Americans Believe Global Warming Affects Our Weather

Summary.  The Yale University-George Mason University project on Climate Change Communication issued its latest public opinion survey on Americans’ beliefs about global warming on May 1, 2013.  Almost 60% believe global warming is having an effect on weather in the U. S.  The proportion of Americans believing this has grown about 12% since Spring 2012.  About 80% indicated they personally experienced at least one out of a group of several types of extreme weather or extreme climate in the past year.

The U. S. Congress has not approved any energy program addressing global warming in the last 16 years even though the objective reality that it is occurring, and leading to severe harms to lives, structures and society, is clear.  There are many factors entering into a policymaker’s deliberations on how to vote on global warming legislation, including the sentiments of his/her constituents.  Surveys such as that reviewed here show that generally the American electorate, as represented by the participants in this survey, would support legislative action to mitigate global warming.

 

Introduction.  Warming of the world’s long-term average temperature arises primarily because of the greenhouse effect from humanity’s large, and increasing, emission of carbon dioxide and other gases into the earth’s atmosphere.  This effect began as the industrial revolution, which has relied on burning fossil fuels to provide the energy needed, has transformed our way of life.  Worldwide use of fossil fuels is increasing at an accelerating pace as mankind’s energy needs grow.

The costs associated with global warming are becoming more and more apparent.  In recent decades extremes of weather and climate have become more noticeably severe around the world.  These events, many of which are considered disasters, cause unanticipated physical, economic and social damages.  The monetary costs of these harms are borne only after the fact as emergency responses that seek to restore infrastructure and economic activity, for example, to the state they were in prior to the disaster.

The United States, as early as 1998, declined to join other developed countries in limiting greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol, because the Senate rejected our participation by an overwhelming vote.  Since that time, the Congress has taken up legislation to reduce U. S. emissions as policy, but has failed to enact any law.  Factors that may affect legislators’ voting decisions include opposition from corporate interests that perceive they would be harmed by such policies, popular opinion for or against such policies, and the views of our policymakers concerning America’s competitive position with respect to other economic powers abroad.

Many surveys track American public opinion concerning our perceptions about global warming, on a continuing basis.  The most recent poll from the Yale University-George Mason University collaboration was issued on May 1, 2013.  This post summarizes its representation of the current state of American public opinion on this topic.

The Yale-George Mason collaboration issuedits report as “Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roser-Renouf, C., Feinberg, G., & Howe, P. (2013) Extreme Weather and Climate Change in the American Mind: April 2013. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication” on May 1, 2013.   The survey is based on a survey of 1,045 American adults carried out April 8-15, 2013.    This sample size permitted assigning a margin of error of ±3% at a confidence level of 95%.  A selection of results at the nationwide level is presented below; for breakouts of results for four geographic regions in the U. S. please follow the link above.

·        Almost 6 in 10 Americans believe “global warming is affecting weather in the United States”.

·        Half of Americans, or slightly fewer, believe global warming has made the following recent extreme weather or climatic events “more severe”:

50%: 2012 was the warmest year on record in the U. S.;

49%: Severe drought in the Midwest and Great Plains;

46%: Superstorm Sandy (hurricane-like rains, wind and sea surge affecting the Northeast October 2012); and

42%: Superstorm Nemo (intense, rapid snowfall with high accumulations, February 2013).

For the above events, 21% or fewer respondents believe global warming has “no impact”.

·        64% of Americans believe “over the past several years, … the weather in the U. S. [has] been worse”, an increase from 52% in March 2012 (see the following graphic).

 

 

Source: Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roser-Renouf, C., Feinberg, G., & Howe, P. (2013) Extreme Weather and Climate Change in the American Mind: April 2013. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication. http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/files/Extreme-Weather-Public-Opinion-April-2013.pdf. 

 

Half (51%) of Americans believe that “over the past several years, the weather in [their] local area has been much worse or somewhat worse”.

 

·        85% of Americans “personally experienced” an extreme weather event or natural disaster, from among an extensive list.  The top four  types experienced were extreme high winds (not tornadoes), extreme heat wave, drought, and extreme rainstorm.  In addition, 80% of Americans have close friends or family not living with them who have experienced extreme weather events or natural disasters over the past year.

 

·        37% of Americans were personally harmed “a great deal” or a “moderate amount” by at least one extreme weather event or natural disaster (“harm” includes property damage, financial harm and harm to physical or mental health).  The three highest categories were extreme high winds (not tornadoes), extreme heat wave, and drought.  Almost all categories queried were represented at the same or higher percentages than in Fall 2012 or Spring 2012.  In addition, 36% of Americans have close friends or family not living with them who were harmed “a great deal” or a “moderate amount” by extreme weather events or natural disasters over the past year.

 

Analysis

 

This survey of over 1,000 Americans taken in April 2013 shows that a majority or more believes global warming is contributing to weather and climate events in the U. S.  Almost two-thirds say that the U. S. has experienced worse weather over the past several years.  This proportion is the highest in a rising trend over the past 13 months.

Depending on the event, half or slightly fewer Americans believe that global warming contributed to recent identified severe events.  About four-fifths of Americans personally felt one or more specific severe weather or climate events, and a comparable fraction know others with similar experiences.  More than one-third of Americans experienced damage or harm from these event.

 

The U. S. Congress has never enacted a national energy policy governing greenhouse gas emissions.  As noted in the Introduction, there are many factors impacting the decision-making process that policymakers go through.  Among these is the opinion of the voters who elect them to office.  The Yale-George Mason survey of public opinion summarized here makes clear that one half or more of Americans believe that global warming affects weather in the U. S. and that it has been growing worse in recent years.  An overwhelming majority has experienced one or more severe weather or climate events, and more than one- third have been damaged by them.  Although the survey is silent on the question of whether respondents were registered to vote, all were 18 years or older, and so eligible to do so.  Our policymakers should pay heed to survey results such as these, and recognize that positions they may take in support of new global warming legislation is likely to be supported by their constituents.  (The survey is also silent on the question of translating the opinions of the respondents into political action, if any.)

 

Global warming is objectively real; the measured long-term average worldwide temperature is increasing steadily over the last century.  (This is a chaotic process; a spurt around 1940 was followed by a flatter trend but then resumed, nor is a seemingly flattened trajectory over the last decade unusual.  Regional areas during this period have suffered extremes in weather and climate not experienced in earlier times.  Among factors involved is the very large capacity of the oceans to store heat absorbed from the atmosphere.) 

 

Warmer temperatures are understood to make severe weather events more likely and more intense.  The harms these events cause are compensated by public funds as well as by private insurance; these realities can only be paid for by higher taxes and higher premium rates, respectively.  Furthermore, since the temperature trends, if left unabated, will only lead to more, and more damaging, events.  Any public policies undertaken to mitigate this trend will become harder and require more intense policy efforts, the longer we wait. 

 

In the absence of a legislated national global warming policy in the U. S., some states and regions have embarked on mitigation policies independently of the federal government, and not correlated with one another.  Additionally the executive branch of the U. S. government, under President Obama, has implemented policy by rulemaking to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.  Nevertheless, the most effective path would be a single, uniform policy put in place nationwide by federal legislation.  Policymakers should act as soon as possible to embark on a path of mitigation, secure in the knowledge that the electorate backs their decisions.



 

© 2013 Henry Auer

American Public Opinion Supports Measures to Combat Global Warming

Summary.  A consortium of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication has summarized current American public opinion regarding global warming.  The public is worried about global warming and its effects, both on themselves and on future generations.  Voters across the political spectrum favor policy action to counteract global warming.  There is strong support for developing renewable energy and extending energy efficiency measures.  Among voters who say that election candidates’ positions on global warming would affect their vote, most agree the planet is warming and that human activity is responsible. 

A review of other surveys agrees with these findings.  We conclude that in the U. S., popular support for legislation effectively addressing global warming is strong.  It is clear that the public “has the legislators’ back” in this matter.

 

Introduction.  Implementing new policies intended to counteract worsening global warming, in the U. S. and other democratic countries, necessarily requires the support of the population.  Administrative measures put in place by the U. S. executive branch, as well as new legislative measures enacted in the Congress, both depend on the assent of the people.  Barring such popular approval neither administrative policies nor proposed legislation would become reality, since there have always been many powerful corporate and economic interests dedicated to preserving the status quo.

Public opinion on various aspects of the global warming issue has been the focus of an ongoing series of surveys carried out by a consortium of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, involving Emily Vraga, Connie Roser-Renouf, Anthony Leiserowitz and Edward Maibach, among others.  Their most recent survey entitled “Climate Change in the American Mind”, was released in September 2012 (after the summer heat wave and drought in the Midwest, and an unusually intense season of forest wildfires in the West, but before the U. S. presidential election and before Hurricane Sandy struck the east coast).  This most recent survey worked with 839 subjects; their earlier surveys involved variously 774-832 subjects.

This post presents a selection of results from the most recent survey concerning the voting public’s attitudes toward global warming, including a breakdown by political affiliation.  These are categorized as Democrats (more liberal), Republicans (more conservative), and Independents (frequently called Unaffiliated by others).  This selection was released on Jan. 15, 2013 by Anthony Leiserowitz.

Survey Results.

There is strong concern among American voters about the effects of global warming.  Majorities of Democrats and Independents were worried about effects on them and succeeding generations.

Taking medium-scale or large-scale measures to reduce global warming is broadly supported, amounting to 69%, with 88% of Democrats and 78% of Independents in agreement.  Republicans in the past have been characterized as being more doubtful or skeptical concerning global warming and its effects.  Yet in this survey a majority of Republicans favor at least some level of effort to counteract global warming.

Various policies aimed at developing renewable energy sources are supported by an overwhelming majority of voters of all three affiliation groups. Such policies include eliminating current subsidies to the fossil fuel industry (many of which have been in place for almost 100 years).  Across all three groups, strong majorities favor additional research on developing renewable energy sources.

The public understands that carbon dioxide is a major greenhouse gas accumulating in the atmosphere.  Voters in the survey support regulating carbon dioxide emission (69%), including imposing a carbon tax.  There were slightly differing degrees of support for the tax depending on the use to which the proceeds would be applied; of the alternatives presented the most strongly supported were using the proceeds for job creation in renewable energy and energy efficiency, and promoting development of energy sources that minimize greenhouse gas emission.

93% of Democrats, 75% of Independents and 52% of Republicans were in agreement that global warming should be at least a medium priority for the President and Congress.  In the 6 months since the previous survey, these percentages for Democrats and Independents were 7-9% higher, while the percent for Republicans remained unchanged.

58% of registered voters say that the presidential candidates’ positions on global warming would be a factor in deciding how they would vote (note that this survey dates from before the U. S. presidential election).  Within this group, 83% agree that the temperature of the planet is warming, and 65% affirm that human activity is responsible for this warming. 

 
Analysis

The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases continues to rise inexorably year by year, as humanity across the globe relentlessly burns more fossil fuels to satisfy its energy demands.  Over the past decade, more, and more severe, climate and weather events negatively impacting human life and livelihood have occurred.  These frequently lead to loss of life, major damage to property and infrastructure, and loss of economic activity, all of which create a need for financial relief that is frequently borne by taxpayers.  These events are associated in the minds of the public with the idea that increased greenhouse gases are causing the increased extent of global warming that we are experiencing.

The Yale/George Mason survey shows that the voting public supports governmental action to help abate the worsening of global warming.  The public favors eliminating subsidies for the fossil fuel industry, and government-sponsored development of renewable energy sources.  American people, as represented by the survey, support a carbon tax whose proceeds would be applied to several objectives including job creation in renewable energy and energy efficiency, and development of innovations in renewable energy.

The survey results developed by the Yale/George Mason consortium are corroborated in other recent public opinion surveys on global warming.  In a review of several surveys ClimateNexus reports similar results as of Dec. 18, 2012.  Thus they were able to report that Hurricane Sandy, the record melting of Arctic Sea ice, and other North American weather patterns already mentioned have reinforced in the public mind that global warming is happening “right here, right now”.  Global warming acted to make such disasters and extremes worse than they would otherwise have been.  The harms to Americans are understood by the public.

In another analysis, Krosnick and MacInnis (Daedalus, Winter 2013, Vol. 142, pp. 26-39; (doi:10.1162/DAED_a_00183) ) similarly find the American public understands the increase in global warming, its origins from human activity, and the need to embark on policies to mitigate warming.  They conclude that the failure to enact legislation combating continued warming cannot be ascribed to a lack of popular support.

Policymakers should be heartened by the results of surveys such as those summarized here.  It is clear that the public “has the legislators’ backs”.  In view of the strong scientific basis underlying our understanding of global warming and its worsening trends, it is highly necessary to embark on measures to abate the process as soon as possible, and as intensively as possible.  Public opinion supports enacting such measures.

© 2013 Henry Auer