Secretary Kerry’s Global Warming Initiative

Summary.  U. S. Secretary of State John Kerry visited China and Indonesia in
February 2014 to promote international support for combating global warming.  He is making this issue a major theme of his tenure in office.  In China he discussed upcoming negotiations on a new worldwide climate treaty with his hosts.  In Indonesia he spoke on the critical nature of the problem of worsening global warming, and on the importance of reaching international accord to limit further emissions.  He is personally committed to making global warming be a central theme in U. S. diplomatic efforts.

Recent U. N.-sponsored meetings to negotiate a treaty to replace the expired Kyoto Protocol have stalled on the issue (among others) that is the same as the  one that arose originally when the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated: a split between already industrialized countries and developing countries based on the contention by the latter group that mature countries have had a century of fossil fuel use, which leads to greenhouse gas emissions, to power their industrialization.  They feel they too should be allowed unfettered opportunity to do the same.  But in the time since Kyoto, developing countries have expanded so rapidly that emissions from this group are now a major contributor to continued global warming.

A new treaty should treat all nations equally, since global warming is indeed a single, worldwide crisis, not a differentiated one.  All nations should unite behind Secretary Kerry’s efforts, and those of others, to reach agreement on substantive and substantial approaches to constrain the buildup of greenhouse gases and limit further warming of the planet.

 

Introduction: The Kyoto Protocol.  In 1997 the members of the United Nations agreed to the Kyoto Protocol (KP) to reduce emission rates of greenhouse gases (GHGs).  KP excused developing countries from its constraints; only the already industrialized nations were to be bound by its terms.  For this and other reasons the U. S. Senate rejected KP.  The treaty came into force in 2005 and expired in 2012.  Since then members of the U. N. have been unable to agree on a new treaty to take effect on expiration of KP.  The effort currently under way is to agree to a new treaty by 2015 and have it take effect by 2020.

U. S. Secretary of State John Kerry is making the achievement of an international agreement, as well as other multilateral understandings, to limit further global warming a major policy goal of his tenure.  He hopes to lead the world effort to conclude the new treaty to replace the expired KP reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and to expand its terms and coverage.  Carbon dioxide (CO₂), a principal GHG, is emitted when we burn fossil fuels for energy.

Mr. Kerry has made mitigation of global warming a primary effort of the State Department.  In the U. S., President Obama’s executive actions to reduce emission rates have enhanced the credibility of the U. S. among the international community as it negotiates the new agreement.

In Secretary Kerry’s speech in Indonesia on Feb. 16, 2014 he pointed out that both President Obama and he consider global warming to be an “urgent” challenge that the world needs to address.  Indonesia’s emissions of GHGs from burning fossil fuels are rising dramatically, as is true for practically all developing countries.  Annual emission rates from China, India, South Korea, Indonesia and Mexico all have similar increases over the last 22 years (see Analysis below); China is now by far the country with the highest annual emissions rate of all countries and regions .  Indonesia ranks third in the world in overall emission rate behind China and the U. S.  An additional contributor to Indonesia’s emissions rate is deforestation by burning to clear land for agricultural use.  In contrast, industrialized countries have relatively level annual emission rates with time. 

Secretary Kerry summarized the conclusion of 97% of climate scientists around the globe that this problem is arising because of manmade increases in atmospheric GHG levels.  These act to trap heat in the earth system, leading to extremes of heat and drought, heavy precipitation and flooding, and rising sea levels, all of which wreak havoc on affected human societies and economic activities.

The Secretary intends to continue stressing the dangers of global warming and the economic opportunities in addressing it.  He emphasized that around the world political and financial institutions “need to stop providing incentives for the use of energy sources like coal and oil. Instead, we have to make the most of the innovative energy technology that entrepreneurs are developing all over the world.”  He pointed out that the time remaining for action is dwindling. 

He stated the “United States is prepared to take the lead in bringing other nations to the table. And this is something that President Obama is deeply committed to. And as Secretary of State, I am personally committed to [having global warming be central] in all of our diplomatic efforts.”

Secretary Kerry’s Visit in China.  Prior to visiting Indonesia Secretary Kerry conferred on global warming with counterparts in China on Feb. 15, 2014.  The meeting with Chinese officials resulted in pledges to promote a successful conclusion to the international climate negotiation of 2015.

China is setting up market based (i. e., cap-and-trade) mechanisms in several regions to reduce GHG emission rates, in contrast to the U. S. which has never enacted such policy at the national level.  The recent worsening of urban air pollution in many Chinese cities has also led authorities to begin programs to reduce emissions, especially particulates and smog precursors arising from cars and coal-fired electricity plants; such efforts also lower GHG emissions.  China initiated a US$250 billion program that includes a ban on cars that contribute excessively to pollution and reduces the use of coal in power generation.

Mr. Kerry was instrumental in putting together a bilateral initiative with China to help that nation reduce its emissions of hydrofluorocarbons.  These compounds are used in refrigeration and are released by leakage and when refrigeration units are retired from service.  They are extremely potent GHGs, possessing up to 12,000 times the heat trapping power,  molecule by molecule, as CO₂.  They are entirely manmade, so they were not present in the atmosphere before the industrial revolution. 

 

Analysis

 

Updating the Kyoto Protocol.  It is highly significant that Secretary Kerry and President Obama are actively pursuing policies that address worsening global warming.  The annual U. N. meetings in recent years, convened to develop a global framework to follow the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol, have failed to reach agreement (although certain building blocks have been agreed to).  Much of the continued difficulty remains the same as the differences that led to exclusion of developing countries from being bound by KP.  These nations felt that, in contrast to their third world status, the industrialized countries of the developed world had already attained an advanced standard of living as a result of having used fossil fuel-derived energy for a century.  The developing nations have felt that they should be able to follow the same path for their economic growth, including use of fossil fuels.  Objection to this reasoning was one of the factors cited when the U. S. Senate denied ratification of KP.

Rapid Growth of Emissions from Developing Countries.  It is easily seen why developing countries wanted to remain unfettered by KP in the late 1990’s; their goals of increasing development and economic expansion have come to fruition in dramatic fashion since then.  In “Trends in Global CO2 Emissions– 2013 Report” issued by the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the European Commission information appears for A) per capita CO₂ emission rate per year in tonnes (metric ton; about 1.1 English ton) tracked from 1990 to 2012; B) change in per person emission rate over the 22 year interval, %; C) absolute change in emission rate over the same time period , %; and D) % change in population over the same time period.  Selected results are tabulated below:

Nation/ Region	A) Per capita CO2 emission rate per year	B) Change in per person emission rate, %	C) Absolute change in emission rate, %	D) Change in population, %
Examples of developing countries, not governed by KP
China	increased from 2.1 to 7.1	233	203	18
India	increased from 0.8 to 1.6	110	198	42
Examples of industrialized countries, negotiated to be covered under KP
U. S.	decreased from (19.6-20.6) to 16.4	-17	4	25
European Union	decreased from 9.1 to 7.4	-19	14	7

This selection shows how dramatically emissions in developing countries have risen from 1990 to 2012 in both per person use [ A) ] and overall emissions [ C) ]; most of this originated from burning coal.  In contrast, over the same period for industrialized countries both per person and overall emissions fell modestly from already very high levels.  Also, the data show that in 1990 the per capita rates of CO₂ emissions per year for the industrialized countries were 5-10 times higher than the rates for developing countries.  But by 2012 the rates for the developing countries were rapidly closing that difference.  For example, the per capita rates for the European Union and China in 2012 were almost the same.  This selection shows the strong growth in CO₂ emissions from the largest developing countries.  Absolute CO₂ emissions by China became the highest of any country 4-5 years ago.

Global warming is indeed just that – warming of the climate assessed by averaging temperature measurements over the entire globe over long time periods (years to decades).  Historically the increase in the worldwide average temperature follows the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ and other GHGs such as methane (natural gas), and the refrigerants mentioned above.  Projections of future global temperature increase likewise track scenarios for future emissions of GHGs. 

CO₂, a principal GHG, remains in the atmosphere for centuries or longer, once emitted.  There is no technology currently known that removes CO₂ from air, so humanity is cementing into place the worldwide warming climate we now experience.  We cannot go back to an earlier, lower global average temperature or more benign climate.  The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, issued September 2013, in its Summary for Policymakers , additionally shows other indicators of warming, including continued sea level rise, increase in overall heat contained in the world’s oceans, and loss of land-based snow and ice cover.  Increased occurrence of damaging extreme weather events, consistent with behavior expected from global warming, include more, and more violent, storms with more precipitation, flooding, higher temperatures and heat waves, droughts, forest wildfires, and stronger ocean storm surges.

Secretary Kerry’s efforts to implement international and multilateral climate agreements deserve full support.  The urgency of reaching meaningful, significant reductions in further emissions of GHGs as soon as possible is clear.  The ultimate goal has to be approaching near zero rates of annual worldwide emissions, in order to stabilize the atmospheric GHG level, and the concomitant rise in global temperature, to as small a further increase as possible above their present levels.

This will require industrialized countries (whose emission rates are already falling, albeit from high starting values) to continue on their paths of lowering emissions toward zero.  It will further require developing countries to accept the present climatic status of the world rather than to dwell on past history; in other words developing countries need to install renewable energy sources rather than fossil fuel-powered sources as they expand their energy economies.  Both groups of nations will need to band together to help the most vulnerable nations adapt to continued global warming and to help them develop renewable energy sources for their development.

American diplomacy, led by Secretary Kerry and President Obama, conducted energetically and with conviction, should contribute meaningfully to achieving a substantive worldwide agreement that supplants KP. It would start our world on a path to reduced GHG emissions and the smallest future increase in warming attainable.

 
© 2014 Henry Auer

The Faithful Oppose Global Warming: Stewardship of God’s Creation

Summary: The sacred writings of Judaism, Christianity and Islam include fundamental revelations that God (Allah) placed humanity on earth as part of creation.  God’s (Allah’s) creation is for the benefit of humanity, leading to our prospering and growth.  In turn, it is incumbent on humanity to be stewards of God’s (Allah’s) creation so that it can continue to support our prosperity and that of future generations, our progeny.

Man-made global warming and its worsening pace threaten the ability of the created world that we inhabit to sustain the diversity of life, including its human population, today and in the future.  Worsening global warming brings more, and more intense, extremes of weather and climate with their attendant harms.  The faithful regard stewardship of God’s (Allah’s) creation as including the imperative to mitigate worsening global warming, and to implement adaptive projects to help minimize its harmful effects.

Global warming has been accelerating since the industrial revolution, and especially since about 1950.  The global climate science community, numbering at least 1,000, agrees virtually unanimously that the warming is caused mainly by human activity.  This includes burning fossil fuels for energy and cement manufacture, destruction of forest reservoirs of the Earth’s carbon, and emission of synthetic chemicals with exceptionally high ability on a molecule-for-molecule basis to act as greenhouse gases.

Global warming has harmful consequences for humanity.  Various regions of land are experiencing warmer climates, leading to heat waves and drought in some regions, and increased occurrence of extreme storms with flooding in others.  Droughts cause worsening of wildfire patterns around the globe.  Droughts and floods lead to crop failures which stress the global food supply.  Hotter temperatures melt mountain glaciers and ice sheets, and cause water in the oceans to expand, both of which contribute to sea level rise.  These climatic harms are projected to continue for centuries as warming continues unabated.  They cause physical damage and socioeconomic disruption worldwide. 

Stewardship of Creation.  Among the many reasons to combat the worsening of global warming and the harms it causes is the offense it represents to environmental morality.  It inspires an ethical response among the faithful.  An example of such a reaction was the Climate Stewardship Summit held in Hartford, CT November 7, 2013, sponsored by the Interreligious Eco-Justice Network.  The attendance at this conference was ecumenical, including speakers and attendees from the Jewish, Catholic, Protestant, and Islamic faiths.

Throughout the day’s proceedings, speakers and those participants offering comments emphasized religious and moral foundations for their concerns about the harms brought about by global warming. 

In Judeo-Christian scriptures we are enjoined to care for our environment in order to prosper ( “And God said to them, ‘Be fruitful and multiply and fill the earth and subdue it, and have dominion over the fish of the sea and over the birds of the heavens and over every living thing that moves on the earth.’” Genesis 1:28).  Here, “subduing” and “dominion” are interpreted not in an exploitative way, but as representing a regime providing continuing sustenance and benefit to the earth’s human population.  An aspect of Jewish ethics focuses on “repair of the world”, i.e., preserving and maintaining its integrity to promote humanity’s wellbeing.  Both these notions enshrine the obligation of humanity to be stewards of the earth that we inhabit.  Stewardship necessarily incorporates our concern, as the current inhabitants of the world, that our actions ensure passing on a healthy planet to both our near-term progeny and those in centuries to come.

The Islamic position concerning global warming is likewise rooted in the notion of stewardship of Allah’s creation.  For example, Imam Ebraima Kebba Saidy of the Islamic Council of Norway writes, based on Q. 2:30-33, that “Man has thus been placed on earth to be the representative of Allah/God Almighty and as such has been endowed with knowledge even above that of the angels.  Man with that knowledge is commanded to fear Allah, his Creator and the Creator of the universe.”   Imam Saidy concludes “Man therefore is a representative of Allah/God Almighty. Man is a steward and a trustee entrusted with the responsibility to establish and maintain justice and peace on earth (Q. 33:72). Man … must serve his Creator by taking good care of [Creation] which includes himself, other live forms and the environment. Man’s failure to properly observe this function of trusteeship could very well lead to dire consequences in this life and the Hereafter….Justice must therefore be the watchword [including] indeed climate justice.”

We see that all three faiths, Judaism, Christianity and Islam, regard the world we live in as God’s (Allah’s) creation, bestowed on humanity as the source of our existence and thriving.  The holy writings of these faiths impose on us the imperative of conserving the beneficial properties of the earth that contribute to humanity’s sustenance and prosperity.  They make clear that abuse of the earth’s resources counteracts God’s (Allah’s) wishes while at the same time jeopardizing humanity’s continued existence. 

Conclusion.  Man-made global warming, arising from burning fossil fuels and other human activities, as viewed by people of faith, contravenes God’s (Allah’s) wishes, i.e. the directive to be effective stewards of creation.  From the concepts developed here communities of the faithful draw inspiration for strong opposition to continued use of fossil fuels for energy, especially the continued expansion in their use.  Burning fossil fuels emits a principal greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere.  Additional human activities contributing to the worsening of global warming include emission of additional man-made gaseous chemicals that are greenhouse gases , many of which are hundreds to thousands of times more potent than is carbon dioxide; and deliberate changes in land use around the world that destroy forests, releasing more atmospheric carbon dioxide in the process.

In this view, the faithful should embark on activities that combat global warming both locally and at the national level.  Stewardship of our world with respect to global warming involves two general areas: mitigation of the worsening of increased temperature and adaptation to its harmful effects already under way.  Emissions of greenhouse gases have already warmed the earth’s atmosphere, leading to an increase in destructive extreme climate and weather events.  Because most greenhouse gases remain indefinitely in the atmosphere for centuries or longer, mitigation efforts can never return the world to an earlier time of less warming and less severe climatic effects; the best we can achieve is to minimize emission rates in order to keep the further temperature increase as small as possible.  This can only be achieved by reducing, on a global level, further emission rates of greenhouse gases to close to zero.  Thus communities of the faithful should work to reduce fossil fuel use and to change other behaviors in order to lower emission rates.

Adaptation acknowledges that the earth’s climate has already changed for the worse, bringing with it damaging climatic events.  Communities of faith should recognize this fact by supporting projects that are intended to protect communities and regions from further extreme events, should they occur.

Stewardship of God’s (Allah’s) creation by the faithful plays an important role in bringing about the changes in policy and practice needed to avert major harms from worsening global warming.

 

© 2014 Henry Auer