The European Union’s Energy Policy. II. Emissions Reduction Technologies

Summary:  In March 2011 European Commission issued its Energy Roadmap 2050, directed to reducing its overall emissions of greenhouse gases by 80-95% below the emissions level of 1990 by 2050.  The Roadmap implements a cap-and-trade market mechanism with successively lower greenhouse gas emission caps to provide market incentives to move away from use of fossil fuels that burn to form carbon dioxide, the important greenhouse gas (see the preceding post). 

This post summarizes the greenhouse gas abatement policies and technologies presented in the Roadmap.  The plan relies, among others, on implementing drastic energy efficiency programs, major migration away from use of fossil fuels and toward renewable energy sources, and to the extent that fossil fuels remain in use, carbon capture and storage technology to remove CO₂ before it enters the atmosphere.

The Roadmap is the first international agreement put in place that follows the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol at the end of 2012.  It provides comprehensive and detailed considerations of the many factors, technological, economic and policy-based, involved in implementing such a bold endeavor in an international framework.  As such, it provides a useful example for the nations of the world as they negotiate a successor treaty to the expiring Kyoto Protocol.

Introduction.  In March 2011 the European Commission (EC) embarked on a long term program, its Energy Roadmap 2050 (the Roadmap), to reduce its overall emissions of greenhouse gases by 80-95% below the emissions level of 1990 by 2050 (see this earlier post.  This goal was adopted as a follow-up to the earlier European Union program to reduce emissions by 20% by 2020. Additional goals for 2020 include lowering energy consumption in the EU BY 20% compared to reference projections for 2020, and obtaining 20% of the EU’s total energy, and 10% of energy used in transport, from renewable sources. The Roadmap additionally established the interim goals for emissions reductions of about 40% by 2030, and about 60% reduction by 2040.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, established under the United Nations, issued its most recent comprehensive climate report, the 4^th Assessment Report, in 2007 .  It determined that an essential objective is to limit the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere such that the resulting global average temperature rise be less than 2ºC (3.6ºF) above the level that prevailed before the industrial revolution began. It states that “deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required according to [climate] science” to achieve this objective.  This is because higher global temperatures are predicted to inflict damages from altered weather and climate events; these are already occurring, as evidenced variously by increased aridity, drought, and wildfires; extreme rain and floods; and sea level rise, among other harmful effects, in recent years.  This objective was adopted at the Copenhagen (2009) and Cancun (2010) climate change meetings.  Currently the average global temperature has increased by about 0.75°C (1.4ºF).  Various climate models predict that further global temperatures may increase anywhere from 1.1°C to 6.4°C beyond today’s level.

The previous post detailed the EU’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), a cap-and-trade emission reduction program beginning in 2005 to embark on the path to reduce emissions within the member states of the European Union.  The present post summarizes the technologies and policies to be invoked in order to achieve the reductions in greenhouse gas emissions envisioned by the ETS.

Energy Roadmap 2050.  The Roadmap sets out in detail how the EU might achieve its objectives of providing a secure, competitive decarbonized energy economy (see References).  Decarbonization relies critically on implementing a variety of technologies that reduce or avoid emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This post presents a summary of the significant features of the Roadmap.

Various scenarios for achieving the objectives were explored using an EU-wide energy/economic model; the Roadmap at this time does not settle on adopting any particular one or set of them.

For comparison with the decarbonizing scenarios, the Roadmap defines two baseline scenarios.  The Reference scenario incorporates current projections for economic growth and energy use (as of 2010) including reductions in emissions from the first target date of 2020.  The Current Policies Initiative scenario (CPI) updates the Reference scenario primarily by accounting for changing attitudes and policies leading to reduced use of nuclear power in response to the nuclear accident at Fukushima, Japan.

The proposed decarbonizing scenarios to be implemented in providing energy for the EU are:

The High Energy Efficiency scenario implements high efficiency measures in buildings and appliances.  Stringent codes for new construction and appliances will take effect, and, with somewhat greater difficulty, retrofitting of existing structures will be undertaken.  Furthermore, utilities will be obligated to obtain energy savings.  This scenario envisions decreased demand in energy of more than 40% by 2050. 

The Diversified Supply Technologies scenario is based on competitive development of a variety of technologies in a market framework.  Carbon pricing (to be accomplished by the ETS; see the previous post) relies on public acceptance of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage (CCS).

The Delayed CCS scenario is similar to the Diversified scenario except that deployment of CCS technology is delayed.  This leads to a higher proportion of nuclear energy being used.

The Renewable Energy Sources (RES) scenario relies on strong support for developing RES, to a proportion of 75% of total energy, and 97% of electric power, by 2050.

The Low Nuclear scenario resembles the Diversified scenario but assumes no new nuclear power plants are built.  This leads to higher deployment of CCS technologies.

The Roadmap illustrates the proportions of energy that can be provided in 2030 and in 2050 from various sources using the scenarios above in the following graphic.

Gray bars: Ranges of proportional contributions envisioned for the various energy sources in the years shown.  Yellow diamonds: Actual proportions for the various sources in 2005.

Source: European Commission, Ref. 1

Graph 1 shows that renewable energy sources, which in 2005 provided only a small fraction of the EU’s total energy, will grow providing anywhere between about 40% and 60% by 2050 (the text in the Ref. 1 mentions as much as 75%, see above).  The contribution of oil decreases significantly, as does that of solid fuels (e.g., coal).  Nuclear energy is not predicted to grow significantly; indeed it may decrease significantly by 2050.

Major changes in the EU’s energy economy.  The Roadmap is predicated on several significant departures from the current energy economy.

Electric power usage is predicted to grow linearly to about 28% of total energy demand in 2050 even under the Reference or CPI scenarios.  Under the various decarbonization scenarios, however, electricity demand grows significantly to a predicted range of about 36-38%, with the main increase occurring after about 2031.  Electricity generation would have to undergo a significant transformation of its physical plant so that it can be 57-65% decarbonized by 2030, and 96-99% decarbonized by 2050.  Clearly, as seen in the graphic above, RES play a major role in achieving this goal. 

The graphic below illustrates the effects of new technologies on achieving decarbonization by 2050.  Overall energy usage is projected to decrease by

Gross energy consumption 1990-2010 (historical) and 2011-2050 (projected).  Note that the vertical axis begins at 1000 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent).  Blue: Reference and CPI scenarios.  Green: Effects of various decarbonization scenarios.

Source: European Commission, Ref. 1.

about 29% by 2050 as a result of deploying decarbonization technologies.

Renewable energy will grow to provide the biggest portion of energy supply by 2050.  The challenge for the EU is to create market incentives that will lead to more economical deployment and sale of power generated from renewable sources. Incentives need to be provided to develop advanced renewable technologies such as ocean energy, concentrated solar power and advanced biofuels.  Even so, it is foreseen that wind energy will be the largest component of RES. In addition energy storage modalities and expanded transmission capabilities will have to be supported.

Carbon capture and storage is a principal technology that permits continued use fossil fuels without contributing to atmospheric CO₂ emission.  CCS contributes to greater use of electricity in transport, which today is essentially completely reliant on primary inefficient burning of fossil fuels with their attendant emissions of CO₂.  The Roadmap notes the contingent nature of deploying CCS technology.  A recent post has characterized the challenges remaining with CCS.  If commercially implemented, the EC expects CCS to contribute significantly to most scenarios.  For example, in the Low Nuclear scenario up to 32% of power generation would rely on CCS.

The EC earlier had issued a critical assessment of needs for successfully deploying CCS (Ref. 2).  Previous EC documents had already established the need for widespread use of CCS in the EU starting in 2020.  This Impact Assessment (CCS-IA; Ref. 2) addresses how to proceed to demonstrate viable CCS technologies, building on the economic incentives provided by operation of the EU ETS (cap-and-trade market for emission allowances).  The CCS-IA recognizes the critical need, as of its issuance in 2008, to begin demonstration projects for CCS right away in order to have this technology available by 2020.

The CCS-IA stated that in order to meet such a timeline, CCS facilities demonstrating various available technologies (see, for example this previous post) would need to be constructed by 2015, and be operated successfully for the five years leading up to 2020.  It is estimated that 10-12 projects world be needed to exemplify differing technologies and geological features involved.  The technical and economic experience gained at this stage would be used to expand CCS to commercial significance in the following years.  Such expansion, because of the long lead times involved, would have to be started even as the shakedown operation of the demonstration plants was under way. 

The CCS-IA recognized that funding for the demonstrations was not available from the EU, so that Member States and private enterprise would need to fund them at the outset.  In addition, operation of the EU ETS would not provide sufficient carbon pricing to stimulate investment until after 2020, so that there would be significant early-stage funding imbalances.  The CCS-IA notes that carbon pricing in the range of EURO 25-30 (US$32.70-39.20 as of Feb. 1, 2012)/tonneCO₂ would approximate a break-even point for investment in CCS.

Energy efficiency in buildings, transport and lifestyles constitutes a major contributor to decarbonizing the energy economy (Energy Efficiency Plan 2011 (EEP); Ref. 4).  The Roadmap envisions that all buildings, including homes, be zero net consumers of energy, and indeed, could produce more energy than they use.  This is readily accomplished for new construction, but should be implemented for existing buildings as well.

The EEP recommends, first, making public buildings more energy efficient, in a campaign called “Leading by Example”.  From 2019, public buildings should be “nearly zero-energy”.  Refurbishing existing buildings should be undertaken at the rate of 3% per year, to attain a level of the best 10% of existing buildings, using energy performance contracting.

The EEP notes that 40% of energy use is in houses, of which two-thirds is for space heating.  It seeks to promote reducing energy consumption in homes by half to three-quarters, and that of appliances by half.  District heating, and combined heat-power systems will be promoted.  Energy service companies promote energy refurbishing by providing financing based on savings in projected energy expenses.  The EEP also promotes measures for energy efficiency in business and industry.  (Previous posts on this blog here and here have also dealt with energy efficiency with reference to the U. S.)

Energy efficiency in transport.  An EU-wide policy of efficiency in transport promotes drastic reductions in use of fossil fuels in most forms of transport (Ref. 5). The plan seeks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60%.  Important steps include eliminating gasoline-fueled cars in cities by 2050; 40% of aviation fuel to be sustainable by 2050; major expansion of high-speed rail leading to most medium-distance passenger transport being by rail by 2050; and 50% transfer of long-distance road freight to rail and water by 2050.

Enhanced energy efficiency will depend on a change in personal behavior and public attitudes.  This can be facilitated by appropriate policies that place capital for efficiency in hands of the public and the business community.

Fossil fuels are envisioned to continue playing a role in the short to intermediate term.  Coal, when burned, emits the most CO₂ per unit of energy obtained among the fossil fuels, about twice as much as natural gas.  If CCS becomes commercially viable, coal could continue to play a role. 

Natural gas is viewed as a source of flexible backup for fluctuating demand unless CCS becomes available for gas-burning technologies.  In that case gas could be considered as a largely renewable energy resource.  CCS, in order to contribute significantly to decarbonization, would have to be commercially viable by about 2030 and expand considerably beyond that date.

Oil is likely to remain an energy source in 2050, especially for use in long distance passenger and freight transport.  The Roadmap suggests that the EU maintain refining capacity in order to preserve its influence in the oil economy.

Nuclear energy is the single largest decarbonized energy source in the EU today.  The Roadmap notes that certain Member States consider the risks involved in nuclear energy to be unacceptable; the frame of mind in Europe has additionally grown more negative after the nuclear accident at the Fukushima facility in 2011.  Costs for ensuring safety, decommissioning aged plants and disposing of nuclear waste are likely to increase.  The EC proposes to maintain policies supporting nuclear energy in those States willing to continue its use.

Carbon pricing through the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, according to the Roadmap, provides the “central pillar of European climate policy”.  It provides a technology-neutral economic environment that stimulates the research, development and deployment (RD&D) of the various new technologies needed to implement the EU’s decarbonized energy economy.  Needs for new capital across the Roadmap are considerable, and the incentives for creating new profits are correspondingly great.  The Roadmap recognizes that private investment will drive much of this RD&D, while understanding that public support for developing certain new technologies, such as electric cars and decarbonizing technologies, may also be needed at the early stages.

Buy-in by the public is crucial to implementing the Roadmap.  Many aspects of life experienced by the population will be affected by deploying new technologies.  Employment opportunities and job requirements will be altered.  The physical environment experienced by the public will change its visual and structural aspects.  Energy pricing mechanisms will change, and for some fiscal support for charges may be needed.  The EU is a convention embracing 27 sovereign states; each will need to accept a greater degree of integration into a trans-European energy infrastructure.

Conclusion

The European Commission’s Energy Roadmap 2050 presents a detailed strategic and logistical path to achieve a reduction of between 80% and 95% in emissions of greenhouse gases, referenced to the level of emissions in 1990, by 2050.  As such it represents the world’s first concrete international program for reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases that progresses beyond the Kyoto Protocol.  Indeed, as a federation of 27 sovereign states, the Roadmap promulgated by the EC must be ratified by all Member States in order to be implemented within their respective borders.  In contrast, the nations of the world, meeting as Conferences of the Parties, most recently in Cancun and Durban have been unable to reach agreement on a successor to the Kyoto Protocol.  Currently, no agreement is anticipated before 2015, which, if successfully concluded, is not expected to enter into force before 2020.  The two nations with the highest emissions of greenhouse gases, China and the U. S., have no policies in place to lower the absolute amount of those emissions.  China emphasizes optimizing its energy intensity while continuing to expand its overall consumption of fossil fuels.  In the U. S., the state of California laudably embarking on an emission reduction program broadly similar to that of the EU’s Roadmap.

The Roadmap sets in motion a market-driven incentive to limit consumption of fossil fuels and promote policies that stimulate the RD&D needed to deploy decarbonizing technologies.  The market incentive originates from its Emissions Trading Scheme, a cap-and-trade mechanism with successively lower annual caps beginning in 2012.  The Roadmap considers in detail the candidate technologies, summarized in this post, that are to provide concrete implementation of various methods to achieve decarbonization of the EU’s energy economy. 

The Roadmap relies heavily on achieving energy efficiency across the energy economy, and on deploying renewable sources of energy to the greatest extent possible.  Nevertheless, use of fossil fuels remains in the picture; the CO₂ greenhouse gas resulting from their use is to be abated by CCS.  The Roadmap, and other assessments by agencies outside of Europe, have pointed out that at this time CCS remains a technology unproven at the industrial level required to abate the CO₂ emissions envisioned. Indeed, the Roadmap calls for a small number of CCS demonstration projects within the EU to create a knowledge and experience base in time for the need anticipated after about 2020.

The atmospheric concentration of CO₂ is increasing inexorably as the nations of the world expand their use of fossil fuels.  This results in ever-higher long-term global average temperatures, which are strongly correlated with extreme weather events that cause major economic and human harms around the world.  We humans have not yet grasped the reality that we must accept the costs of treating CO₂ as a waste product our historical energy economy.  The costs of abatement of emissions and adaptation to the higher global temperature already in place have not been accounted for in the price of energy.  And yet we already endure such costs in the form of the expenses of relief efforts and the high insurance benefits incurred from the damages inflicted by extreme weather events.  It behooves all of humanity rather to seek to minimize future damages by embarking on abatement and adaptation measures as soon as possible.

References

1. Energy Roadmap 2050, European Commission, COM(2011) 885/2; http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy2020/roadmap/doc/com_2011_8852_en.pdf (accessed Jan. 15, 2012); European Commission - Press Release, Energy Roadmap 2050: a secure, competitive and low-carbon energy sector is possible, December 15, 2011; http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy2020/roadmap/doc/com_2011_8852_en.pdf (accessed Jan.16, 2012).

2. Commission Staff Working Document, accompanying document Supporting Early Demonstration of Sustainable Power Generation from Fossil Fuels, Summary Of The Impact Assessment, European Commission, SEC(2008) 48, Jan. 23, 2008; http://ec.europa.eu/energy/climate_actions/doc/2008_co2_comm_ia_summary_en.pdf (accessed Jan. 19, 2012).

3. CO₂ Capture and Storage, Demonstration Projects, European Energy Programme for Recovery, 2010; http://ec.europa.eu/energy/publications/doc/2010_eepr_brochure_co2_en.pdf (accessed Jan.16, 2012).

4. Energy Efficiency Plan 2011, European Commission, March 8, 2011, COM(2011) 109 final; http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2011:0109:FIN:EN:PDF (accessed Feb. 1, 2012).

5. WHITE PAPER, Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area – Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system, European Commission, March 28, 2011, COM(2011);  144 final; http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2011:0144:FIN:EN:PDF (accessed Feb. 1, 2012).

© 2012 Henry Auer

The European Union’s Energy Roadmap for 2050

Summary.  The European Union (EU) has issued an Energy Roadmap for 2050.  It calls on the 27 member nations of the EU to reduce energy consumption by 20%, reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20%, and increase use of renewable energy by 20%, with respect to levels in 1990, all by 2020.  Subsequently, the Roadmap sets the goal of decreasing emissions by 80% to 95% below 1990 levels by 2050.  A major contributing mechanism to attaining these goals is the EU’s energy trading system, an emissions cap-and-trade regime. 

Introduction.  Over the last several decades it has become increasingly clear to climate scientists and policy makers that burning of fossil fuels for energy by humans around the globe emit carbon dioxide, CO2, an important greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere.  CO2 and other greenhouse gases lead to increased global average temperatures.  These have adverse climatic effects on a regional scale, leading variously to aridity and drought, or extreme rain and floods, and sea level rise, among other harmful effects.

The Kyoto Protocol of 1998. In response to this realization the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established guidelines for reducing humanity’s emissions of greenhouse gases, in the 1990’s.  The Kyoto Protocol, developed in 1998, established the goal of reducing the emission of CO2 by at least 5%, depending on the nation, below the level for 1990 by the period 2008 to 2012.  The European Union (EU) members at that time acceded to the Protocol with a reduction minimum of 8%, and began implementing programs intended to achieve this goal.  (Today’s two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, China and the United States, are not covered by the Kyoto Protocol, China because it was considered a developing country and so excluded, and the U. S. because the U. S. Senate voted against accession.) 

The EU has expanded.  The EU has expanded in more recent years, and currently numbers 27 countries, including nations of the former Soviet Union and others, encompassing 500 million people.  As such, climate agreements directed toward the EU cover more countries, with more inhabitants, than at the time of the Kyoto Protocol.  In 2005, the EU began operating its Emissions Trading System (ETS; a “cap-and-trade” regime).

Goals for 2020. The EU recently issued a goal of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below the levels of 1990 by the year 2020, to increase energy production from renewable sources to 20% and to reduce overall energy use by 20%.  In the period from 1990 to 2009, the gross domestic product of the EU, a measure of the total production of goods and services, grew by 40%, while overall emissions were reduced by 16%.

EU’s Energy Efficiency Goals for 2020 Will Not Be Met.  Future projections for efficiency improvements based on detailed global and EU modeling and scenario development, however, do not sustain the historical efficiency recorded through 2009, as seen in the following graphic for projections based both on 2007 and 2009.

Mtoe, millions of metric tonnes of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gas emissions.

Source, European Commission “Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”, issued in 2011;

http://www.delaus.ec.europa.eu/environment/Jill-Duggan-PresentationRoadmap8-3-

2011final.pdf

As noted in the graphic, policies and activities directed toward reducing energy consumption that are currently in practice would achieve only about a 10% reduction compared to no action (“Business as usual”) by 2020.

The European Union’s Roadmap For a Low Carbon Economy in 2050.  The EU issued its “Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050” on March 8, 2011.   It was developed using a detailed atmospheric model assembled within the EU.

A Need to Develop the Roadmap.  The Roadmap points out the failing identified above, and others.  Listing reasons for striving toward a drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, it identifies benefits for energy security, including relief from the EU’s current increasing dependence on foreign sources for fossil fuels and economic risks arising from unpredictable and higher prices for fuels.  It recognizes that at the time of writing, impacts of severe weather increasingly may have negative impacts on economic development; these include more frequent and/or more severe consequences of extreme weather such as storms and floods, hot weather including heat waves and drought, and rising sea levels.  The following graphic shows such effects as a bar chart of the number of events plotted for each calendar year from 1980 to 2009.

Green: meteorological events such as storms; Blue: hydrological events such as floods; and Yellow: Climatological events such as extreme temperature, drought and forest fires.  The Solid Line is a long-term trend line for the yearly totals.  

Source: European Commission “Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”, issued in 2011;

http://www.delaus.ec.europa.eu/environment/Jill-Duggan-PresentationRoadmap8-3-2011final.pdf

Even though the year-by-year counts of events show variability, merely a subjective estimate across the time presented in the graphic shows that the counts for the meteorological events (green bars), the hydrological events (purple bars), and climatological events (yellow bars), each in turn, are about 2 to 3 times more numerous by 2006 to 2009 compared to 1980 to 1983.  These increases correlate with increases in emissions of greenhouse gases over this time frame, and with the corresponding increase in average global temperature as well.  Indeed, two reports in the scientific journal Nature in February 2011 for the first time show direct statistical causality between global warming trends and extreme rain and flooding events.  

Global Temperature Objective.  Furthermore, the Roadmap stands by the objective of restricting global warming to no more than 2°C (3.6°F) above the average global temperature that prevailed prior to the industrial revolution that was agreed to at the Copenhagen (2009) and Cancun (2010) meetings held under the UNFCCC.  Currently the average global temperature has increased by about 0.75°C during that time.  Various climate models predict that further global temperatures may increase anywhere from 1.1°C to 6.4°C beyond today’s level.

Climate Modeling Provides Details on Reductions in Energy Use by Economic Sectors.  The climate model prepared the EU’s energy objectives in the context of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.  In order to keep the globe as a whole on track to limit average temperature rise to 2°C, global emissions of greenhouse gases must decline by about 50% by 2050, which is the recommendation of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  Since it is understood that developing countries may need to continue using energy and emitting greenhouse gases during this period, their contribution to meeting these goals may be reduced.  In recognition of this need the EU in its Roadmap sets forth the stringent restriction for itself of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 95% from the emission level of 1990, by 2050, as recommended by the Cancun Agreement.  Analysis of the sectors of the economy contributing to this goal yields the projections of greenhouse gas emissions shown in the following graphic.

Relative greenhouse gas emissions charted at 5 year intervals by economic sector.  Actual results shown through 2010; projected results thereafter.  The red line shows projected results using policies in place prior to the Roadmap.  The remaining projections include technologies and policies to be implemented under the Roadmap.  Source: European Commission, “A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050” March 8, 2011.  http://ec.europa.eu/clima/documentation/roadmap/docs/com_2011_112_en.pdf

Achieving this objective envisions reductions in emissions of 1% per year until 2020, then 1.5% per year from 2020 to 2030, and finally 2% per year until 2050.  These should provide about 25% reduction in emissions by 2020, about 40% by 2030, and about 60% reduction by 2040.  A main mechanism for achieving the target is the ETS cap-and-trade regime covering industrial sources, and other efficiencies from building improvements, services, agriculture and transport.  The ETS program will provide both the needed clear price signal for CO2 emissions and long-term predictability so that the private sector can lay plans to progress toward these objectives. The 2020 goal also relies on an increase to 20% in the use of renewable energy sources, and on specific energy efficiency programs covering operations and activities throughout the economy.

Details of various technologies and practices that will lead to the significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions required are presented in the Roadmap and in an accompanying publication on energy efficiency.

In an earlier post on this blog Warmgloblog proposed that the earth’s atmospheric concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases was analogous to a bathtub containing CO2. The bathtub had a faucet delivering new CO2 into it, and a drain that removed little or no CO2, leading to a buildup of CO2 in the bathtub.  In a second post, Warmgloblog discussed a commentary by Hoffert in the journal Science stating the critical necessity of acting immediately to eliminate new emissions of greenhouse gases.

Costs and benefits envisioned for the Roadmap.  The EU Roadmap projection identifies investment expenditures required for implementation, as well as benefits resulting from the program.  They provide compensating amounts, as well as non-material benefits, so that major expenditures are not foreseen to be required.

Expenditures projected for investments.  The Table below shows anticipated annual expenditures arising internally within the EU according to the Roadmap, for each year from 2010 to 2050.  The EU’s figures in euros are converted to U. S. dollars at the exchange rate in March 2011.

Item	Billions of €	Billions of US$ (2011)
Buildings and appliances	75	107
Vehicles and transportation infrastructure	150	214
Electricity generation and grid	30	43
Total including other expenses not shown	270	386

The Roadmap points out importantly that delay in starting the program would increase the total required expenditures, and would cut into investment and startup timelines.

Benefits foreseen under the Roadmap.  It is predicted for the interval 2010 to 2050 fuel savings would range from €175 to 320 billion per year (US$ 250 to 457 billion per year).  Consumption of energy would be about 30% below the level of 2005 without adversely affecting energy services.  The EU economy would have a more secure energy base, since oil and gas imports would be about half of today’s needs.  The savings would be about €400 billion (US$ 570 billion) in 2050, equivalent to more than 3% of today’s EU GDP.  In addition, the Roadmap points out that all the money spent as investments stays within the EU rather than being sent abroad to pay for fuel imports.

The Roadmap estimates that up to 1.5 million new jobs will be created by 2020.  In the short term these would arise from the need to renovate and retrofit buildings, provide insulation materials and develop the fixed assets to be used for renewable energy sources.  Long term job prospects under favorable conditions will result from new energy research and technology development, and creation of new ventures focused on energy innovation.

Conclusions.  The EU Roadmap for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to the range of 5% to 20% of the levels that prevailed in 1990 is a very ambitious, but essential, undertaking.  It puts the EU, and the nations of the world, on a path to limiting atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations to a level that climate scientists have agreed should not be exceeded. 

The EU Roadmap is an affirmation of the need to achieve a low-carbon economy that is absent from the goals of other major emitters of greenhouse gases.  China is on a path that is predicted to continue to increase its use of fossil fuels at least through 2035.  As of 2008, coal, the fossil fuel yielding the highest amount of CO2 per unit of energy provided, constituted 71% of the total energy consumed in China.  Thermal power generation capacity, based mostly on coal, is estimated to increase from 650 GW in 2009 to 1,000 GW by 2020.

The U. S. has no national energy policy of any kind in place at this time.  It produces about one quarter of the world’s greenhouse gases, but its emission rate is relatively mature, and is predicted to grow modestly from 2009 to 2035. Three regional consortia of states have been formed within the past four years, and so don’t have the history of working within the Kyoto Protocol.  The (Northeast and Mid-Atlantic) Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative has been operating since 2005.  It has very modest goals and affects only electric power generation.  The Western Climate Initiative was formalized in 2007 and will begin operation in 2012.  It aims to achieve 15% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions across the region’s economy by 2020.  The Midwestern Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord, organized in 2007, has goals that are numerically identical to those set forth in the EU Roadmap.  Currently prospects for new energy legislation in the U. S. Congress establishing a single national policy are bleak.

The nations of the world have to date been incapable of reaching agreement on central aspects of limiting greenhouse gas emissions, as seen for example by the outcomes of the UNFCCC conferences in Copenhagen (2009) and Cancun (2010), although the Cancun meeting did reach important binding agreements.  The EU Roadmap appears to be first significant effort to implement the “deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions … required according to [climate] science, and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change” as set forth in the Cancun Agreement.  The rest of the world, both developed and developing countries, should begin similar efforts as soon as possible.

© 2011 Henry Auer