></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Zero
Day has already occurred in the city of Chennai, and is predicted to happen
next year in many cities, including the capital, Delhi.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In all 600 million people may be impacted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Groundwater is the source for most of India’s
rural inhabitants and for its agriculture.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation states that global warming
is one factor contributing to this crisis.</span></span></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Analysis</span></u></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
Paris Agreement of December 2015 pledged 193 members of the United Nations
voluntarily to reduce greenhouse gas emission rates sufficiently to keep the
planet below a 2</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">C rise above
pre-industrial levels by 2100.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the
Agreement is failing; the rate of emissions is still increasing, raising the
total accumulated greenhouse gas burden of the atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a result, the IPCC issued a new, more
drastic <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">report</a> in October 2018 </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "segoe ui" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">
</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">specifying
that we have to keep that temperature increase below 1.5</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">C, and to reach a worldwide reduction of
emission rates to <i>zero </i>by about 2040, or 21 years from now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></div>
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</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Failing
to achieve this goal will lead to more intense warming, and will contribute to
more rapid sea level rise, impacting coastal cities around the world, as discussed
above.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It will also contribute to the more
intense extremes of heat, such as Europe has experienced, as well as more
extreme heat and aridity such as India is experiencing.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
economic harm alone is problematic, since in general our political structures
don’t budget for funds to revive the losses, and insurance may be inadequate or
nonexistent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All people of the world
have to mobilize individually and politically to eliminate fossil
fuel use and develop a renewable energy economy to achieve the goal of zero
emissions.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">© 2019 Henry Auer</span></span></div>
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<br />Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-74762829174776498672019-04-30T13:23:00.001-04:002019-04-30T13:23:56.647-04:00Our Children: The Climate Activists We Need!<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">On Strike for the Climate.</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Greta Thunberg, then aged 15, decided not to go back to school after a summer of record temperatures in Sweden in 2018.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead she <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/greta-thunberg-fridays-for-future-climate-change-800675/">picketed solo outside the Swedish parliament</a>, with her books and a sign reading “School Strike for Climate”. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She felt powerless as Swedish politicians failed to address climate change in a meaningful way, even as they campaigned for reelection in Sweden. In short order, now 16 years old, she has engendered a global movement of school students protesting inaction on the climate around the world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She started the #FridaysForFuture climate protests, for example involving over 30,000 pupils in Belgium alone in January 2019.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the annual United Nations climate talks in Poland in December 2018, she berated the delegates, saying “You are not mature enough to tell it like it is.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even that burden you leave to us children.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Elsewhere she has said, perhaps with wisdom exceeding her years, “Change is on the horizon, but to see that change we also have to change ourselves.”</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br />
</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">A globe-wide <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/03/kids-climate-march-strikes-around-the-world-fridaysforfuture/">international strike of students</a> marching against climate inaction took place in March 2019, a sequel to Greta Thunberg’s activism.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1,700 strike events occurred on every continent (except Antarctica).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the U. S. alone there were 100 strikes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nadia Nazar, an organizer of a strike in Washington, D.C., said “<span style="color: black;">We’re the first generation that’s being significantly affected by climate change, and the last generation that can do something about it.”<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: black;"><br />
</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Many of these children, born just after the 21<sup>st</sup> century began, realize they will be living through most of its remainder.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They see and read about the harms already being inflicted upon humanity by weather and climate extremes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They also recognize that global warming poses an existential threat to our planet as this century unfolds, and understand that, barring energetic, ambitious action starting now, their lives risk becoming unsustainable as the earth continues warming. (Please see the post “</span><span lang="EN" style="color: #04355d; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/how-do-we-answer-our-children.html"><span style="color: #0563c1;">How Do We Answer Our Children?</span><span style="color: windowtext;">”)</span></a></span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Climate scientists agree that our children’s climate worries are justified.</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Twenty-two prominent climate scientists from 10 countries published a <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/364/6436/139.2/tab-article-info">letter to the editor of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Science</i></a> (12 April 2019</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">) in support of the youthful climate strikers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The writers affirm: “Their concerns are justified and supported by the best available science. The current measures for protecting the climate and biosphere are deeply inadequate.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Confirming our children’s calls to action they state “It is critical to immediately begin a rapid reduction in CO<sub>2</sub> and other greenhouse gas emissions…. The young protesters rightfully demand that … solutions [already known to us] be used to achieve a sustainable society…. Without bold and focused action, their future is in critical danger.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The letter forcefully concludes “The enormous grassroots mobilization…of the youth climate movement…shows that young people understand the situation. We approve and support their demand for rapid and forceful action….Only if humanity acts quickly and resolutely can we limit global warming [and its consequent ecological damage, and assure the] well-being of present and future generations. This is what the young people want to achieve. They deserve our respect and full support.” </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Climate Science.</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> The science behind our understanding of global warming and its consequences has been understood already for many decades.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indeed, the first findings that burning fossil fuels by humankind produces carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) that warms the atmosphere were uncovered during the nineteenth century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These are summarized in the Details section at the end of this post.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><u><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%;">IPCC Assessment Reports.</span></u><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%;"> The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been issuing Assessment Reports presenting scientific data and discussing warming mitigation and adaptation methodologies since 1990, at intervals of 5-7 years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The most recent one, the fifth, appeared in three parts over 2013-4.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%;">The basic conclusions throughout this series have not wavered significantly from those presented in the first Report; the difference over this 24-year period has been rather that a) the number of climate scientists at work, and our understanding of climate science based on their results, have grown dramatically; and b) technologies that permit more extensive and more accurate gathering and analysis of climate data have likewise grown significantly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This has permitted the conclusions and recommendations made in the Fifth Assessment Report to be offered with the highest levels of certainty and confidence, compared to those in the previous versions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%;">Even so, over this interval our policymakers have not embraced these recommendations as energetically and as early as would have been needed to respond to the climate crisis. Instead, </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%;">policymakers have reacted inadequately to the growing threat of damages and harms to health and society that global warming poses. </span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In Ms. Thunberg’s words, our political leaders have not been “</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%;">mature enough to tell it like it is.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even that burden [they are leaving to their] children.”</span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Most recently, an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage">IPCC Report</a> on Global Warming of 1.5</span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">°</span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">C</span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">, which appeared in October 2018, </span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">summons the world to take more immediate, extensive, and radical actions than in earlier reports so that the rise in global average temperature remains below about 1.5</span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">°</span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">C (2.7</span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">°F</span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because of earlier inaction this Report now foresees the need to reduce net global annual greenhouse gas emission rates to near zero by 2050.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This will require committed technological development and deployment at the enormous scale needed to match the rate of </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">production of CO<sub>2</sub></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> and other greenhouse gases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It also depends on the worldwide exercise of political will that reflects scientific necessity and moral responsibility. </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">There is no longer any scientific doubt that global warming leads to extremes of weather and climate that contribute to, or cause, climate disasters at an ever-increasing and ever more devastating pace. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Again as Ms. Thunberg states, “</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">to see that change we also have to change ourselves.”<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Details</span></u></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The early scientific history leading to identification of CO<sub>2 </sub>as a greenhouse gas and the understanding that it could harm our environment includes the following discoveries and reports:<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><u>1790s: Horace-Benedict de Saussure</u>, a Swiss
geologist and alpinist, constructed a glass-covered box with a thermometer
inside: his “heliothermometer”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Without understanding
why, he discovered that the temperature inside the box was much higher than the
air outside. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(We now know that glass is
greenhouse-active.)</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><u>1820s: Joseph Fourier</u>, a French physicist with an
interest in global heat exchange, understood that the atmosphere acts as what
we now call a greenhouse, retaining heat from the sun that keeps the earth warm.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But he had no way to verify his theory.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><u>1859: John Tyndall</u>, a British experimental physicist
was the first to demonstrate in his laboratory that CO<sub>2</sub> (and many
other gases) absorb heat radiation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
established that CO<sub>2 </sub>in the atmosphere behaves as a greenhouse gas, retaining
solar energy as extra heat.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><u>1896: Svante Arrhenius</u>, a Swedish chemist, built on
the knowledge of his predecessors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He
knew that burning fossil fuels generates CO<sub>2. </sub><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He calculated (using pencil and paper, before
the advent of calculators and computers) the extra warming that could arise
from this added CO<sub>2</sub>, and warned of the effects that continued fossil
fuel use could have.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><u>1958: Charles Keeling</u>, an American geologist, was
the first to measure directly the CO<sub>2</sub> content of the atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was higher than before fossil fuel use
began, and continues to grow to record levels to this day.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-558801716933477552019-04-12T22:22:00.000-04:002019-04-12T22:22:35.919-04:00Removing Carbon Dioxide from the Atmosphere<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In October 2018 the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">Special Report</a> </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI";">updating the occurrence of weather and climate extremes since 2014.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">compared the effects of an increase in
the long-term global average temperature of 2</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°C
(3.6°F) with that of a 1.5°C (2.7°F) increase, referenced to the pre-industrial
climate,</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">
on humanity and the natural world</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Its conclusions emphasized the necessity of
limiting warming to the more stringent goal of 1.5°C to avoid severe harms to
our planet by later in this century.</span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">In its models the Report used four climate
scenarios.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All the scenarios admit that
global emission rates, to greater or lesser extents, will not be reduced
adequately, or fast enough, to limit the temperature increase without deployment
of technologies to remove carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>), a principal
greenhouse gas, from the atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>CO<sub>2</sub>
results from humanity’s burning of fossil fuels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>CO<sub>2 </sub>removal, also called “negative
emissions”, would compensate for any failure to reduce direct emission rates of
greenhouse gases from their original sources.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>An example of one of the scenarios is shown here:</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hanZlIX10AY/XLFCC9ppqgI/AAAAAAAAC7Q/lWHFCwiy93Q8BQ_cw8rzmeFu3zycIEKlQCLcBGAs/s1600/IPCC%2BSPM%2BCDR%2Bscenario.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="654" data-original-width="459" height="400" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hanZlIX10AY/XLFCC9ppqgI/AAAAAAAAC7Q/lWHFCwiy93Q8BQ_cw8rzmeFu3zycIEKlQCLcBGAs/s400/IPCC%2BSPM%2BCDR%2Bscenario.PNG" width="280" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Net emission rates per year throughout the
remainder of the 21<sup>st</sup> century (<span style="color: #1f4e79; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #1F4E79; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: accent5; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 128;">Blue</span> line),
representing the result of the following contributions. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="color: #7f7f7f; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #7F7F7F; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-themecolor: background1; mso-themeshade: 128;">Grey shading </span>,
annual CO<sub>2 </sub>emission rates from burning fossil fuels; <span style="color: #bf9000; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #BF9000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: accent4; mso-themecolor: accent4; mso-themeshade: 191;">Brown shading</span>
, annual CO<sub>2</sub> emission rates or reductions from agriculture and forestry;
</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="color: #ffd966; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #FFD966; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: "lumm=60000 lumo=40000"; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: accent4; mso-themecolor: accent4; mso-themetint: 153;">Gold shading </span>, annual </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">CO<sub>2</sub> reduction rates from bioenergy with carbon capture and
storage.</span></span></span></span><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Source: IPCC Special Report, Summary for Policymakers </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI";"><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15_SPM_High_Res.pdf"><span style="color: #0563c1;">https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15_SPM_High_Res.pdf</span></a></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></span><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Large
scale </span></u><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">CO<sub>2 </sub>removal</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"> is considered in an article by Lu and coworkers, entitled “Gasification
of coal and biomass as a net carbon-negative power source for environment-friendly
electricity generation in China”, released April 9, 2019 in <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2019/04/02/1812239116.full.pdf">Proceedings of theNational Academy of Sciences</a>.<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
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</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">As an aside, the importance of <u>scrutiny of
scientific reports by anonymous peer reviewers</u> is brought out in this
article, for the authors thank “…the reviewers for valuable and constructive suggestions.
We are particularly grateful to one of the reviewers for her/his painstaking
efforts to critique several versions of the manuscript and for questions raised
that contributed to an important improvement in the final presentation.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Peer review remains the gold standard for
assessing the worthiness of scientific reports.<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"> </span></span></div>
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</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">The authors recognize the wide availability of plant
waste in China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">C</b>ombination with the widespread use of coal already in place in the
country, the authors model using various mixtures of agricultural <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">B</b>iomass with coal in an efficient technology
for generating <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">E</b>lectricity, coupled
with use of process heat to drive <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">C</b>O<sub>2</sub>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">C</b>apture and <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">S</b>torage (CBECCS).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The model
extends over the long-term lifetime of such equipment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"> </span></span></span></div>
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</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">The authors find:<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<ul style="direction: ltr; list-style-type: disc;">
<li style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><div style="color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0in; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Crop waste proportions greater than 35% mixed
with coal would yield net-zero emission of <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">C</b>O<sub>2</sub>
evaluated over the service lifetime, moving toward significant levels of negative
emissions as the crop waste proportion increases;</span></span></div>
</li>
<li style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0in; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">The cost of generating electricity over the
lifetime, including the equipment costs, is US$ 0.092/kwh (kilowatt-hour);</span></span></div>
</li>
<li style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0in; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">As China moves toward a national policy of
imposing a price on carbon in the near future, a cost of US$52/ton would render
CBECCS competitive with China’s current pulverized coal power plants; and</span></span></div>
</li>
<li style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0in; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Conventional pollutants widely acknowledged to
arise from coal-fired electricity generation and vehicle exhaust (oxides of
sulfur, oxides of nitrogen, black soot and PM<sub>2.5</sub> aerosols (2.5-micrometer
or smaller particles detrimental to human health)) are significantly reduced by
CBECCS. Severe urban smog in China has been a major driver to curb use of
fossil fuels because they produce high levels of these pollutants.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>CBECCS would contribute significantly to
improving public health in the country. </span></span></div>
</li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">CBECCS
is especially feasible in China at the scale needed because the country is
endowed with a very large geological storage capacity for the </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">CO<sub>2</sub></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">
produced in the carbon capture and storage portion of the technology.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The model projects that only 0.036% of known
geological formations suitable for storage would be needed each year; this
capacity is widely distributed geographically across China.</span></span></span></div>
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</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
article lists barriers to implementing CBECCS technology at scale, including<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<ul style="direction: ltr; list-style-type: disc;">
<li style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><div style="color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Deploying
and integrating the many component advanced technologies to ensure smooth
operation, and to extend it on a scale needed to make a significant contribution
to reducing net emission rates;</span></span></div>
</li>
<li style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Implementing
infrastructure to enable delivery of waste biomass to the CBECCS facilities at
the scale and regularity needed; and</span></span></div>
</li>
<li style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Infrastructure
and operating costs evaluated for CBECCS are more than double those for current
coal generation. These costs can become competitive as China’s carbon pricing
regime becomes operational as planned in 2020.</span></span></div>
</li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">CO<sub>2</sub> Removal from the atmosphere
(ambient air) in a pilot project in Canada</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">The New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/07/business/energy-environment/climate-change-carbon-engineering.html">published a report</a> </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">on April 8, 2019 describing new technology for <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">C</b>O<sub>2</sub></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> removal from ambient air and preparing it for
geological storage underground.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
company doing this work, Carbon Engineering, has attracted funding from oil
companies Chevron and Occidental Petroleum, and the large Australian mining
company BHP, as well as others.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Recently
the company raised US$68 million.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The oil
companies, sensitive to enterprise risk as renewable energy threatens to
displace gasoline for transportation, are interested in carbon removal
technologies such as being developed by Carbon Engineering as a way potentially
to offset </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">CO<sub>2</sub></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> emissions due to use of their
products.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fiona Wild, BHP’s vice
president for sustainability and climate change states “This is about
recognizing that climate change poses significant risk to all economic
sectors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Climate change is … a business
risk that requires a business response.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Similarly, Dieter Helm, professor of energy policy at Oxford University,
says “If money is being spent on research and development to develop ways to
sequester carbon, that is a good thing.”</span></span></div>
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</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">A
schematic flow diagram of Carbon Engineering’s technology is shown here:</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RIh3LecIITw/XLFCDMT8kII/AAAAAAAAC7g/JMe_ZWA_94c4-CeC7kumpd302hg51QLzgCEwYBhgL/s1600/NYT%2BCarbonEngg%2BC-removal-techn.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="652" data-original-width="927" height="450" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RIh3LecIITw/XLFCDMT8kII/AAAAAAAAC7g/JMe_ZWA_94c4-CeC7kumpd302hg51QLzgCEwYBhgL/s640/NYT%2BCarbonEngg%2BC-removal-techn.PNG" width="640" /></a></span></div>
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</span></span><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Flow
diagram for capturing the dilute </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">C</span></b><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">O<sub>2</sub></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> gas present in ambient air (1, left),
and preparing it as pure </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">CO<sub>2 </sub></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(upper arrow at stage 3, Calciner)
for storage underground or for use in chemical processes to synthesize fuels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The fan units include an alkaline solution that serves to absorb most of the
ambient </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">C</span></b><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">O<sub>2</sub></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As shown at the right, the alkaline substance
needed to absorb the </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">CO<sub>2</sub></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> is regenerated and ultimately fed back
to absorb more </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">CO<sub>2</sub></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> in the fan units.</span></span></span></div>
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<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Source:
New York Times, </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI";"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/07/business/energy-environment/climate-change-carbon-engineering.html"><span style="color: #0563c1;">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/07/business/energy-environment/climate-change-carbon-engineering.html</span></a>.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI";">So far, according to the report,
the pilot plant has produced the calcium carbonate pellets in stage 2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Calcium carbonate is the mineral
limestone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If heated to a high temperature
in the calciner the limestone would release pure gaseous </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">CO<sub>2</sub></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">
for collection. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span><br />
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<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Discussion</span></u></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">An
alarming impression of fossil fuel consumption by humanity since the beginning
of the industrial revolution is shown here:</span></div>
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-AsSLUS9ilJ4/XLFCDK9dQBI/AAAAAAAAC7c/OtjAFDI4absUISi-iynaHE3QGLXCS3sZQCEwYBhgL/s1600/World%2BFF%2BUse.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="734" data-original-width="1058" height="443" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-AsSLUS9ilJ4/XLFCDK9dQBI/AAAAAAAAC7c/OtjAFDI4absUISi-iynaHE3QGLXCS3sZQCEwYBhgL/s640/World%2BFF%2BUse.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Global <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">annual</i> use of the three fossil fuels (<span style="color: #afabab; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #AFABAB; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">gray</span>, coal; <span style="color: #ed7d31; mso-themecolor: accent2;">orange</span>, crude oil; <span style="color: #009999;">teal</span>, natural gas) shown from 1800 (before the
industrial revolution) to 2017, in energy units of terawatt-hours.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For 2017 the energy from each fuel translates
to approximately 5.4 billion metric tons/yr of coal; 30 billion barrels/yr of
oil; and 122 billion cubic feet/yr of natural gas (using conversions provided
at <a href="https://www.unitjuggler.com/convert-energy-from-kgSKE-to-Wh.html"><span style="color: #0563c1;">https://www.unitjuggler.com/convert-energy-from-kgSKE-to-Wh.html</span></a>).
Source: <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels"><span style="color: #0563c1;">https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels</span></a>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">These
fuels, when burned, yield man-made </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">CO<sub>2</sub>
in comparably large amounts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since
planetary warming is determined by the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">total</i>
amount of CO<sub>2</sub> that we have added to our atmosphere, one need only
look back to this graphic and in her mind’s eye estimate the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">total area under the curve shown</i>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">This result should impress the reader about the
daunting task facing implementation of negative emission technology.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even achieving fractional depletion of added CO<sub>2</sub>,
as suggested in the first graphic above, is a huge challenge. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A mitigating factor is that humanity has
perhaps 1-2 decades to begin carbon removal at scale; in the first graphic above
significant negative emissions (</span><span style="color: #ffd966; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #FFD966; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: "lumm=60000 lumo=40000"; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: accent4; mso-themecolor: accent4; mso-themetint: 153;">Gold shading</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">) aren’t apparent until about 2040.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Carbon
capture and storage technology at a less sophisticated level than presented
here by Yu and coworkers has been known for more than a decade.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even so, there are <a href="https://www.cslforum.org/cslf/">only a handful of such projects</a>,
operating as pilots, around the world.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Occidental
Petroleum, and other petroleum extracting companies, already use </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">CO<sub>2</sub></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">,
injecting it into operating oil wells to pressurize the crude oil and enable
extracting more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thus </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">CO<sub>2</sub></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">
is being injected underground to produce more oil, which when refined and
burned produces fresh </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">CO<sub>2</sub></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/07/business/energy-environment/climate-change-carbon-engineering.html">Occidental believes</a> </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">this
cycle could help make its operations carbon-neutral.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Carbon Engineering, and Chevron, in contrast,
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/07/business/energy-environment/climate-change-carbon-engineering.html">envision using</a></span> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/07/business/energy-environment/climate-change-carbon-engineering.html">CO2 to synthesize fuels</a><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">, a process that requires the input of at least as much energy as was
released when a fossil fuel was burned and yielded CO<sub>2</sub>. Carbon
Engineering plans to use renewable energy to generate hydrogen gas needed for
making the synthetic fuel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thus a
competition is implied, wherein a choice must be made between using renewable
energy to serve the public directly versus using it in industrial processes to
regenerate a carbon-containing fuel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">As with the CBECCS process described by Lu and
coworkers, the hurdle to achieve operation of the direct CO<sub>2</sub> removal
at scale, as envisioned by Carbon Engineering, is high.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A single Carbon Engineering plant could
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/07/business/energy-environment/climate-change-carbon-engineering.html">remove </a></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/07/business/energy-environment/climate-change-carbon-engineering.html">1 million tons of CO<sub>2</sub> per year</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a tiny fraction, about 0.003%, of the
CO<sub>2</sub> produced by humanity around the world per year.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Both
technologies described here are believed by the protagonists to become price
competitive as the scale of operations increases and as use of fossil fuels
falls due to market pressure if and when a meaningful price on carbon fuels is
implemented.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the meantime governmental
resources and the private sector will drive the development of these technologies.</span></div>
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© 20</span>19 Henry Auer<br />
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Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-70028523183254241212019-03-16T20:34:00.000-04:002019-03-17T17:21:50.107-04:00How Do We Answer Our Children?<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">On
Friday March 15, 2019 children all over the world walked away from school and
joined organized marches to raise their voices in favor of combatting global
warming.<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">It’s
<a href="https://twitter.com/350/status/1106622358549397504">estimated</a> that around the world about one million marchers joined this protest,
according to its organizers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.desmogblog.com/2019/03/15/new-orleans-student-global-climate-strike-schools?utm_source=dsb%20newsletter">They gathered</a> in over 1,600 cities in more
than 100 countries.</span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">This
movement was started in 2018 by Greta Thunberg, a Swedish high school student,
now 16 years old.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Her tweeted message
from the March 15 protest is shown here:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSyC4ZQBhsoN4CY-YVDbaGH5xca1aVC0ZXP9o3LMrcngB_CrTWrSc2ZL60vPz_Di6xsJk_XIynsBcIMv9l4aT9MUL2rvVGQzK2ULvDCRY6vtsrGvizTYWQMy6jYylpW_XWCvPNdmKqIaA/s1600/190316+Greta+Thunberg.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="554" data-original-width="759" height="291" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSyC4ZQBhsoN4CY-YVDbaGH5xca1aVC0ZXP9o3LMrcngB_CrTWrSc2ZL60vPz_Di6xsJk_XIynsBcIMv9l4aT9MUL2rvVGQzK2ULvDCRY6vtsrGvizTYWQMy6jYylpW_XWCvPNdmKqIaA/s400/190316+Greta+Thunberg.PNG" width="400" /></a></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://www.desmogblog.com/2019/03/15/new-orleans-student-global-climate-strike-schools?utm_source=dsb%20newsletter">She told</a> the
gathered marchers in Sweden “We are facing the greatest existential crisis
humanity has ever faced. And yet it has been ignored. You who have ignored it
know who you are.”<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <span style="font-size: xx-small;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In
Africa, <a href="https://www.desmogblog.com/2019/03/15/new-orleans-student-global-climate-strike-schools?utm_source=dsb%20newsletter">Isaac Oindo</a>, from NGO Power Shift Africa, said: <span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“Some
people think climate change is only a future problem but here in Africa we know
that it is happening now. We're living through it. However we know that it is
going to affect the next generation even more severely which is why it's no
surprise to see school children here in Africa and around the world going on
strike to demand action.”</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In
Berlin, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/15/climate/climate-school-strikes.html?">Luis Anzolin</a>, age 15, declared <span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“We’re
here because it’s important, it’s about our future. Because let’s face it,
those sitting in Parliament will probably not be there in the future and it’s
going to affect us.”<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">A
<a href="http://www.pewglobal.org/2019/02/10/climate-change-still-seen-as-the-top-global-threat-but-cyberattacks-a-rising-concern/">2018 Pew Research Poll</a> conducted </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">in 26 countries found that climate
change is viewed as the main international threat in 13 of them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Young people are more worried about the
threats that climate change poses than are those over 50, in the U.S., France,
Australia and the Philippines.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">These
youths, presently in their mid- to late-teen years, realize that within their lifetimes
the world’s climate will wreak severe harm on our planet if humanity continues its
present profligate energy habits. This was already foreseen in the United
Nations’ <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/">5<sup>th</sup> Assessment Report</a> (5AR)</span><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">issued 2013-2014 by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
report models <span style="color: #2f5597; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #2F5597; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: accent1; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191;">the </span>future climate expected under four scenarios of greenhouse
gas (GHG) emission rates. It finds that for an unconstrained scenario by 2100
the long-term global average surface temperature could reach as high as about
4.6</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">C (8.3</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">F) above the average for the two-decade period
from 1861-1880, as seen in the image below.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-SyrnMqTA95s/XI2JrrrXEiI/AAAAAAAAC38/jRk4X7Z_LJAoKY8svPr5Nu-RwmbSgZ5kACEwYBhgL/s1600/5AR%2BCO2-T%2B2100model.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1009" data-original-width="1134" height="569" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-SyrnMqTA95s/XI2JrrrXEiI/AAAAAAAAC38/jRk4X7Z_LJAoKY8svPr5Nu-RwmbSgZ5kACEwYBhgL/s640/5AR%2BCO2-T%2B2100model.png" width="640" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>In this graphic the total accumulated amount of extra carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) added to the atmosphere since the industrial revolution began, arising from burning fossil fuels, is given on the upper horizontal axis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The resulting increase in long-term global average temperature, arising from modeling the four emission scenarios, is shown on the vertical axis, referenced to the 1861-1880 average.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The four scenarios range from most stringent (falling to zero emissions at about 2040) shown in <span style="color: #2f5597; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #2F5597; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: accent1; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191;">dark blue</span>, giving a temperature increase of about 1.8</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">C (3.2</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">F) by 2100; passing on through the progressively less stringent scenarios shown in <span style="color: #0070c0;">light blue</span> and <span style="color: #ffc000;">orange</span>; and ending on the scenario that continues present trends of largely unconstrained emissions (<span style="color: red;">red</span>) mentioned earlier.<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><br /><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> The black line in the lower left represent actual historical
data, with each decadal year given by a dot, some of which show the year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s seen that this historical “hindcast” reproduces
the historical data very well, giving credence that the modeling is
correct.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The four successive emissions scenarios
follow almost a straight line toward the upper right, toward higher CO<sub>2</sub>
levels and higher projected temperatures.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">It’s
already turning out that our children are right to be alarmed and frightened
about their climate future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the five
years since 5AR was issued, accumulated CO<sub>2</sub> in the atmosphere has
continued to increase year by year, as has the long-term global average
temperature.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The world has been
afflicted with ever more severe bouts of extreme weather and extreme climate,
just as the climate scientists writing 5AR foresaw.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These include, in differing regions of the
planet, drought and reduced agricultural yield, heat waves and long-term hot
temperatures also reducing agricultural yield, more extreme precipitation resulting
in fresh water floods, more severe storms, fair weather tidal flooding along
shorelines, and ocean warming resulting in displaced fisheries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The science of attribution has made great
progress in recent years; events such as listed here in many cases are deemed
to have been made more severe because of global warming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Our perceived sense of worsening weather and
climate events is real, and is due to worsening warming.</span>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Climate
scientists have been calling for policies to mitigate global warming and to
adapt to its consequences since at least the First Assessment Report almost
three decades ago.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Policymakers in many
countries, but especially in the U. S., have ignored or even sought to suppress
these findings.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">We
must answer our children now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Scant time
remains for those in power the world over to act meaningfully to mitigate
worsening warming and to implement adaptation measures to address effects that
are already underway.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Being human, our
policymakers themselves have children and grandchildren, or may have them soon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their children, like ours, call out for
meaningful action.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Doing nothing is no
longer an option, since it consigns all those in future generations to lives of
misery and hardship.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Our
children are waiting for us to act.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their future
calls for nothing less than decarbonizing our energy economy as completely as
feasible, using existing and newly invented technologies.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> <span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">© <span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">20</span></span>19</span> Henry Auer</span><br />
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<br />Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-69832426059713895132019-01-24T17:19:00.000-05:002019-01-24T17:19:28.258-05:00Former Vice President Biden Says Climate Change Is An “Existential” Threat<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Former
U. S. Vice President <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?457196-1/vice-president-biden-addresses-us-conference-mayors">Joe Biden spoke</a>
before the United States Conference of Mayors on January 24, 2019.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Following the <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?457196-1/vice-president-biden-addresses-us-conference-mayors">link above</a>
takes you to the YouTube video of his address.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Fully half of his 30-minute speech was devoted to the dire need for the
U. S. to address climate change rather than retreat from the issue the way the
present Trump administration is doing.<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Vice
President Biden summarized the important climate and economic benefits
generated by the funds in the Obama administration’s Recovery Act of 2009 (intended
to stimulate the economy out of the Great Recession) that were directed to
mitigating climate change in the U. S.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>He then proceeded to offer a heartfelt, sincere and cogent statement on
why and how U. S. federal policy should continue to combat climate change by doubling
down on policies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build a renewable
energy economy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By doing so the U. S.
would rejoin all the other nations of the world in our unified campaign to
limit further global warming, to which we all subscribed in the Paris Agreement
of 2015.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
link above takes one to the video of Biden’s speech.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The portion dealing with climate change begins
at about 16 min, 19 sec (16:19) of the video, and continues to about 29 min, near
the end.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(For those unfamiliar with
YouTube, if you mouse over any part of the video screen the timeline of the
video pops up at the bottom of the screen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Then as the mouse scans along that timeline, you can stop at 16:19 [or
any other time you wish].<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you then click
on that position the video will begin playing at that point.)</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Here
are some direct quotes from Biden’s talk, with the time for each statement indicated.</span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />
<ul style="direction: ltr; list-style-type: disc;">
<li style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><div style="color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
Recovery Act included “the single biggest investment in clean energy in the
history of the country - $90 billion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
leveraged $150 billion in the private sector. [It] created hundreds of
thousands of clean energy jobs…By the end of the administration there was 30
times as much solar energy and [we were] creating clean energy jobs 12 times
faster than any other sector of the economy.” (16:19)</span></div>
</li>
<li style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“There’s
no reason that in 2025 all of North America can’t get half of electricity from non-polluting
sources.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s within our grasp but for
special interests!” (20:40)</span></div>
</li>
<li style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Addressing
the mayors directly, he said “You also know…it’s a matter of survival.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The threat posed by climate change is
existential.” (21:26)</span></div>
</li>
<li style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“You
know what the military said [to President Obama and Vice President Biden]? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>‘You know what our greatest security threat is?
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Global warming….If sea levels rise…you
have tens of millions of people migrating.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That’s how wars start.’” (21:42)</span></div>
</li>
<li style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“Our
government’s own most recent report found that heat stress and drought can kill
up to a quarter of our corn and soybean harvest.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What’s that going to mean for you mayors from
the Midwest…? What does that mean … when John Deere [a major manufacturer of
farm equipment] has nothing to plow? (23:40)</span></div>
</li>
<li style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Our
scientists have spoken…Since when did we become science deniers?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The United Nations told us…we have 12 years
to act before it’s irreversible” (24:07)</span></div>
</li>
<li style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(Referring
to the Trump administration intention to pull out of the Paris Agreement)…“you’ve
stepped up [addressing the mayors]….400 of you said, no, no, not me….57% of you
pledged to take action in 2019” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(25:50)</span></div>
</li>
<li style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“…this
is the most urgent priority facing the nation, and we’ll be judged by our
children and grandchildren for what we do today.” (27:48)<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"> </span></span></span></span></div>
</li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <u>Conclusion<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><br /></span></span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.25in;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">This writer finds it highly significant
that Vice President Biden, in his appearance before the United States
Conference of Mayors for 2019 devoted so much emphasis to the single issue of
climate change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With all the problems
facing our mayors, such as economic and social injustice, and opioid abuse, to
name only a few, he chose to stress the importance of the climate change issue
as an “existential” threat, stating “this is the most urgent priority facing the
nation”.</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.25in;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.25in;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Skeptics may downplay this speech as being
merely a political gesture from someone grappling with the decision of whether
to run for president in two years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet there
are many other ways he could have addressed our country’s mayors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here’s a man who was at the center of
national power for eight years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He came
to understand the singular, generational, global significance of man-made
emissions of greenhouse gases that have led to intolerable levels of global
warming in the short time, geologically speaking, of a figurative blink of an
eye.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mr. Biden is to be praised for this
effort.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We all should support his call
to action on climate change, regardless of whether he runs for president.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">© 2019 Henry Auer</span>Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-59819535225819281132018-12-07T17:57:00.000-05:002018-12-16T11:54:46.891-05:00Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Continue Increasing<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Carbon
dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions from sources all around the globe are estimated
to be increasing at a renewed, distressingly rapid, rate </span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">for 2018 to date,
2.7% for the year, after having been determined to be lower, about 1.6% for the
full year of 2017. This evaluation is part of a detailed accounting of all
sources of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and of planetary processes that remove CO<sub>2</sub>
from the atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The study is
undertaken now an annual basis and reported in the “Global Carbon Budget 2018”
(<a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018">C. Le Quere and 70 coauthors</a>, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141-2194, 2018<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The main sources of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions are
use of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and the manufacture of cement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The two largest factors that remove CO<sub>2</sub>
are absorption into the waters of the ocean, and plant and soil incorporation
of CO<sub>2</sub>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The net balance
between all emitting and absorbing factors leads to the increase in man-made atmospheric
CO<sub>2</sub> that is the main concern when considering global warming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The authors present the increasing trend of
atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> in the following graphic: <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_lv5yZ9wP0g/XArvt6kpH1I/AAAAAAAACzk/SD3dCGg3TfQzoQGK--cfYWPSqxbZCudSgCEwYBhgL/s1600/Atm%2BCO2%2Bfrom%2B1958.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1138" data-original-width="1600" height="282" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_lv5yZ9wP0g/XArvt6kpH1I/AAAAAAAACzk/SD3dCGg3TfQzoQGK--cfYWPSqxbZCudSgCEwYBhgL/s400/Atm%2BCO2%2Bfrom%2B1958.png" width="400" /></a></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Direct measurement of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 1958 to 2018. This graphic represents the difference between man-made sources of CO2 in the atmosphere and its removal by natural earth processes. The authors’ analysis shows that humanity’s use of fossil fuels is a main contributor to increased CO2, and is a main contributor to global warming.<br /> Source: C. Le Quere and coauthors, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141-2194 (2018)</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
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<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Why
is CO<sub>2</sub> emission such a problem?</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This gas persists in the atmosphere for centuries, if not longer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So the coal that was burned when the
industrial revolution began produced CO<sub>2</sub> that is still part of the
atmosphere today, and the aggregate amount of fossil fuels we consume at
present produces CO<sub>2</sub> that will last for centuries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The excess accumulation of CO<sub>2</sub> shown
above cannot be removed economically on the massive scale needed with currently
existing technology: the annual growth of atmospheric in 2017 was 4.6±0.2</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">billion metric
tons measured as carbon/yr (or 16.8 billion metric tons measured as CO<sub>2</sub>/yr).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
increased heat-trapping ability of the additional atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> has
alarmed scientists in the past couple of months.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have issued two dramatic calls to action
by the nations of the world (<a href="https://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2018/10/ipcc-report-on-global-warming-warns-of.html">here</a> <span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">and
<a href="https://www.globalchange.gov/nca4">here</a>)
urging humanity to limit the overall rise in the long-term global average
temperature to less than 1.5</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">°C</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> (</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.7</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">°F) by 2040
or 2050. </span></span> <span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Voluntary national commitments were made by the
members of the United Nations to reduce annual emission rates when the Paris
Agreement was reached in 2015.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even at
that time, analysis of the commitments recognized that they were seriously
insufficient to accomplish the limitation needed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And in the succeeding three years, even those
commitments have not been met.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is made
worse by President Trump’s intention for the U. S. to leave the Paris
Agreement; the U. S. remains one of the three top annual emitters of </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">CO<sub>2</sub>
in the world and its emissions would increase under the president’s policy.</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></u></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></u></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Global
warming depends on the total accumulated greenhouse gases (GHGs), not the
annual emissions rate</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The heat-trapping effect of GHGs depends on
their total accumulated amount in the atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A goal of simply reducing the annual emission
rate does not replace the need to stabilize the total accumulated amount as
soon as possible at as low a level as possible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>As long as the emission rate is above zero, GHGs continue accumulating
in the atmosphere, thereby raising the long-term global average temperature.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only achieving zero GHG emission rates as
fast as possible stabilizes the total GHG burden at the low level needed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">This
is shown in the model image below.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
assumes that we start at a value of 100 for the atmospheric GHG level.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From year 0 to year 10 the annual emission
rate, <span style="color: #0070c0;">shown in blue</span>, is 4% of the amount of
the previous year (in the image the rate is multiplied by 25 to scale it to
100).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Over this period the cumulative
GHG amount, <span style="color: #ed7d31; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">shown in orange</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">, rises by the 4%
amount based on the previous year’s level, resulting in a line curving upward:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span><br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2JrsRwJt9g8/XArvtmWHJGI/AAAAAAAACzo/BcrBnK5wRsct7wDYrXHZxxYjMTkA1FcygCEwYBhgL/s1600/Model%2BGHG%2BEmissions.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1066" height="461" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2JrsRwJt9g8/XArvtmWHJGI/AAAAAAAACzo/BcrBnK5wRsct7wDYrXHZxxYjMTkA1FcygCEwYBhgL/s640/Model%2BGHG%2BEmissions.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Magically,
after year 10 all net atmospheric emission rates fall to zero (<span style="color: #0070c0;">blue)</span> – including those originating from
electricity generation, transportation, heating and cooling, and cement
manufacture. No new GHGs are added to the atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a result, the total accumulated GHG burden
(<span style="color: #ed7d31; mso-themecolor: accent2;">orange</span>) flattens
out, stabilized at the year 10 level.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s
important to note that reducing the annual emission rate to zero cannot lead to
a reduction in the total atmospheric GHG level.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This idealized model illustrates the important fact that the sooner
annual emission rates approach zero, the lower the stabilized GHG level will be,
with the result that the long-term global average temperature likewise will
stabilize at a lower value.</span><br />
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<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
relationship between the accumulated GHG level and the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>global average temperature</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, issued in 2013-2014, modeled the
relationship between total accumulated CO<sub>2</sub> in the atmosphere and
modeled temperature increases (referred to the value during the early industrial
revolution (1861-1880)).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The modeling
included four “scenarios”, ranging from the most stringent (zero annual emission
rate after 2030-2040; shown in <span style="color: #2f5597; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #2F5597; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: accent1; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191;">navy blue</span> in the image below), to a “business as usual”
scenario (no meaningful policy to reduce emission rates; shown in <span style="color: red;">red</span> below).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_tlAgjdDeXO2NOat4mgyks32VEW7eovY2R_3WH-NXaE_LhNq7xySJQRqsRIWR7F1bZsnDm1YkztFjDxtBHhWt4GilB3_GbxLBd5GeJMVZ66PnjXCJ3C4VYjHsY3lxXI32U8lxuO-ihpU/s1600/5AR+Model+T-CO2+to+2100.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="860" data-original-width="1009" height="544" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_tlAgjdDeXO2NOat4mgyks32VEW7eovY2R_3WH-NXaE_LhNq7xySJQRqsRIWR7F1bZsnDm1YkztFjDxtBHhWt4GilB3_GbxLBd5GeJMVZ66PnjXCJ3C4VYjHsY3lxXI32U8lxuO-ihpU/s640/5AR+Model+T-CO2+to+2100.PNG" width="640" /></a></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Historical (black; 1870-2010)
and modeled (2010-2100) temperatures (</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">°C) projected for
four “scenarios” of differing trends for man-made </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations with greatest to
essentially no limitations on annual emission rates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Data point dots are given every 10 years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The most stringent (<span style="color: #2f5597; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #2F5597; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: accent1; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191;">navy blue</span>) falls to a
near zero emission rate by 2030-2040; the <span style="color: #00b0f0;">light
blue</span> and <span style="color: #ffc000;">orange</span> lines are progressively
less stringent, and the <span style="color: red;">red</span> line models the
absence of meaningful constraints on emission rates.</span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Three
important conclusions emerge from the modeling shown.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>First, the amount of CO<sub>2</sub> in the
atmosphere at any point along the horizontal axis does not depend on the
scenario, that is, it is independent of the annual emission rate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Second, all four scenarios follow more or
less the same path along the CO<sub>2</sub>-temperature relationship.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This dependence is nearly a linear one: the
higher the CO<sub>2</sub> level in the atmosphere, the higher the projected
temperature.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indeed, the most stringent
scenario (<span style="color: #2f5597; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #2F5597; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: accent1; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191;">navy blue</span>) shows no significant increase in CO<sub>2</sub> level
between 2050 and 2100 (those points are all bunched together in the image) and
consequently no further increase in projected temperature in those
decades.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This projection mirrors the results
in the model image shown further above. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Conversely,
the unconstrained scenario (<span style="color: red;">red</span>) continues to emit
CO<sub>2</sub> to 2100, leading to a drastic temperature increase of more than
4.5</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">°C</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> (</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">8.1</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">°F) by the end of the century, a truly frightening possibility.</span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"></span></span> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Third,
bringing annual emission rates to near zero does not reduce the accumulated CO<sub>2</sub>
level after reaching a plateau, nor does this lower the projected global
average temperature.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It only keeps the CO<sub>2</sub>
level and the temperature stabilized. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><u></u></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><u></u></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><u>Many
countries in the world are not fulfilling the pledges they made under the Paris
Agreement.</u><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><u> </u> </span>The New York Times </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/24/climate/coal-global-warming.html"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">reports</span></a><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">,
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>based on the most recent evaluation by
the International Energy Agency, that major emitting countries around the
world, including China and India, are continuing to build new coal-fired
electricity plants instead of migrating to renewable energy on the scale needed.
In fact, China and Japan are exporting them, building new coal plants in many
developing countries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The United States
is reneging on its emissions-reducing policies put in place under former
President Obama, and is </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/06/climate/trump-sage-grouse-oil.html"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">opening federal lands</span></a><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
to new fossil fuel extracting leases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>France
is </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/06/world/europe/france-fuel-carbon-tax.html"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">showing how difficult</span></a><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the political scene is for pursuing policies
to address global warming; rioting citizens are opposing a small, scheduled
increase in taxes on vehicle fuels.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Conclusion</span></u></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">This post demonstrates that continuing to emit
GHGs at high annual rates inexorably adds to higher CO<sub>2</sub> levels in
the atmosphere, which leads to higher long-term global average temperatures in
a straight-line fashion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Currently there
are no technologies ready to be deployed at scale to remove CO<sub>2</sub> from
emitting facilities or from the air, and permanently to store it away from the
atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only reducing annual
emission rates to near zero in the coming two decades, according to the two
reports cited at the outset, (some advocate an even shorter schedule) will keep
the world from entering a regime of unacceptably high global average
temperatures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All stakeholders need to
coalesce around this objective to achieve this goal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">© 2018 Henry Auer</span><br />
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<br />Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-52063176611950617512018-11-06T21:32:00.000-05:002018-11-06T21:32:24.071-05:00Faster Ocean Warming Means We Need Net Zero Emissions Sooner
<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
total amount of heat added to the Earth’s oceans since 1991 is about 60% higher
than mean values previously measured</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">, according to a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8">new study</a> published in
the journal Nature
on October 31, 2018.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The authors, Laure
Resplandy and a team of coworkers from the U. S., China, France and Germany,
made this evaluation using a completely alternative way of measuring how much
heat is retained by the oceans (see Details below).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
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<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">It
has been understood for many years that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/12/science/earth/ocean-warming-climate-change.html?module=inline">about 90% of the heat</a> retained by the
Earth system (ocean, melting glaciers, land and air) is absorbed by the oceans</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is graphically depicted in the
following image, which shows the excess amounts of heat from each of the four
main contributors to the total increase in heat content of the entire Earth
system since 1971.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span> </div>
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--lgkAeWYYKc/W-JIS2vJAPI/AAAAAAAACyE/R6aXGY6LmmElGzts0GUwX0tEEHTmY1jfwCEwYBhgL/s1600/Heat%2Bcontent%2B1971-2011%2Bocean--air.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="854" data-original-width="1130" height="482" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--lgkAeWYYKc/W-JIS2vJAPI/AAAAAAAACyE/R6aXGY6LmmElGzts0GUwX0tEEHTmY1jfwCEwYBhgL/s640/Heat%2Bcontent%2B1971-2011%2Bocean--air.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Accumulation
of heat in the Earth system’s components over 1970-2011, referenced to assigning
zero for 1971, in zettajoules (where “zetta” signifies 10<sup>21</sup>, i.e., 1
followed by 21 zeros, or one trillion billion joules of heat).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One joule is the amount of heat needed to
warm 1 gram of water by 0.24</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">C (0.<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">43</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">°F</span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">).</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Following the color code scheme shown at the top, it is seen that the ocean
(<span style="color: #8faadc; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #8FAADC; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: "lumm=60000 lumo=40000"; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: accent1; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themetint: 153;">light gray</span>)<span style="color: #b4c7e7; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #B4C7E7; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: "lumm=40000 lumo=60000"; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: accent1; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themetint: 102;"> </span>accounts
for more than 90% of the total incremental heat and that the air (<span style="color: #c00000;">deep red</span>), our atmosphere, accounts for only about
1-2% of the total in 2011. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Source:
New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/12/science/earth/ocean-warming-climate-change.html?module=inline"><span style="color: #0563c1;">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/12/science/earth/ocean-warming-climate-change.html?module=inline</span></a>
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Now
the authors conclude that the rate at which the Earth system has been warming,
i.e., the excess rate at which the Earth retains heat from the sun’s radiation
instead of re-radiating that heat out into space, is about <a href="https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/study-ocean-warming-detected-atmospheric-gas-measurements">60% higher than previously evaluated</a>; a recent such estimate appears in the <a href="http://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/ipcc-fifth-assessment-report-part-1.html">Fifth Assessment Report</a> of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">,
issued in 2013-2014.</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">To
help understand this result, Dr. Resplandy says “[i]magine if the ocean was
only 30 feet deep. Our data shows that it would have warmed by 6.5</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">C (11.7</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">F)
every decade since 1991. In comparison, the estimate of the last IPCC
assessment report would correspond to a warming of only 4</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">C (7.2</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">F)
every decade.</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This means that the amount of excess heat absorbed by the Earth system
because of man-made global warming increases the global average temperature
more than earlier estimated. <u>This finding is a warning that Earth’s
temperature is more sensitive to absorbed heat, so that humanity has less
leeway remaining for limiting the increase in the global average temperature</u>.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">The latter global average, the surface air
global average, is the value commonly broadcast to the public about global
warming, not the increasing oceanic heat content.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Paris Agreement of 2015 set as its goal
<a href="http://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/a-global-agreement-on-reduction-of_21.html">limiting the increase of the global average air temperature</a> to less than </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.0</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">C (3.6</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">F)
above the pre-industrial value by the end of this century</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">, with a strong recommendation to be more
ambitious by aspiring to limit warming to 1.5</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">C
(2.7</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">F).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span> </div>
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<span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><u>This
new finding reported by Resplandy and coworkers provides strong support for the
IPCC’s most recent warning to humanity</u><u>.</u><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">In
October 2018 it separately reported </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">that
our annual rates of emitting greenhouse gases (those that contribute to warming</span>
of the planet such as carbon dioxide) are <a href="https://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2018/10/ipcc-report-on-global-warming-warns-of.html">increasing even more rapidly than thought as recently as 2015</a> when the Paris Agreement was reached.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><u>The IPCC now declares that it is very
urgent </u></span><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">that, to avoid worse consequences, the countries
of the world have to work toward limiting the total global temperature increase
to </span></u><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.5</span></u><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span></u><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">C
by 2050</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">,
which is lower and sooner than the 2.0</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">C limit originally
set as the goal for 2100 in the Paris Agreement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This has to be accomplished by worldwide
reduction of annual emission rates toward zero by that date.<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
reason for this urgency is that the global average temperature depends, in
almost a straight-line fashion, on the total accumulated atmospheric burden of
greenhouse gases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It does not depend on
annual emission rates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To keep the total
greenhouse gas level as low as possible – thus limiting temperature rise – annual
emission rates have to fall toward zero as soon as possible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p><span style="text-decoration: none;"></span></o:p><span style="text-decoration: none;"></span></span></u> </div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Conclusion</span></u></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span> </div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
authors’ results support their conclusion that “ocean warming is at the high
end of previous estimates, with implications for policy-relevant measurements
of the Earth response to climate change, such as [how rapidly the Earth
responds] to greenhouse gases and the thermal component of sea-level rise”
(recognizing that part of sea-level rise is due to expansion of the water in
the ocean as its temperature increases).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span> </div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">A
main policy consideration
would be that <a href="https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/study-ocean-warming-detected-atmospheric-gas-measurements">humanity has to drastically reduce the annual rate</a> at which we
emit greenhouse gases, by as much as 25% faster than previously recommended</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many groups are working to achieve a net
emission rate of 0% by 2050, i.e., transforming the world’s entire energy
economy to use of only renewable energy (including also other contributions
such as increasing forestation and permanently injecting carbon dioxide deep
underground). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We all have to transform
our individual actions, and subscribe to dramatically different policies, in
order to establish this radical new energy economy.<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Details</span></u></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></u> </div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
method for obtaining ocean temperature measurements since 2007 uses robotic
buoys dispersed across the oceans that directly measure the temperature; they
automatically descend to various depths in the ocean for their measurements,
then resurface to relay their data to land databases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Earlier data were gathered from fewer buoys on
the surface or at only shallow depths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Such
measurements provide results such as shown in the image above.<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span> </div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Resplandy
and coworkers instead relied on measurements of the concentrations of oxygen
and carbon dioxide gases in the air around the globe, evaluating data that had
already been collected back to 1991.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Over
78,000 data points were available for use.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>These measurements serve as a substitute, or proxy, for ocean
temperature because the amount of these gases that can dissolve in water
depends on the temperature of the water: the warmer the water, the lower the
amount of gases the water can hold and the more the gases are returned to the
air.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Measuring the gas amounts in air
provides direct information about the temperature of the Earth’s oceans.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span> </div>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">© 2018 Henry Auer</span>Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-69672203567869651222018-10-09T16:13:00.000-04:002018-10-09T16:13:31.333-04:00IPCC Report on Global Warming Warns of Need for Immediate Action<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Limiting Greenhouse Gas Emission Rates
and Global Temperature Increases.</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A new report on the state of the global
climate (see Notes) finds that the world has not made enough progress in
minimizing the increase in the long-term global average temperature (referenced
to the temperature in pre-industrial times).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Restraining the temperature increase to the necessary extent demands rapid,
widespread technological and socioeconomic changes to the world’s energy
economy, leading to elimination of greenhouse gas emissions, that are unknown
in human history.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The temperature increase depends, in almost a straight-line
fashion, on the accumulated burden of added carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) and
other greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere: the more GHGs, the higher the
global average temperature becomes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
other words, the world has made insufficient progress in recent years in reducing
the use of coal, petroleum and natural gas (fossil fuels, which produce CO<sub>2</sub>
when burned), so that the atmospheric burden of GHGs continues to increase
without meaningful restraint.<span style="font-size: x-small;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The Earth has already warmed by about 1.0</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C (1.8<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">°F) above preindustrial levels, causing many
harms around the world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even without
further GHG emissions, the man-made GHG already added will remain in the
atmosphere for thousands of years, causing continued long-term climate
effects.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <span style="font-size: x-small;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"></span><br />
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Comparing A
Stringent Emission Goal to an Earlier, More Relaxed Goal.</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To avoid
worse consequences, the countries of the world have to work toward limiting the
total increase to </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">1.5</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C (2.7</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">F) by 2050, which is lower and sooner than the 2.0</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C (3.6</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">°</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">F) originally set as the goal for 2100
in the Paris Agreement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some comparisons
of differences in projected changes between the two global average temperature
increases, given in the report, are summarized here:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span> </span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Global sea level increases by 2100 would
be 10 cm (4 in) less at 1.5</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C
than at 2.0</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C
warming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is significant because
shorelines are most vulnerable not just to increased sea levels in calm
weather, but to flooding from higher and stronger storm surges in extreme
weather. Regardless, sea levels will continue
rising beyond 2100;<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Global coral reefs would be destroyed because
of warmer water temperatures and a more acidic ocean composition, to the extent
of 70-90% at 1.5</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C,
but essentially completely lost at 2.0</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is
important because reefs are complete ecosystems that support marine life, ultimately
providing much of the seafood that humans consume; <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Climate-associated effects to human
livelihoods and health, food availability, water supplies, and economic growth
will be less at 1.5</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C
than at 2.0</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C;
and<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Extremes of climate and weather on land
that we are already experiencing around the world (such as more intense
rainfall, worse flooding, more intense heat and drought, and worse forest
wildfires) would be worse at 2.0</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C than at 1.5</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Rapid reductions in annual rates of GHG emissions
must be undertaken immediately to keep the increase in global average
temperature below 1.5</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>CO<sub>2</sub> emission rates must fall by
about 45% below 2010 rates by 2030, and reach zero by around 2050.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In contrast, less stringent reductions, about
20% by 2030, not reaching a zero rate until about 2070, would result in an
average temperature increase of 2.0</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The 1.5</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">C
trajectory requires “</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy, land,
urban and infrastructure (including transport and buildings), and industrial
systems”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It also necessitates development
of new technologies not yet industrialized to ensure success.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></span><br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The Greenhouse Effect Was Identified in
the 1800s.</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="http://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/foundations-of-climate-science.html">The scientific understandings of the greenhouse effect</a>, that CO<sub>2</sub> was a
greenhouse gas, and that CO<sub>2</sub> emissions threatened a worsening
greenhouse effect, were identified initially in the nineteenth century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Charles Keeling was the first to measure the
increase in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> directly, beginning in 1958</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: Calibri;">.
</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="color: #0563c1;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">More recently climate scientists have understood the
threats posed by increased GHG emissions and global warming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, Rafe Pomerance began warning as early
as 1979, of the impending harm from continued burning of fossil fuels, but his
urgings and those of colleagues were ignored (Nathaniel Rich, New York Times
Magazine, August 5, 2018).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">IPCC Assessment Reports.</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), created under the United
Nations (UN) Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organization, has
been issuing Assessment Reports presenting scientific data and discussing
mitigation and adaptation methodologies beginning in 1990, at intervals of 5-7
years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The most recent one, the fifth,
appeared in three parts over 2013-4.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The basic conclusions throughout this series have
not wavered from those presented in the first Report; the difference over this 24-year
period has been rather that a) the number of climate scientists at work, and our
understanding of climate science based on their results, have grown dramatically;
and b) technologies that permit more extensive and more accurate gathering of
data, as well as the power to analyze large bodies of data, has likewise grown significantly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This has permitted the conclusions and
recommendations made in the Fifth Assessment Report to be offered with the
highest levels of certainty and confidence, compared to those in the previous
versions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even so, over this interval the
world has not embraced these recommendations as energetically and as early as
would have been needed to respond to the climate crisis.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Conclusion<o:p></o:p></span></u></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The IPCC Report on Global Warming of 1.5</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C summons the world to take
extensive, radical and immediate actions to keep the rise in global average
temperature below about 1.5</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because of earlier inaction it now foresees
the need to reduce global GHG emission rates to zero by 2050. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This will require committed technological
development and deployment, and the exercise of political will that reflects
scientific necessity and moral responsibility across the globe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">This transformation must account for three factors
in future global energy demand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>First,
all power generation, transportation, and heating and cooling of the built
environment must be furnished from renewable sources.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Second, raising the living standards of less
developed nations imposes additional demands for renewable energy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And third, the anticipated increase in the
world’s population likewise is a major source of increased energy demand. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></span></span></span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span> </span></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Failure to act <span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">decisively </span>is likely to result in worsening
climatic consequences as time passes whose effects will continue indefinitely.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Notes:<o:p></o:p></span></u></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The IPCC issued this report at the direction of the
UN conference that led to the Paris Agreement on the climate in 2015.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Press Release and Headline Statements of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the Summary for Policymakers of
the full Report on Global Warming of 1.5</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/session48/pr_181008_P48_spm_en.pdf"><span style="color: #0563c1;">http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/session48/pr_181008_P48_spm_en.pdf</span></a>
and <a href="http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_headline_statements.pdf"><span style="color: #0563c1;">http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_headline_statements.pdf</span></a>
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Report in the New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage"><span style="color: #0563c1;">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Report in Science Magazine <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/10/key-climate-panel-citing-impending-crisis-urges-crash-effort-reduce-emissions"><span style="color: #0563c1;">http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/10/key-climate-panel-citing-impending-crisis-urges-crash-effort-reduce-emissions</span></a>
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Report in Science Daily <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181008075147.htm"><span style="color: #0563c1;">https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181008075147.htm</span></a></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">© 20</span>18 Henry Auer</span></span></span></div>
</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-78037418665184716642018-10-02T21:45:00.000-04:002018-10-02T21:56:27.184-04:00New Storage Technologies for Renewable Energy<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Electric storage batteries based on zinc</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">
instead of lithium are now in widespread usage around the world, even though
their existence is poorly recognized.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/26/business/energy-environment/zinc-battery-solar-power.html">report</a>
in the New York Times describes a zinc-air battery produced by the company NantEnergy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The company received development grants of US$5
million from the U.S. Department of Energy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It has already deployed its batteries in Asian and African villages, and
in cell towers in the U.S., Latin America and Southeast Asia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Its founder, Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, stated
that 110 villages have established local microgrid systems, using electricity
generated on site by solar arrays.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dr.
Soon-Shiong anticipates that use of the batteries will expand greatly in telecommunication
towers, and expects use to spread to home energy storage and electric vehicles
as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He foresees a potential market
of US$50 billion.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The zinc battery has several advantages</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">
over lithium-based batteries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Zinc has a
high abundance in the earth, and is already heavily mined and used in many applications;
its ore also includes other metals that are profitably extracted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Its annual production rate is projected
to reach a maximum between 2020 and 2030, with a high projected cumulative
production tonnage being possible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Zinc
batteries cost about US$100 per kilowatt-hour of stored electrical energy,
whereas lithium batteries cost in the range of US$300-400 per kilowatt-hour, according
to the New York Times report. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Elon Musk,
the head of Tesla, believes he can get the price down to the same level as the
zinc battery.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Lithium likewise <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-lithium-battery-future/">is abundantly found</a>
around the world, but active lithium mining is limited to a few countries,
constraining its price to high values.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Its
main demand is limited to batteries for fixed and vehicular electric storage. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">An important advantage for zinc</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">
is that its batteries contain water-based electrolyte fluids, which are not
flammable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Lithium batteries, in
contrast, operate using flammable solvent-based electrolyte solutions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is the reason that lithium batteries
have been known to ignite and burn, sometimes spontaneously.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Recently an ambitious plan was announced <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/07/24/business/energy-environment/hoover-dam-renewable-energy.html">for Hoover Dam</a>
on the Colorado River, reported in the New York Times.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The dam, 726 feet high and harboring 17 huge electricity
generators that supply power to Los Angeles and much of southern California,
holds back a large lake created from the river.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>One way of storing electricity is to pump water from a low elevation
back up to a higher one, so that the pumped water can be used to generate new
electricity on demand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the Hoover Dam
proposal, massive pipes further downriver from the outflow from the dam and
generators would capture some of the water and pump it back up to the reservoir
lake behind the dam.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The electricity to
drive the pumps would come from renewable sources, solar and wind energy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Currently the project is expected to provide
electricity from the stored water at about 20% higher than current electricity
rates, but for 40% less than provided by commercial scale solar electricity,
according to the report.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The project’s
cost is estimated at US$3 billion.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Analysis</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The United Nations-sponsored Paris climate agreement
of December 2015 set the goal of keeping Earth’s projected increase in
long-term average temperature to less than 2</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C (3.6</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">°F</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">) above pre-industrial times by the end of this
century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It also set a preferred more
ambitious goal of keeping that temperature increase to less than 1.5</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C (2.7</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">°F</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In order to contribute to achieving these global objectives,
many cities in the U.S. have established voluntary or statutory objectives of
reducing the annual emission rate of all greenhouse gases to near zero as soon
as possible; many cities seek to accomplish this by midcentury.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The movement to adopting these policies has become
more urgent since federal policy in the U.S. has actually regressed in the last
two years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The government is actually undoing
previously implemented regulations limiting emission rates in electricity
generation and passenger vehicles.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That
backtracking increases the greenhouse gas emission rate in the U.S.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">As noted, the municipal policies strive to reduce
annual emission rates to near zero.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
means that electricity must be provided essentially completely from renewable
sources, that cars and trucks be powered by electric batteries or by hydrogen
fuel cells, and that space heating and cooling in the built environment be
provided exclusively by electric-powered heat pumps.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This migration away from coal, natural gas,
diesel, fuel oil and gasoline (fossil fuels) will increase the demand for
renewable electricity by 2-3 times its present level.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">This is the reason that new technologies such as
zinc-air batteries and pumped water storage acquire such high significance
going forward.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The coming changes in our
energy economy will be challenging; indeed they are nothing short of
revolutionary.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The unequivocal needs for
these changes will provide broad new business opportunities and new jobs for
American workers.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
© 20</span>18 Henry Auer</span><br />
<br />Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-85348469574219557842018-07-30T17:54:00.000-04:002018-07-30T17:54:07.231-04:00Republicans and Democrats Really Do Agree on Climate!<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">On July 29, 2018 an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/28/opinion/sunday/republicans-climate-change.html">op-ed</a> by
the social psychologists Leaf Van Boven and David Sherman reported that
majorities of both Republicans and Democrats agreed that “climate change is
happening, threatens humans and is caused by human activity — and that reducing
carbon emissions would mitigate the problem.”</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">They summarize the <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1745691617748966">results</a> of
two national polls, in 2014 and 2016, that they administered (together with a
third colleague; here we’re omitting some details of the way the experiments
were carried out).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Important conclusions
they present include:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“…most Republicans were in basic
agreement with most Democrats and independents on this issue.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Probably the “problem is not so much
that Republicans are skeptical about climate change, but that Republicans are
skeptical of Democrats — and that Democrats are skeptical of Republicans.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In experiments with different input
information, “Republicans supported climate policies that they [were told were]
backed by Republicans and were neutral toward policies backed by Democrats.
Democrats supported policies that they [were told were] backed by Democrats
more than they supported policies backed by Republicans.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This emphasizes that members of both parties
succumbed to intensified tribalism on this issue.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“Among social psychology’s fundamental
lessons is that people are profoundly affected by what other people think. In
their desire to be upstanding members of their political tribe, people are
pulled toward embracing the stances of their peers and loath to publicly
disagree with them.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="DE" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The authors found “a consistent, if
somewhat surprising, pattern: Political disagreement was substantially smaller
when it came to Republican-backed policies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In particular, there was very little distance between Republicans and
Democrats when evaluating a Republican-proposed carbon tax.”</span><span lang="DE" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">As a result, the authors surmise there may be
bipartisan support for a plan proposed last year by six Republican economists
and statesmen, former cabinet members and high-level officials in former Republican
administrations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This writer described
this proposal in a <a href="https://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/carbon-fee-and-dividend-is-proposed-by.html">previous post</a></span><span lang="DE" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Its essence is
a revenue-neutral carbon fee imposed on all fossil fuels (coal, petroleum and
natural gas) in proportion to the amount of carbon dioxide each produces when
burned.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is revenue-neutral because
all fee proceeds are distributed back to American taxpayers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span lang="DE" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span></span> <span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span lang="DE" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: DE;"></span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span lang="DE" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: DE;"><a href="https://curbelo.house.gov/uploadedfiles/mkt_choice_act_key_elements.pdf">A similar proposal</a>
has just been introduced in Congress by Republican Representative Carlos
Curbelo.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The carbon fee is US$24/metric
ton of carbon dioxide emitted, increasing with time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The difference is that this proposal is not
revenue-neutral, but uses the proceeds for highway construction, climate
research and support to low income households.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><br />
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span lang="DE" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: DE;">The social psychology results described above are likely
not outliers in public attitudes on climate change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Yale Program on Climate Change
Communication (working with George Mason University‘s <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Center for Climate Change Communication, and
other research organizations) has been surveying American public opinion on
this subject for many years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In a report
on May 8, 2018 <a href="http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/politics-global-warming-march-2018/2/">they found</a>:<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“Most registered voters (73%) think
global warming is happening, including 95% of liberal Democrats, 88% of
moderate/conservative Democrats and 68% of liberal/moderate Republicans, but
only 40% of conservative Republicans.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">A majority of registered voters (59%)
think global warming is caused mostly by human activities, including 84% of
liberal Democrats, 70% of moderate/conservative Democrats, and 55% of
liberal/moderate Republicans…, but only 26% of conservative Republicans.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">A majority of registered voters (63%)
are worried about global warming, including 88% of liberal Democrats, 76% of
moderate/conservative Democrats, and 58% of liberal/moderate Republicans, but
only 30% of conservative Republicans.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Most registered voters support policies
that would reduce use of fossil fuels and promote investing in renewable energy
to replace the lost conventional energy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></u></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Conclusion</span></u></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Tribalistic outlooks
separating Republicans and Democrats concerning global warming and its effects may
be resolving, in favor of collective action to address the issue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is indeed critical to embark on meaningful
policies at the federal level as soon as possible, in order to minimize the
continuing rise in the global average temperature.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Popular attitudes and Congressional
approaches are coalescing to promote political action.</span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span lang="DE" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: DE;"></span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span lang="DE" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: DE;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span></span></span><br />
</div>
</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">© 2018 Henry Auer</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<br />Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-4099350382254355212018-06-21T23:08:00.000-04:002018-06-21T23:08:24.566-04:00Two Former Senators Back Carbon Fee With Full Rebate<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Trent Lott, a
former Republican senator, and John Breaux, a former Democratic senator, support
a universal national price, or fee, on fossil fuels</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (coal, natural
gas and petroleum), <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/20/opinion/climate-change-fee-carbon-dioxide.html">in an op-ed</a> published June 21, 2018 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their proposal is based on <a href="https://www.clcouncil.org/media/TheConservativeCaseforCarbonDividends.pdf">the recent plan</a> put forward by conservatives formerly holding high positions in earlier administrations
(</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The Conservative Case For Carbon
Dividends</span></i><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">; by James A.
Baker, III; Martin Feldstein; Ted Halstead; N. Gregory Mankiw; Henry M.
Paulson, Jr.; George P. Shultz; Thomas Stephenson; and Rob Walton; the “Baker-Shultz
plan”).</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span> <span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Emissions</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">. When we talk
about emissions in the context of global warming, it is important to remember
that “emissions” actually refers to “the rate of greenhouse gas emissions per
year”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><u>As long as the rate of
emissions is greater than zero, greenhouse gases continue to increase in the
earth’s atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The long-term global
average temperature is directly related to the total accumulated greenhouse gas
burden of the atmosphere</u>, not to an annual rate of emissions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Therefore we have to lower the annual
emission rate toward zero as fast as possible in order to minimize further
temperature increases. <span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"></span><br />
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In their op-ed Lott and Breaux
write:</span></span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">“</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.5pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">Climate change is one of the great challenges of our generation…. [A] new
approach is needed to address this urgent problem.<br />
<br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.5pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">Both Democrats and
Republicans can find [a] solution….<br />
<br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.5pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">Congress should
approve legislation to place a meaningful fee on carbon-dioxide emissions that
ripples through all sectors of our economy, and return the revenues it
generates to the American people in the form of cash payments. We must set it
high enough to encourage a turn to cleaner energy sources and accelerate our
transition to a low-carbon future….<br />
<br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.5pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">The plan… calls for
an initial fee of $40 on every ton of carbon-dioxide emissions…, raising it
each year until we reach the necessary emissions reductions as [we] move to
cleaner sources of energy. All revenue would then be disbursed to Americans. A
family of four would receive approximately $2,000 a year.”<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span></span></i></span></span></i></span></span></i></span></span></i></span></span><div class="css-1i0edl6" style="margin: 5pt 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.5pt;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.5pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.5pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"> </span></span></span></i></span></span></i></span></i></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.5pt;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.5pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.5pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The authors then outline the advantages of the </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: MinionPro-Bold; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Baker-Shultz plan:<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></i></span></span></i></span></i></span></span><br /></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.5pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">“… it would achieve
far greater emissions reductions than all Obama-era climate regulations
combined, which will appeal to Democrats and environmentalists. At the same
time, this market-based solution would render carbon regulations unnecessary,
which will appeal to Republicans and business interests.… 70 percent of
Americans, including the most vulnerable, would come out ahead economically.”</span></span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"> </span></i><br />
<em></em><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The writers cite survey support for taking action</span><span lang="EN" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.5pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">:</span></span></span></i><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.5pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">“A poll released [June
19, 2018] shows that 81 percent of likely voters … agree the government should
take action to limit carbon emissions. And by a 2-to-1 margin, likely voters
support taxing carbon emissions and rebating the money directly to the American
people.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Lott and Breaux
conclude: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span></i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">“</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.5pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">We must put a meaningful price on carbon in America….</span></span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"> </span></i></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"> </span></i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.5pt;">To do so, we must
set our politics aside for the greater good. America has done it before, time
after time. We believe the country will do so again.”</span></i></span></span></i></span></i></span><br />
<div class="css-1i0edl6" style="margin: 5pt 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
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<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">British Columbia’s
Carbon Fee Succeeds in Reducing Emission Rates</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While some skeptics may not agree with the Baker-Shultz
plan, the actual experiment is already under way in British Columbia (BC),
Canada.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was set in place in 2008,
beginning at a level of CA$10/ton of carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) and rising
to CA$30/ton by 2012.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The result has been positive, as
the New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/02/business/does-a-carbon-tax-work-ask-british-columbia.html">reported in March 2016</a>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The revenue from the carbon fee is being
returned to BC residents and businesses in the form of tax credits in other fiscal
categories.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As BC’s environment
minister, Mary Polak, noted, </span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“It performed
better on all fronts than I think any of us expected”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">A Duke University-University of Ottawa study cited in the article found that</span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">CO<sub>2</sub></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <span lang="EN">emissions fell by 5 to 15% with “negligible effects on
aggregate economic performance”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
carbon fee raised gasoline prices, for example, by US$0.19/gallon, providing
incentives to BC residents and businesses to drive less and undertake energy
efficiency initiatives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Polling shows
that those opposed to the fee fell from 47% initially to 32% in 2015.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Experts realize, however, that in order to
achieve meaningful goals of reducing emissions the carbon fee has to be still
higher.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indeed, as of 2018, BC is
beginning to raise its fee again after staying unchanged since 2012.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Fuel-dependent carbon </span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">pricing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In carbon pricing regimes the size of the
price is tied directly to how much CO<sub>2</sub>, the combustion product resulting
when the fuel burns, is released.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Relative CO<sub>2</sub> yields are shown in the table below.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span><br />
<o:p></o:p><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> Relative Efficiency of Fossil Fuels</span></div>
<table align="left" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: currentColor; margin: auto 6.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-insideh: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-border-insidev: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 0in; mso-table-anchor-horizontal: margin; mso-table-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-table-left: 43.8pt; mso-table-lspace: 9.0pt; mso-table-rspace: 9.0pt; mso-table-top: 17.75pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1536; width: 522px;"><tbody>
<tr style="height: 31.2pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;"><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 1pt solid currentColor; height: 31.2pt; padding: 0.05in 0.1in; width: 201.65pt;" valign="top" width="269"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4.8pt 0in 0pt; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: margin; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 9.0pt; mso-element-left: 43.85pt; mso-element-top: 17.75pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;">Fuel</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 1pt 1pt 1pt 0px; height: 31.2pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0.05in 0.1in; width: 189.85pt;" valign="top" width="253"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4.8pt 0in 0pt; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: margin; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 9.0pt; mso-element-left: 43.85pt; mso-element-top: 17.75pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;">CO<sub><span style="mso-text-raise: -5.0pt; position: relative; top: 5pt;">2</span></sub><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>released per unit of heat obtained, relative
to natural gas</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21.45pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;"><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) windowtext windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; height: 21.45pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0.05in 0.1in; width: 201.65pt;" valign="top" width="269"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4.8pt 0in 0pt; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: margin; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 9.0pt; mso-element-left: 43.85pt; mso-element-top: 17.75pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;">Natural gas<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; height: 21.45pt; padding: 0.05in 0.1in; width: 189.85pt;" valign="top" width="253"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4.8pt 0in 0pt; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: margin; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 9.0pt; mso-element-left: 43.85pt; mso-element-top: 17.75pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;">1.00<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 23.7pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;"><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) windowtext windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; height: 23.7pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0.05in 0.1in; width: 201.65pt;" valign="top" width="269"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4.8pt 0in 0pt; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: margin; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 9.0pt; mso-element-left: 43.85pt; mso-element-top: 17.75pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;">Petroleum (fuel oil,
gasoline)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; height: 23.7pt; padding: 0.05in 0.1in; width: 189.85pt;" valign="top" width="253"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4.8pt 0in 0pt; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: margin; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 9.0pt; mso-element-left: 43.85pt; mso-element-top: 17.75pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;">1.37-1.48<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 18.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) windowtext windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; height: 18.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0.05in 0.1in; width: 201.65pt;" valign="top" width="269"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4.8pt 0in 0pt; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: margin; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 9.0pt; mso-element-left: 43.85pt; mso-element-top: 17.75pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;">Coal<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></td><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; height: 18.75pt; padding: 0.05in 0.1in; width: 189.85pt;" valign="top" width="253"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4.8pt 0in 0pt; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: margin; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 9.0pt; mso-element-left: 43.85pt; mso-element-top: 17.75pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;">1.75-1.94<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
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as natural gas when burned to yield the same amount of heat.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So in an industrial setting it may be
expected that the price on coal, on a thermal basis, would be almost twice as
high as that on natural gas. For example the BC pricing regime uses information such as this to set fees.</span></span></span></span><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">© 2018 Henry Auer</span><br />
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Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-27209820394138270822018-03-23T16:16:00.000-04:002018-03-24T10:55:57.142-04:00This Report Card for Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Is Not Encouraging<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 4pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Background</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued its
assessment, “<a href="http://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/march/global-energy-demand-grew-by-21-in-2017-and-carbon-emissions-rose-for-the-firs.html">Global Energy and CO<sub>2</sub> Status Report, 2017</a>” (Report)
on March 22, 2018.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The IEA reviews
aspects of global energy use and greenhouse gas emission rates annually.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This schedule has become even more important
since the Paris Climate Agreement among virtually all nations of the world was
concluded, under the auspices of the United Nations-sponsored organization, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in December 2015.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The essence of the
Paris Agreement is first, setting the goal of keeping the global average
increase in temperature, measured from the beginning of the Industrial
Revolution, under 2</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C (3.8</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">°F), and second, having every nation individually
commit voluntarily to embark on its own program to reduce annual emission rates
for </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">CO<sub>2</sub>
</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">to achieve the
temperature objective.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The
emissions originate from humanity’s burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural
gas) to provide energy for buildings, industry, and transportation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">An <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/350/6265/1168.full.pdf">analysis of those promised emission rates</a>,
however, showed that they were inadequate to limit the global temperature rise
as intended.</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The Report finds that,
for 2017</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> world-wide demand for energy increased 2.1% over
that for 2016.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>CO<sub>2</sub> emission
rates derived from that demand increased by 1.4%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The total amount of CO<sub>2</sub> emitted during
the year was the highest recorded to date, showing that <u>the world, instead
of making progress toward attaining the goals of the Paris Agreement, is
actually regressing</u>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Dr Fatih Birol, the
IEA’s Executive Director, said of these findings “<span style="color: #4d4d4d;">The
robust global economy pushed up energy demand last year, which was mostly met
by fossil fuels….</span>The significant growth in global energy-related carbon
dioxide emissions in 2017 tells us that current efforts to combat climate
change are far from sufficient.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Use of
all three fossil fuels increased in 2017, providing 81% of total energy demand,
even as renewable energy generation (from solar, wind and hydropower) increased
dramatically, by 6.3%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The United States
was among just a handful of nations whose emission rates actually decreased.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Conclusion</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Worsening of global warming and its
consequent climate change effects cause major harms, and inflict costly damages
the world over.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, “the <a href="http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1421533112">most severe drought [on ] record</a>” in the Middle East, made worse by human activity, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>created
sociopolitical conditions that contributed to the start of the Syrian civil war.
The has led to dire consequences for security and stability in the
region.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many instances of extreme
weather and climate events, such as the 2017 hurricanes affecting the Caribbean
and southern U. S., have been at least partly attributed to global
warming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Warmer temperatures adversely
alter ecological balances such as with <a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/rmrs/projects/bark-beetles-natural-and-dramatic-forest-disturbance">pine bark beetle infestations</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">All nations of the
world, including the U.S., must redouble their efforts to minimize further
emissions of CO<sub>2</sub> and other greenhouse gases, with great
urgency.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Without concerted, assertive action keeping
the global temperature increase to less than 2</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C will not be possible.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">© 2018 Henry Auer</span></div>
</span><br />Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-934915076932018372017-11-17T21:57:00.000-05:002017-11-17T21:57:12.600-05:00Role of Global Warming in Present and Future Hurricanes<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Summary</span></u></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The day that Hurricane Harvey made landfall in Texas the water
temperature in the Gulf of Mexico was about 3-7</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°F higher than the average for 1961-1990.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is important, because warmer water
releases more moisture into the air than cooler water, feeding heavier rainfall.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This contributed to the extreme,
unprecedented flooding in the Houston area caused by Harvey.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More moisture also leads to stronger winds in
storms.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Climate models project that if humanity continues
to burn fossil fuels without restraint the added carbon dioxide produced will
lead to sharply higher global average temperatures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These will produce more frequent and intense
extreme weather and climate events, which bring serious socioeconomic harms to
society.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One model study of storm
activity along the Texas coast finds that the probability of an event will
triple, from 6% per year to 18% per year, by the end of this century if
emissions continue unabated.<o:p></o:p></span></i><br />
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</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;"></span></i><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">Climate scientists have been warning of major climate
consequences from man-made greenhouse gas emissions for almost three
decades.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those predictions have not
changed, indeed have only improved, as scientific capabilities grew.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If humanity had responded earlier, the costs
of action would have been lower or spread over longer times.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the absence of past action at the scale
needed, now is the time to act.<o:p></o:p></span></i><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i><br />
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<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Introduction</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Climate scientists understand that the
long-term global average temperature will continue to increase largely in
response to the increased concentration of carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) and
other greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>CO<sub>2</sub> is increasing since it is the
combustion product of humanity’s burning of fossil fuels (i.e., fuels based on
carbon: coal, petroleum products and natural gas).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Other GHGs likewise arise from human
activity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>CO<sub>2</sub> is especially
significant since, once emitted into the air, it resides there for centuries;
it continues accumulating without balancing effects that remove it from the
atmosphere (after about one-third of it dissolves into the ocean).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The greenhouse effect originating from these excess
GHGs raises the global average temperature.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The temperature will remain elevated in coming centuries as the excess GHGs
continue residing in the atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">One effect of higher temperatures at the surface of
lakes and oceans is that more water evaporates as the water temperature rises,
by about 4% per degree F (about 7% per degree C).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In addition, evaporation of water vapor
requires the input of heat; as a result the surrounding air momentarily cools
off.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Conversely, as water vapor
condenses, such as in cloud and raindrop formation, heat is released, warming
the surrounding air momentarily.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These
temperature changes lead to local winds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Storms such as hurricanes sweep over ocean water and
entrap large amounts of water vapor.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>When the vapor condenses the liquid falls to the ground as rain.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As this activity intensifies strong winds
result.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Climate scientists foresee that
as the earth warms, storms such as hurricanes will potentially carry more water
vapor and generate stronger winds than in earlier decades.</span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Continued GHG emissions will lead to a
higher incidence of extreme hurricanes.</span></u></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) pubished its Fifth Assessment Report, Part 1, in
2013.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It includes climate model
projections of the relationship between the excess CO<sub>2</sub> accumulated
in the atmosphere from human activity and the predicted increase in the global
average temperature resulting from the added CO<sub>2</sub>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The models were run by assuming four CO<sub>2</sub>
emission scenarios up to the year 2100: the most stringent ends GHG emissions
beyond 2050, while the least stringent continues current use and unabated future
growth in use of fossil fuels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
results are shown in the graphic below, showing the dependence of the global
average temperature on the atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> level, including the
historical record of global average temperature from 1880 to 2010 in the lower
left of the image.</span></div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kQxkgr2FegA/Wg-cIqk7hMI/AAAAAAAACYQ/XNgLer8apj8QHhkxUbpuF5_xJwRaM7Z8ACLcBGAs/s1600/IPCC%2BCO2-Temp%2BProjxn.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="577" data-original-width="750" height="491" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kQxkgr2FegA/Wg-cIqk7hMI/AAAAAAAACYQ/XNgLer8apj8QHhkxUbpuF5_xJwRaM7Z8ACLcBGAs/s640/IPCC%2BCO2-Temp%2BProjxn.png" width="640" /></a></div>
</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Historical
record</span></b><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> of global annual temperature increase above the
average for 1861-1880 (vertical axis) as a function of historical atmospheric
accumulated weight of excess carbon dioxide, due to human use of fossil fuels,
above the level in 1870 (<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">black; lower
left</b>). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The circles mark decades from
1870 to 2100.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Future model projections</b> of the same temperature-carbon dioxide
dependencies are shown from 2010 to 2100, based on four scenarios describing
the stringency of policy used to limit future emissions (<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #002060;">dark blue, most stringent; </span><span style="color: #2e74b5; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">light blue,
next less stringent; </span><span style="color: #ffc000;">orange, weak limits on
emissions; </span><span style="color: red;">red, continued emissions from
unabated use of fossil fuels</span></b>).<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Summary for Policymakers. </span><a href="http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: #0563c1;">http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf</span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The historical data show that in 2010 the global
average temperature was about 0.9</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°C </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">(1.6</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°F) higher
than in 1870.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The
modeling shows that the most stringent scenario (<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #002060;">dark blue</span></b><span style="color: #002060;">)</span> projects a temperature increase above the 1870 level of about
1.8</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°C </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">(3.2</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°F) by 2050-2100.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>On the other hand, the scenario based on unconstrained continued use of
carbon-containing fuels (</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">red</span></b><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">) foresees
that the global average temperature in 2100 will be </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">about
4.7</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°C </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">(8.5</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">°F) above the 1870 temperature.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Such a drastic increase in global temperature
will lead to periods of time, and/or regions of the earth’s surface,
experiencing one or more of fierce heat waves; extreme storms that may be more
frequent, or have more intense rainfall and winds; droughts; wildfires; and
pronounced increases in sea levels.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Hurricane Harvey pummeled Houston and neighboring regions with
torrential rainfall</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"> in August 2017.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While the hurricane would likely have
happened anyway, rainfall was more intense because the water of the Gulf of
Mexico was warmer than in the past.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
is seen in heat map for the Gulf, shown below for the day that Harvey made
landfall.</span><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mr-x8EplxbU/Wg-cJttgKPI/AAAAAAAACYc/osbBtpFvtNI-v56wUWlF9xj7u-ax7Uh1gCEwYBhgL/s1600/2017%2BHarvey%2BSST.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="634" data-original-width="646" height="628" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mr-x8EplxbU/Wg-cJttgKPI/AAAAAAAACYc/osbBtpFvtNI-v56wUWlF9xj7u-ax7Uh1gCEwYBhgL/s640/2017%2BHarvey%2BSST.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Source: </span></span><a href="http://www.climatesignals.org/node/7158"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: Calibri;">http://www.climatesignals.org/node/7158</span></span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> (accessed late August 2017).<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">(The legend under the heat map is the one appearing
on the web site from which the map was copied.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The map makes clear that the excess heat in the Gulf of Mexico abutting
the Texas coast, shown by the color code bar at the right, was a factor in the
extreme rainfall and flooding generated by the storm. </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">As explained in the Introduction, warmer water
leads to more moisture evaporating into the storm.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A second factor was that the hurricane
lingered over the Houston area for several days.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The total rainfall from the storm <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-harvey-2017-rainfall-map-2017-8">at Cedar Bayou</a> was 51.88 in (1318 mm)</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">,
perhaps the highest in the region. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The likelihood of a return event of a
hurricane like Harvey increases 3-fold in the unrestrained emission scenario</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">
described above for the first graphic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>K. Emanuel published an <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/11/07/1716222114.full.pdf">analysis </a></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/11/07/1716222114.full.pdf">analysis of hurricane rainfall properties </a>by modeling previous storms impacting Texas.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was carried out historically for the
period 1980-2016, and with the unrestrained scenario for 2081-2100.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He developed results assuming a storm with
500 mm (19.7 in) of rainfall, much less than the local maximum cited above for
Cedar Bayou.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The likelihood of such
precipitation is evaluated at 6% per year for 2017, and increases three-fold to
18% per year by the final decades of this century if fossil fuel use remains
unconstrained. Emanuel also found that for the period 1981-2000 the historical
likelihood is modeled as 1% per year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thus,
his modeling shows that global warming has already increased hurricane/storm
likelihoods in recent decades by a factor of six, and for the century-long
interval from the end of the 20<sup>th</sup> century to the end of 21<sup>st</sup>
century by 18-fold.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Conclusion</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Climate scientists have been warning for almost
three decades of the hazards arising from increased levels of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The increase in
atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> from 1958 to the present is shown below.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Bm2JgCMLF_g/Wg-gOOD7mqI/AAAAAAAACYk/iEjTx_ri7GkYeoZbuVkAyDKEzOLz5JSlQCLcBGAs/s1600/2017%2BCO2%2BLevels.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="600" height="332" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Bm2JgCMLF_g/Wg-gOOD7mqI/AAAAAAAACYk/iEjTx_ri7GkYeoZbuVkAyDKEzOLz5JSlQCLcBGAs/s400/2017%2BCO2%2BLevels.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Atmospheric concentration of CO<sub>2</sub> in parts
of CO<sub>2</sub> per million parts of air; ppm). </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Source: </span><a href="http://www.co2.earth/"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: #0563c1;">www.CO2.earth</span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">From the first IPCC Assessment Report in 1990 to the
fifth in 2013-2014, the forecasts of future climate trends and harmful events have
not changed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was already understood in1990
that manmade global warming imperiled our society’s wellbeing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What has changed is first, an increase in the
CO<sub>2</sub> level from about 355 ppm in 1990 to 402 ppm in August 2016 (see
the graphic just above); and second, increased certainty in the predictions of
the effects of higher levels of greenhouse gases on the earth’s climate,
arising from dramatic increases in data available, sophistication of climate
models employed, and the computational power of modern supercomputers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The flooding from the hurricanes that struck the
Caribbean and southeastern U. S. in the summer of 2017 is just one example of
the types of extreme events that climate scientists have foreseen over the past
decades.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Others include heat waves,
droughts, forest wildfires and sea level rise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In the earlier decades they were only predictions, dismissed by
many.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But by today the warnings have
come to pass; extreme events will increase in occurrence and severity as
warming worsens.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The harms and damages inflicted by extreme events
have major economic and societal consequences.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The need arises to reconstruct damaged homes and facilities and to undertake
projects that increase resiliency in the face of future climate threats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These costs ultimately fall on the population
at large, for example from increased insurance premiums and higher taxes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Had earlier action been undertaken it is
likely that such societal costs would have been lower, or at least spread out
over longer time frames.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">As of today, however, much of the response is on an
emergency basis, i.e. as the response to unforeseen disasters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The U.S. in particular, as well as the world
at large, should accept the reality of the climate change threat.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We must make the investments now that are
needed to minimize further greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the threats
already with us. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</div>
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</div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">© 20</span>17 Henry Auer</span><br />
<br />
Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-19915840076773855302017-10-26T22:48:00.000-04:002017-10-26T22:55:10.394-04:00Politics Trumps Science at the Environmental Protection Agency<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">Summary.</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
Environmental Protection Agency cancelled presentations by three EPA scientists
at a conference about the effects of climate change on Narragansett Bay, Rhode
Island.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their work focused on the
effects of climate change on the ecology of the Bay.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>EPA gave no reason.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It has been supporting this research for
decades, but in its draft budget for the coming year the agency has zeroed out
support for all 28 of its estuary projects.<o:p></o:p></i></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">Administrator
Pruitt has publicly rejected the role of humans in causing climate change,
suggesting there remains some disagreement over the issue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact, 99.99% of climate scientists affirm
the reality that humans cause global warming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Scientists the world over agree fossil fuel use emits excess carbon
dioxide which retains extra heat in the earth system, leading to warming and
its harmful consequences.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">Politicization
of science harms the public because political considerations supersede
scientific reality in developing policy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Here EPA suppressed research findings characterizing effects of
worsening climate change. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A professor of
oceanography at the University of Rhode Island considers the muffling of his
colleagues a deliberate act of scientific censorship.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We must all resist further efforts at
stifling research.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We must reinstate
bona fide science as the guide for our policies.</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">EPA Scientists Prevented from Speaking.</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) abruptly
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/22/climate/epa-scientists.html?emc=edit_tnt_20171023&nlid=13172468&tntemail0=y">cancelled the speaking presentations</a> of three EPA scientists at a conference
about the effects of climate change on Narragansett Bay, in Rhode Island, held
on Oct. 23, 2017.
One of them, </span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">a research
ecologist at the EPA’s National Health and Environmental Effects Research
Laboratory Atlantic Ecology Division in Rhode Island</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">
was to give the keynote address. The other two, a postdoctoral researcher
at the same EPA facility and a scientific contractor for EPA, were to be on a
panel addressing the topic </span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">“The
Present and Future Biological Implications of Climate Change.”</span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">EPA’s decision was
relayed to the meeting organizers just one business day before the conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No substantive reason was provided for the prohibition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">The NBE Program was the host for the
conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It issued a 500-page
Technical Report, entitled “The State of Narragansett Bay and Its Watershed”, on
the day of the conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of three effects
stressing the condition of the bay, climate change was identified as one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This in turn was broken down to effects of
temperature change, precipitation intensity and frequency, and sea level rise.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">The Narragansett Bay Estuary Program (NBE Program),
<a href="http://nbep.org/about/the-estuary-program/#1463080108767-ac397927-3047">long supported by EPA</a>, has been studying the ecological health of the bay since
1985.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The NBE was recognized as an “estuary of
national significance” by the EPA’s National Estuary Program in 1988. For
reasons such as these colleagues were surprised at the EPA’s prohibition.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">Research support of US$26 million for all the 28
Estuary Programs, including the NBE Program, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/22/climate/epa-scientists.html?emc=edit_tnt_20171023&nlid=13172468&tntemail0=y">has been dropped</a> from EPA’s proposed budget for 2018. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;"><span style="color: black;">Politicization of science</span></span></u><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk496816492;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;"><span style="color: black;"> harms the public because political
considerations supersede scientific reality in developing policy. Here EPA
suppressed research findings characterizing effects of worsening</span> climate
change. </span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>EPA’s
interference with its NBE Program employees stifles scientific study related to
climate change. “It’s definitely a blatant example of the scientific censorship
we all suspected was going to start being enforced at EPA,” said John King, professor
of oceanography at the University of Rhode Island, the head of the science
advisory committee of the NBE Program. He continued “[t]hey don’t believe in
climate change, so I think what they’re trying to do is stifle discussions of
the impacts of climate change.” <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">Adminstrator Pruitt rejects human-caused
climate change.</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The NBE Program case is but one of the agency’s many political actions.
In March 2017 the Administrator, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/09/epa-scott-pruitt-carbon-dioxide-global-warming-climate-change">Scott Pruitt, said</a> “…there’s tremendous
disagreement about the degree of impact [of ‘human activity on the climate’],
so no, I would not agree that it’s a primary contributor to the global warming
that we see”</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pruitt’s assertion conflicts directly with
EPA’s own statement, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/09/epa-scott-pruitt-carbon-dioxide-global-warming-climate-change">reported by The Guardian</a> on March 9, 2017, “carbon dioxide
is the ‘primary greenhouse gas that is contributing to recent climate change’”.
(This statement could not be accessed on Oct. 26, 2017 using the Guardian’s link
to the EPA page.) Pruitt’s statement is also contradicted by <a href="http://bst.sagepub.com/content/early/2016/04/25/0270467616634958.full.pdf+html">James Lawrence Powell’s journal article</a> (Bulletin of Science, Technology &
Society</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"></span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">
1–4, 2016; DOI:10.1177/0270467616634958</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">).
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He found that during 2013 and 2014 only 4
of </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">69,406</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">
(0.0058%</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">) </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">authors
of peer-reviewed journal articles dealing with climate change rejected the
reality of man-made global warming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That
is, there is no disagreement on impact of human activity on the climate. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
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<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">EPA is cleansing its sites of references
to climate change.</span></u><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/20/climate/epa-climate-change.html?_r=0">EPA has purged most content</a>
dealing with climate change from its web pages related to helping state and
local governments deal with climate change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The site, previously called “Climate and Energy Resources for State,
Local and Tribal Governments” is now titled “Energy Resources for State, Local
and Tribal Governments,” dropping the lead word “Climate”. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The original 375 web pages now are reduced to
175, with changes in content that an outside group terms “substantial”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Looking to the future, a draft outline of EPA’s
plans for the next four years omits mention of climate change.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">EPA is <a href="http://www.pressherald.com/2017/09/03/sea-change-epas-scott-pruitts-push-to-roll-back-vehicle-emission-standards-is-a-disaster/">undertaking a review</a> of automobile Corporate
Average Fuel Economy standards that were intended to increase efficiency and
reduce fuel use by about half by 2025, the Portland Press Herald reports.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“Administrator Scott Pruitt is intent on
subverting that agency’s mission. At the behest of automakers, he is now
reconsidering vehicular emission standards that help protect public health,
save consumers money, and guard against further climate disruption”, the newspaper
writes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It reports that William D.
Ruckelshaus, former EPA director under two Republican presidents, says that
Pruitt’s approach appears more like “taking a meat ax to the protections of
public health and the environment and then hiding [the ax].”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">EPA recently announced a draft rule <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/09/politics/environmental-protection-agency-scott-pruitt-clean-power-plan/index.html">overturning the Clean Power Plan</a> (CPP), the Obama administration’s detailed program to reduce
carbon dioxide emissions from large electric generating plants.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While Scott Pruitt was Attorney General of Oklahoma he helped
lead more than 24 states in suing to overturn the CPP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Gina McCarthy, EPA Administrator under
President Obama, said the proposal “is a wholesale retreat from EPA’s legal,
scientific and moral obligation to address the threats of climate change.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">Discussion<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">Carbon dioxide was identified as a greenhouse gas in
the middle of the nineteenth century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
warning that the gas would contribute to warming of the atmosphere was first
made in 1896.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More recently the work of
hundreds of climate scientists from countries all around the world have been
researching this field for decades.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As
noted above, essentially all agree: Man-made emissions of carbon dioxide from
burning fossil fuels, and other greenhouse gases, are warming the earth system
at geologically unprecedented speed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
effects of fossil fuel use lead to weather extremes, wildfires, sea level rise and
changing habitats of pests and disease carriers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Toxins released from fossil fuels cause
illnesses among the public.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The costs of
future mitigation of, and adaptation to, global warming keep rising, as the
threats become more severe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">The United States is the only country of the more
than 190 nations that joined the Paris Agreement to withdraw from it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of the other nations, only Syria never
acceded to the Agreement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(In October
2017 the only other holdout, Nicaragua, joined the Agreement.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is unconscionable that a nation as
respected as the United States has consistently refused to join the other nations
of the world in recognizing the irrefutable scientific evidence, and acted
accordingly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The present U. S.
administration, instead of mitigating emission rates of greenhouse gases, is consciously
reversing previously enacted policies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The result can only be accelerated emissions of greenhouse gases, with
the consequent worsening of all the effects of warming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This will be a legacy for all our children
and further progeny, one our leaders cannot be proud of.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 105%;">For these reasons we here in the U.S. must act to restrain
Pruitt’s EPA policies and the framework envisioned by the Trump administration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We must reinstate bona fide science as the
guide for our actions.</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">© 2017 Henry Auer</span><br />Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-88803096991227262232017-08-29T22:04:00.000-04:002017-08-29T22:04:09.963-04:00Extreme Rainfall with Flooding in the U. S. South<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Summary</span></u></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Two extreme rainfall events with catastrophic flooding occurred in the
U. S. recently.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first was in the
Baton Rouge, Louisiana, area in August 2016, and the second is ongoing at this
writing in August 2017 in southeastern Texas including Houston.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Attribution
of extreme events to global warming has become more reliable as a result of increased
capabilities built into the statistical procedures employed in such
analyses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Global warming likely
contributed about 20% to the rainfall experienced in the Baton Rouge flooding event
of 2016.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Global
warming is now recognized to be due largely to emissions of greenhouse gases by
humans.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is projected to grow worse in
coming decades if stringent efforts are not made to reduce these
emissions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In that case it is foreseen
that extreme weather events may become more frequent and more severe.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Introduction</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The southern United States has suffered two
episodes of unprecedented rainfall and flooding in the past year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In August 2016 Baton Rouge, Louisiana and the
surrounding area experienced <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Louisiana_floods">torrential rain and rapid, extreme flooding</a>
beginning August 11 and extending beyond August 16.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Major damage and human dislocations resulted
from this catastrophe.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In 2017 Hurricane Harvey left the Gulf of Mexico and
made landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas on August 25.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Contrary to the paths of many hurricanes,
Harvey degenerated into a tropical depression and stalled over southern Texas
for days; as of this writing on August 29 it has drifted slowly to the northeast,
hovering over Houston, Texas. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At various
locations it has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/24/us/hurricane-harvey-texas.html?mcubz=3">drenched the land</a> with 20-40 inches (50-100 cm)
of rain over this time (accessed August 29, 2017), causing extreme flooding, especially
in the Houston area. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is projected to
continue northeastward toward Louisiana in the next day or more. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Louisiana_floods">Flooding in Baton Rouge</a></span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">
arose as an unusual weather pattern leading to excessive rainy conditions slowed
considerably over the region for several days
.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the most severe case rain fell at a
rate of </span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">2–3 inches
(5.1–7.6 cm) per hour, and produced a total of 24 inches (61 cm) of
rainfall, with a maximum recorded as 31.4 inches (79.7 cm) in Watson, Louisiana.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The National Weather Service estimated the
likelihood of such an event as 0.1%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Flooding of eight rivers in the area led to major disruptions and
damage, including damage to 146,000 homes, with tens of thousands of people
relocated to emergency shelters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>About
265,000 children, or one-third of Louisiana’s school pupils, were prevented
from attending school.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="https://www.businessreport.com/business/louisiana-flooding-projected-cost-us-economy-upward-15b">economic impact</a> has been estimated at between $10-$15 billion.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Rainfall and flooding
in southern Texas</span></u><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> is continuing
at the time of this writing, and is expected to migrate east toward Louisiana
in the coming days.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The amount of
rainfall to date is extremely high; an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/24/us/hurricane-harvey-texas.html?mcubz=3">interactive display</a> of rainfall rates
and total accumulated rainfall at various locations is available online
(based on the National Weather Service; accessed August 29, 2017).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As of this writing, the total for the Corpus
Christi area is 20 inches (50 cm), with a maximum rate of almost 3 inches per
hour (7.5 cm per hour) on August 26. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
Houston area is far more seriously affected, according to the interactive
map.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One location northeast of Houston
shows a total rainfall to date of 52 inches (130 cm) with a maximum rate of
about 10 inches per hour (25 cm per hour).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>(The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Houston">normal annual rainfall</a> in Houston
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is 49.8 inches (126 cm).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Images and videos of the flooding, its damage
and human tragedy can be seen currently on news sources and the internet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The economic impacts will certainly be extremely
high.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Reports such as the Fourth National Climate Assessment draft
(NCA) foresee worsening catastrophes such as those described here</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="https://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/the-earth-continues-warming-fourth.html">draft NCA</a> was prepared by climate
scientists and related specialists drawn from thirteen U. S. government
departments and agencies, as well as a large number of scientists in
nongovernmental research facilities</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI";">. </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">They critically assessed
peer-reviewed research and similar public sources, including primary datasets
and widely-recognized climate modeling frameworks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These standards assure that the findings of
the report are objectively accurate, avoiding bias toward any unsubstantiated
point of view.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By law the NCA cannot
make any policy recommendations. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Among its conclusions, </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI";">the NCA finds it is “extremely
likely” that activities by humans have been the “dominant” cause of the warming
observed since the middle of the 20<sup>th</sup> century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It states with “very high confidence” that no
alternatives, such as cyclical changes in solar energy reaching the Earth or
variations in natural planetary factors, can explain the observed climate
changes.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The NCA projects with “high
confidence” that heavy precipitation events will continue increasing over the
21<sup>st</sup> century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As noted, these
trends are attributed to human activity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They will likely worsen considerably as the climate warms.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Global warming contributes to the
severity of extreme weather events</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of the excess heat retained by the earth,
i.e., the land, air and sea, as a result of man-made global warming, 90% enters
the waters of the ocean.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The U. S.
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration finds that the<a href="https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/836614194401267712"> sea surface temperature</a> of the Gulf of Mexico in the early months of 2017 exceeded
the 35-year average for 1981-2016 by about 0.75</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C (1.3</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">F), and about equaled the record for that period.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Since the amount of water vapor that air can hold increases by about 7%
per </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">C
(about 4% per </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">°</span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">F),
the warmer Gulf surface temperature increased the water vapor capacity of the
air by about 5% compared to earlier years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Since the complete weather system defined as hurricane/depression
Harvey is spending a large fraction of its time over the Gulf, it recharges its
moisture content continuously, indefinitely.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Over land, much of this added moisture in the system falls as additional
amounts of rain, compared to earlier years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Similar considerations hold for the Baton Rouge extreme event of 2016.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The physical damage and human harm inflicted
by such calamities is costly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ultimately
much of the burden becomes added expenditures imposed as taxes on the
population at large.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Conclusion</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/attribution-of-extreme-events-to-global.html">Attribution of specific events</a></span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to the general finding that global
temperatures are rising has become far more reliable in recent years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The procedures use advanced statistical measures
to assess whether the extent by which the extreme event exceeds historical
records has explanations other than global warming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If not, a proportion of the overall extreme
event may be attributed to the excess effect provided by global warming. </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Since the Houston extreme rainfall and flooding event
is still in progress, it is too early to attempt attribution of its
causes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><u><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL071460/full">The Baton Rouge event</a></u>,
however, has been assessed by attribution methods.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wang and coworkers identified atmospheric
weather patterns that promoted the catastrophic rainfall of this episode.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Regional model simulations lead to an
estimate that global warming since 1985 likely increased the observed rainfall
by 20%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Authoritative analyses of the earth’s
climate</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> show that the warming experienced to date is
primarily due to man-made additions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This enhances retention of heat within the
earth system rather than radiating excess heat to space.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Continued human activity that produces more
greenhouse gases in the future is expected to worsen this effect, according to
climate models, leading to excessive warming of the planet’s air, land and
oceans.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In such a case, one consequence
is expected to be more severe, and more frequent, extreme weather events such
as the Baton Rouge intense rain and flooding, and hurricane/tropical depression
Harvey currently wreaking havoc in Texas and Louisiana.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Stringent reductions in further
emissions of greenhouse gases</span></u><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> are called for in
order to lessen the impact of future extreme weather events.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">© 2016 Henry Auer</span></span><br />Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738025258220421173.post-23313949672438688072017-08-15T22:08:00.000-04:002017-08-17T10:41:46.961-04:00The Earth Continues Warming: The Fourth National Climate Assessment Draft Report<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Summary</span></u></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span></i></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">A draft of the Fourth National
Climate Assessment reports that the global average temperature for the 30-year
period from 1986 to 2016 rose by 1.2</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">F
(0.7</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">C). </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">It is extremely likely that
activities by humans have been the principal cause of this warming. Extreme
temperature and rainfall events have increased over this time, as have forest wildfires.</span></i></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"></span><o:p></o:p></span> </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Arctic land-based ice has been lost to melting, and
the extent and thickness of sea ice has decreased.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The mean sea level
has risen about 7-8 in (about 26-21 cm) since 1900.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ocean waters have taken up 93% of the excess
heat of the Earth system due to global warming since the 1950s.</span></i></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"></span><o:p></o:p></span> </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Global greenhouse gas emissions
are projected to continue and consequently global temperatures will continue
increasing and related trends will continue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Limits to the intended increase require that humanity reduce annual emissions
to zero by 2100.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></i></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></i> </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The draft states “Choices made
today will determine the magnitude of climate change risks beyond the next few
decades.”<o:p></o:p></span></i>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The Fourth
National Climate Assessment</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
(NCA) is due in 2018 (See Background at the end of this post).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However the U.S. Global Change Research
Program (USGCRP), which oversees preparation of the NCA, has prepared a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/07/climate/document-Draft-of-the-Climate-Science-Special-Report.html">Final Draft of a Climate Science Special Report</a> (CSSR; </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">see Note 1 at the end of the post</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">)
that has become publicly available</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"> as a freestanding document on which the actual NCA
will be based.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms";"></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><u>This
post is based on the CSSR Executive Summary (ES).</u> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Confidence levels </span></i><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">likelihoods</i> given here in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">italics</i>
are taken directly from the ES.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are
carefully defined in the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/07/climate/document-Draft-of-the-Climate-Science-Special-Report.html">CSSR</a></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Phrases in quotes are taken verbatim from the CSSR text.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The
Historical Record</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The
global average temperature has risen</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
above the average for the six decades 1901-1960 by 1.2</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">F
(0.7</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">C) for the recent period from
1986 to 2016 (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">very high confidence</i>).
The map below shows temperature increases gridded across the globe.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms";"></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3IDkpzw8ByY/WZOhLzcQQbI/AAAAAAAACX8/7vYlvgbtjXsn4QKWTw706MR4tYiws6-DQCLcBGAs/s1600/CSSR%2Bglobalmap%2BT%2Bchange.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="726" data-original-width="1024" height="282" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3IDkpzw8ByY/WZOhLzcQQbI/AAAAAAAACX8/7vYlvgbtjXsn4QKWTw706MR4tYiws6-DQCLcBGAs/s400/CSSR%2Bglobalmap%2BT%2Bchange.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><o:p><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Color-coded
global map grid of historical changes in the average temperature for the period
1986-2016 relative to the average from the six-decade reference period 1901-1960,
in </span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">F. No data are available at the
poles, indicated by <span style="color: #7f7f7f; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-themetint: 128;">gray</span>.<span style="color: #7f7f7f; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-themetint: 128;"><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Source:
CSSR; </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/07/climate/document-Draft-of-the-Climate-Science-Special-Report.html"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="color: blue;">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/07/climate/document-Draft-of-the-Climate-Science-Special-Report.html</span></span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
</o:p></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">The map shows that since the
reference decades the entire surface of the planet, both land and sea, has
increased in regional average temperature.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The greatest increase has occurred in Canada (especially in the northern
and Arctic regions), Alaska, Siberia, northeastern China and eastern Brazil.
Indeed, the Arctic is warming about twice as fast as the global average.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><u><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">It is <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">extremely likely</i> that
activities by humans have been the “dominant” cause of the warming</span></u><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"> observed since the middle of the 20<sup>th</sup>
century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No alternatives, such as the
cyclical changes in solar energy reaching the Earth or variations in natural planetary
factors, can explain the observed climate changes (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">very high confidence</i>).</span><br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Extreme climate-related weather events have
increased in number and severity</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since 1980 the cost of such calamities in the
U. S. is over US$1 trillion. Extreme events can impact water quality, agriculture,
human health, infrastructure, and lead to disaster events. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the U. S. the number of high temperature
records in the past 20 years is much higher than the number of low temperature
records (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">very high confidence</i>).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
</span><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Heavy precipitation events in most regions of the U.
S. have increased in intensity and frequency since 1901</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">, especially in the northeast. (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">high confidence</i>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The occurrence of large forest wildfires has
increased in the U. S. West and Alaska since the early 1980s</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">high confidence</i>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The waters of the oceans have absorbed about 93% of the
heat accumulating in the Earth system due to global warming</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> since the 1950s (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">very high confidence</i>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This affects climate patterns around the
world.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">In the Arctic, ice sheets overlaying land have been
melting</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> for at
least the last three decades; in some locations the rate of loss is
accelerating (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">very high confidence</i>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
rate of melting of ice sheets over Greenland has accelerated in the last few
years (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">high confidence</i>). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As this ice melts the water flows to the
ocean, <u>resulting in a net increase of sea level</u>.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span></u><br />
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Arctic sea ice</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> has been imaged since satellite flights permitted.
The sea ice floats on the Arctic Ocean; its area expands and contracts in
freeze-thaw seasonal cycles without any net change to global sea levels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rather, the extent responds to changes in air
and sea temperatures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The least extent,
i.e., the most melting, occurs typically in September.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Striking images showing <u>the loss of
September sea ice from 1984 to 2016, both in thickness (color coded white as having
been formed at least four years earlier) and in overall surface area</u>, are
shown in the images below:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xkPgjai-KYM/WZOhLGD3kmI/AAAAAAAACYA/8m8Sty8ULXAz3MVZIcyZDGVzX6_Xddy6wCEwYBhgL/s1600/CSSR%2BSatellite%2BSeaIceLoss.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="644" data-original-width="507" height="640" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xkPgjai-KYM/WZOhLGD3kmI/AAAAAAAACYA/8m8Sty8ULXAz3MVZIcyZDGVzX6_Xddy6wCEwYBhgL/s640/CSSR%2BSatellite%2BSeaIceLoss.png" width="500" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Satellite
images of Arctic sea ice extent and thickness in September, for 1984 (top) and
2016 (bottom).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The color bar shows the local
age of the ice in years, a proxy for its thickness, from recent (<span style="color: #7030a0;">dark gray</span>) to more than 4 years (white). <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Source: Adapted
from CSSR; </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/07/climate/document-Draft-of-the-Climate-Science-Special-Report.html"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="color: blue;">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/07/climate/document-Draft-of-the-Climate-Science-Special-Report.html</span></span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Sea ice thickness has decreased by between 4.3 and
7.5 feet</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>September sea ice extent has decreased by
10.7% to 15.9% per decade (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">very high confidence</i>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These changes reflect warming of the Arctic
region over this time frame.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">virtually certain</i> that human activity
has contributed to Arctic surface temperature increases, sea ice loss, glacier
mass loss and snow extent decline seen across the Arctic (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">very high confidence</i>).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The mean sea level has risen about 7-8 in (about
26-21 cm) since 1900</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
(<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">very high confidence</i>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is attributed “substantially” to
human-induced climate change (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">high confidence</i>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The rate of sea level rise is greater than
any found in the last 2,800 years (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">medium
confidence</i>).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span></u><br />
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Ocean waters are absorbing more than 25% of the
carbon dioxide</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
emitted into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Carbon dioxide is weakly acidic when
dissolved in water, increasing its acidity (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">very
high confidence</i>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This negatively
impacts marine ecosystems in many important ways.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Projected Future Climate Trends</span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span></u> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Extreme climate-related weather events will continue
for many decades</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">.
</span></div>
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">By the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century if the
world generates significant reductions in greenhouse gases the global average
temperature increase could be limited to 3.6</span></u><u><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span></u><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">F (2.0</span></u><u><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span></u><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">C) or less</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">. This would require a pathway of
annual GHG emissions reaching near zero by then. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In contrast, minimal constraints on the annual
emissions rate could result in a rise of 5.8-11.9</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">F
(3.2-6.6</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">C) (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">high confidence</i>).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Even
if the annual rate of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were to fall to zero, the high
burden of GHGs already accumulated in the atmosphere would persist for a long
time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The CSSR foresees that even in
this event the global average temperature would rise further (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">high confidence</i>), perhaps by an
additional 1.1</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">F (0.6</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">C)
(<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">medium confidence</i>).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">But
<u>realistic projections all foresee continued GHG emissions into the future</u>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>U. S. temperatures will continue to rise (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">very high confidence</i>); new records for
high temperatures will be frequent (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">virtually
certain</i>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Temperatures by the end of
this century will be much higher than the present (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">high confidence</i>).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Heavy precipitation events are projected to continue
increasing over the 21<sup>st</sup> century</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">high
confidence</i>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the western U. S.,
large reductions in mountain snowpack, and more precipitation falling as rain
rather than snow, are projected as the climate warms (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">high confidence</i>). These trends are attributed to human activity (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">high confidence</i>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They will likely worsen considerably as the
climate warms (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">very</i> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">high confidence</i>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the absence of reductions in emission
rates long-duration hydrological drought, due to decreased retention of soil
moisture, becomes more likely by the end of the century (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">very</i> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">high confidence</i>).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Further warming is projected to lead to increases in
wildfires</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">medium confidence</i>).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span></u> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">If GHG emission rates continue unconstrained, the
average sea surface temperature is projected to increase about 4.9</span></u><u><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span></u><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">F (about 2.7</span></u><u><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span></u><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">C)
by 2100 </span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">(<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">very high confidence</i>).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The mean sea level will continue increasing, to
varying extents depending on future emission rates</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">, by at least 1 ft (30 cm; <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">very high confidence</i>) and as much as 4
ft (130 cm; <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">low confidence</i>) by 2100. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the Antarctic ice shelf is lost due to high
emission rates the upper bound could be as high as 8 ft (260 cm).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">extremely
likely</i> that sea level will continue rising beyond 2100 (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">high confidence</i>) as ice continues
melting.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Further loss in Arctic sea ice will continue
throughout the 21<sup>st</sup> century, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">very
likely </i>resulting in a virtually ice-free ocean by the 2040s</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">very high confidence</i>).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Conclusions of the CSSR</span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></u> </div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Limiting the total global average temperature
increase to 3.6</span></u><u><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span></u><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">F (2.0</span></u><u><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span></u><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">C), or less, from a 19<sup>th</sup> century baseline
will require significant constraints on future GHG emission rates</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">. Even though annual emission rates
decreased slightly in 2014 and 2015, they are still too high to meet
commitments that nations made upon entering the 2015 Paris Agreement (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">high confidence</i>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indeed, present and projected emission rates
would bring the atmospheric level of GHGs to levels so high that they have not occurred
for at least the last 50 million years (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">medium
confidence</i>).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">New
carbon dioxide released “today” is long-lived, persisting in the atmosphere for
decades to thousands of years. <u>Therefore it’s important to note that the
relationship between total atmospheric CO<sub>2 </sub>concentration and the increase
in global temperature is a linear one</u>.</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The
ES states “<u>Choices made today will determine the magnitude of climate change
risks beyond the next few decades</u>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Stabilizing global mean temperature below 3.6</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">F
(2</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">C) or lower relative to
preindustrial levels requires significant reductions in …CO<sub>2</sub>
emissions…before 2040 and likely requires net emissions to become zero….”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If humanity continues emitting GHGs at rates higher
than called for here we would reach the 3.6</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">F
limit only two decades from now, with further temperature increases later.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Finally,
changes that are unanticipated or difficult or impossible to manage, may arise
during the next century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Examples are
complex (or simultaneously occurring) phenomena, and self-reinforcing changes
(positive feedbacks).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Such occurrences
would accelerate the world’s changes to points beyond the accepted CO<sub>2</sub>
temperature limits.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Analysis</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Issuance
of this NCA is mandated by an act of Congress.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It is important that this Final Draft, the CSSR, continue on its
bureaucratic trajectory and be issued on schedule in 2018.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet some of the scientists contributing to
the Draft hold positions in departments or agencies whose heads have expressed
disdain or opposition to the phenomenon of global warming, the Paris Climate
Agreement, have acted to reverse federal policies that limit extraction and use
of fossil fuels, or have deleted pages concerning global warming from their
agency’s websites.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They all work in an
administration whose head has declared global warming to be a hoax. These situations potentially place the
contributing scientists in conflicting positions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their work is commendable and should be
supported.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The NCA should be issued
without being altered, nor should it be suppressed.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.25pt;">[<u>Update August 17, 2017</u>: The science
journal <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Nature</i> has <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/fears-rise-for-us-climate-report-as-trump-officials-take-reins-1.22391">published a news article</a> that discusses the CSSR
and the political considerations facing the U. S. administration as it weighs issuing
the Fourth NCA. Climate scientists are concerned about the fate of the Report. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Nature</i> notes that the Heartland
Institute, a conservative think tank that promotes skepticism about global
warming, is consulting with the Environmental Protection Agency on this issue.]</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span> </div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">This
NCA is only the latest in a long series of reports detailing the reality of
warming and specifying the harms that global warming and climate change cause
to our planet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In particular, it
attributes the cause to human activity, including the burning of fossil fuels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">We
must all undertake to reduce emissions of GHGs in our personal lives, and
support policies promoting reductions at the state, national and international
levels.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Background</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The U. S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 </span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">mandates preparation of
assessments of global change every four years to “assist the nation and the
world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural
processes of global change”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It assesses
the current state of scientific understanding of global change on the natural
and human environments. Its tasks, however, do not include formulation of
policies to address global warming.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Climate scientists and related specialists</span></u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> drawn from thirteen U. S.
government departments and agencies </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">(see Note 2 at the end of this
post)</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">, as well as a
large number of scientists in nongovernmental research facilities, prepared the
CSSR and the NCA</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">. </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">They critically assessed
peer-reviewed research and similar public sources, including primary datasets
and recognized climate modeling frameworks.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
</span><u><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Notes<o:p></o:p></span></u><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science
Special Report: A Sustained Assessment Activity of the U.S. Global Change Research
Program [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart,
and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC,
USA, 669 pp.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p></span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: black; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">The federal scientists involved in preparing the
NCA and the CSSR are drawn from the: </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.6in; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Department of Agriculture, </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.6in; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Department of Commerce (National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration),</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.6in; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Department of Defense, </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.6in; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Department of Energy, </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.6in; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Department of Health and Human
Services, </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.6in; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Department of the Interior, </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.6in; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Department of State, </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.6in; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Department of Transportation, </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.6in; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Environmental Protection Agency,</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.6in; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">National Aeronautics and Space
Administration, </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.6in; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">National Science Foundation, </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.6in; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Smithsonian Institution, and </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.6in; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">U.S. Agency for International
Development.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"> </span></div>
</span><br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">© 20</span></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">17 Henry Auer</span></span><br />Henry Auerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15071084029220718074noreply@blogger.com1