Urgently Needed: Connecticut Legislation to Mitigate Global Warming/Climate Change

Summary: Six Assessment Reports on the global climate have been issued since 1990 by the IPCC.  The Fourth U.S. Climate Assessment was issued in 2017-2018.  These and other reports have warned, with increasing urgency up to the present, that the continued, unabated increases in emission rates of man-made greenhouse gases relative to values before the industrial revolution have led to corresponding increases in global average temperature.  These higher temperatures lead globally to increasingly extreme weather and climate events that cause physical and socioeconomic harms and damages to the world we live in. 

Two model images are presented that drive home the need, stated clearly in the reports, aggressively to reduce annual emission rates so that the total man-made GHG concentration in the atmosphere is kept as low as possible.

Connecticut is among many U. S. states developing policies to bring about emission reductions.  Important laws are summarized; then it is urged to resurrect proposals of the 2021 legislative session that were not successfully enacted, and additional bills are proposed for consideration.  As in the entire world, and in the absence of nationwide U.S. climate policies, Connecticut should act with ambition to pass substantive climate legislation to minimize further emissions.

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Introduction: We need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission rates (emissions per year) to near zero in the near future.  The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued six Assessment Reports (ARs) on the climate since 1990.  From the First AR to the present these have urged emission rate reductions, where the emissions refer to excess GHGs, especially carbon dioxide (CO₂), that arise from human activity.

In 2015 the nations of the U.N. reached consensus on the Paris Agreement, by which all 196 nations agreed to limit their emissions so as effectively to limit the increase in the global average temperature since before the industrial revolution to well below 2.0°C (3.6°F), preferably to 1.5°C (2.7°F). 

The U.S. National Climate Assessments (NCAs) appear every four years, a collaborative effort involving thirteen federal agencies.  The Fourth NCA was released over 2017-2018. Its Executive Summary includes the following statements.

Global average temperatures have risen 1.8°F (1.0°C) over 1901-2016.

 “With significant reductions in the emissions of [GHGs], the global … temperature rise could be limited to 3.6°F (2°C) or less. Without major reductions … the increase … relative to preindustrial times could reach 9°F (5°C) or more by the end of this century.”

“Stabilizing global mean temperature to less than 3.6°F (2°C) above preindustrial levels requires substantial reductions in net global CO₂ emissions prior to 2040 relative to present-day values and likely requires net emissions to become zero or possibly … [removal from the atmosphere] later in the century.” (Emphasis added).

The world’s policymakers have had ample time to deploy GHG reduction technologies in orderly fashion had they heeded climate scientists’ warnings beginning with the IPCC First AR (1990).  These urgings have been ignored or rejected in the three decades since, with the result that the future weather and climate extremes that scientists had warned of at the outset have actually come to pass ferociously in recent years.   

The IPCC released its Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2018. The goal of limiting warming to 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels, proposed in its earlier ARs, has been modified in the Special Report: the more stringent limit, 1.5°C, would lead to less severe weather and climate consequences.  Clearly, extensive climate action has to be undertaken urgently from this time onward, to make up for the revised lower limit and the time lost to inaction in past decades.

The nature of the climate crisis presently facing the world is illustrated in the following two graphics.  First, the IPCC Special Report presents a modeled comparison of a rapid (teal lines) vs moderate (gray lines) reduction in the rate of emission of carbon dioxide (CO₂) (amount emitted per year) (Panel b, below) and the accumulated total amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere (Panel c) for the rapid (teal lines) vs moderate (gray lines) reductions.

Both panels give historical data for emissions of carbon dioxide from 1970 to 2020 and the hypothetical cases of moderate vs rapid reductions in rate of emission from 2020 to 2100.  In panel b) the moderate reduction in emission rate (gray line) reaches zero emissions in 2055 while the rapid rate of reduction (teal line) reaches zero in 2040, a far more ambitious and intense effort.  The area of the triangle represents the carbon dioxide emissions that are eliminated by adopting the rapid rate. Panel c) shows the effect of the rapid emission rate of panel b) on the accumulated total carbon dioxide, giving a lower total accumulation (teal line) for the rapid emission case.   Source: IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers. In: Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, V. Masson-Delmotte, and coworkers (eds.). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15_SPM_High_Res.pdf

 

The lower amount of accumulated CO₂ resulting from rapid emissions reductions (panel c)) translates to a lower global average temperature, such as 1.5°C, and an earlier attainment of that temperature plateau, than the moderate case.

Second, the faster that emission rates are reduced toward zero, the lower will be the total accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere.  The cartoon below of two cars traveling down the GHG highway captures this message.

Source: Henry E. Auer

Two cars travel down the GHG Highway at the same speed.  Each mile traveled represents a certain increase in the total amount of accumulated GHGs.  Each car applies brakes at the same point. On the red trip the brakes are applied gently (a metaphor for moderate GHG mitigation measures), so the car travels further before reaching a stop (a metaphor for ceasing further GHG emissions), leading to more GHG highway miles traveled (a metaphor for higher amounts of GHGs accumulating in the atmosphere).  On the green trip the brakes are applied forcefully (a metaphor for intensive, aggressive mitigation measures), so the car travels only a short distance further down the highway before stopping. This leads to less GHG highway miles traveled (a metaphor for lower amounts of GHGs accumulating in the atmosphere). This yields a lower global average temperature.

Reducing GHG emissions to near zero. U.S. federal and international agencies have consistently stated the need for urgent, substantive and effective action to minimize the effects of man-made global warming/climate change.  We must all act internationally, at the national level, at the state and provincial level, and locally; global warming originates across our planet and must be addressed by all nations and citizens of the world in concert. 

Annual GHG emission rates have to be reduced to near zero within two decades, or at best by midcentury, to minimize more frequent and intense extreme weather and climate events.  In the U.S. some recent administrations have sought mitigation policies in recent years, but most of these efforts have been rejected or successfully blocked in court.  The current Biden administration is advancing its legislative and administrative objectives to decarbonize.

In the absence of effective federal policies, some states and even municipalities have established their own mitigation policies with specific goals. Examples include California, New Jersey and Washington, D.C., among others.

Connecticut’s global warming policies. Connecticut has enacted policies to promote decarbonization of its energy economy.  Selections include

Public Act No. 08-98, AN ACT CONCERNING CONNECTICUT GLOBAL WARMING SOLUTIONS, which states in part that, by January 2020 GHG emissions had to be reduced by 10% below 1990 levels; as amended by Public Act No. 18-82, AN ACT CONCERNING CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING AND RESILIENCY, by January 2030 emissions have to be reduced by 45% below 2001 levels; and by January 2050 they have to reduced by 80% below 2001 levels.

Public Act No. 18-50, AN ACT CONCERNING CONNECTICUT'S ENERGY FUTURE, in part, establishes an annual schedule for Connecticut’s electric companies that their electricity reach the target of at least 40% renewable energy by 2030. It also provided for new compensation choices for residential and business owners of solar energy sources.

Public Act No. 19-71, AN ACT CONCERNING THE PROCUREMENT OF ENERGY DERIVED FROM OFFSHORE WIND, authorizes soliciting proposals for up to 2000 MW of offshore wind generation sources by December 31, 2030.

Suggested Climate Legislation for the 2022 CGA Session.  This post has stressed the importance of reducing GHG emissions aggressively and substantively.  The list below gives a selection of relevant bills from the 2021 session that were not enacted, yet which would contribute significantly to decarbonizing Connecticut’s energy economy.  They should be reintroduced and given urgent consideration for enactment in the 2022 session convening on February 9.

SB 884        AN ACT REDUCING TRANSPORTATION-RELATED CARBON EMISSIONS. Joint Favorable Report.  This bill implements the Transportation Climate Initiative. 

HB 5641& SB 135     AN ACT CONCERNING THE ESTABLISHMENT OF HIGH-PERFORMANCE GREEN BUILDING STANDARDS FOR VOLUNTARY ADOPTION BY MUNICIPALITIES.  This important proposed legislation would yield a stretch code that a municipality may adopt.  Its provisions presumably would anticipate features that would become part of the Connecticut state building code in future years.  

SB 127        AN ACT CONCERNING THE SALE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE STATE. Joint Favorable Report.  This bill would promote energy efficiency in the transportation sector by expanding purchase options.  

SB 725        AN ACT INCENTIVIZING THE USE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES. This bill would promote energy efficiency in the transportation sector.

SB 882        AN ACT CONCERNING CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND HOME ENERGY AFFORDABILITY.  Joint Favorable Report.

HB 5246        AN ACT RAISING THE RESIDENTIAL SOLAR INVESTMENT PROGRAM CAP.

HB 5247        AN ACT ELIMINATING THE VIRTUAL NET METERING CAP.

HB 5619        AN ACT CONCERNING THE TEACHING OF CLIMATE CHANGE INSTRUCTION IN PUBLIC SCHOOLS. (Please see Science Magazine for a review of the report: “Miseducation: How Climate Change is Taught in America”;  Science • 16 Dec 2021 • Vol 374, Issue 6574 • p. 1451 • DOI: 10.1126/science.abl9313)

HB 5640        AN ACT CONCERNING PREWIRING FOR SOLAR POWER AND ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGING STATIONS FOR ALL NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION.          

 Additionally, the following new legislative concepts are proposed.

Installations of solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays should be maximized on state properties, such as rooftops and highway rights of way.  Agriculture in the state can be protected while still installing PV arrays with agrivoltaics.

State vehicle fleets should be rapidly replaced with electric or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.  The state should provide incentives to replace school buses with electric vehicles; the financial burden can be eased by leasing rather than purchasing.  Heavy duty vehicles should likewise be replaced.  Licensing for taxi and ride-hailing fleets should require vehicles be only electric.

Conclusion.  Accelerating growth of man-made GHG emissions worldwide is leading to increasing physical and socio-economic harms and damages worldwide.  It is critical to minimize further emissions starting right away.  Connecticut can do its part in this effort by enacting aggressive legislation, both by resurrecting previous legislative proposals and enacting new concepts such as suggested here.  The global climate hazard requires worldwide action, including ambitious action by Connecticut.

 © 2021 Henry E. Auer

We Can No Longer Delay Minimizing Global Warming/Climate Change

Summary: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has issued six Assessment Reports over the past three decades.  This blog has presented three posts recently tabulating the effects of warming and the scientific need for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that the Reports presented.  The posts focus on the unabated increase in man-made carbon dioxide emissions, the consequent increase in global average temperature, and the inexorable increase in sea level.  For each of these topics, from the beginning the Reports have declared the necessity of minimizing GHG emissions in order to avoid the worst harms and damages from continued warming.  Their warnings have become more urgent, and have been expressed with increasingly unambiguous certainty, as the series of Reports has been issued.

Harms and damages that were only hypothetical in the early Reports have now become commonplace, as sea levels have continued rising; droughts, famine and wildfires have ensued; and more intense, violent climate and weather events have unfolded with freakish intensity.  Even so, policymakers and commercial interests in the private realm have largely ignored these warnings throughout the three decades.  Now is the time energetically to combat further warming globally to make up for three decades of inaction, and to mitigate worsening climate change.  We have no alternative.

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Introduction – The Urgent Need to Minimize Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions.  In three recent posts this blog has summarized aspects of the work of climate scientists over the last 30 years.  The first post is titled “What,Again? Greenhouse Gases Accumulate in the Atmosphere”, the second is “What, Again? Global Warming Continues Unabated”, and the third is “What, Again? Sea Level Will Continue Rising for Centuries”.

Each post summarizes the aspect of climate science reflected in its title, as presented by the U. N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its series of six Assessment Reports (ARs) issued over the past 31 years up to the (first of three volumes of) the Sixth AR, which appeared in August 2021. Each post included a tabulation of the significant findings, and the suggested future policies, related to the title of the post, as found in each AR.  Significantly, the need to reduce GHG emissions was already expressed in the first AR in 1990 and has been reinforced in each report up to the present time in the Sixth AR.  What has changed is that the strength of the climate science underpinning those conclusions has increased dramatically over time.  The capabilities of gathering data and using more powerful computers to analyze them, and to develop more refined, detailed climate models, have all increased remarkably.

Sadly, the world’s policymakers and industries have not heeded these warnings, but have continued policies and practices leading to unabated, indeed increasing, GHGs emissions throughout these three decades, as shown in the graphic below.

 

 

Direct measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (smoothed over the 12 months of a year) taken atop the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii beginning in 1958.  The base level prior to the Industrial Revolution is 280 ppm.  Ppm, parts of carbon dioxide in 1 million parts of air. The vertical lines represent the dates of issue of the respective Assessment Reports, and the date of the U. N. Paris Climate Agreement (2015).    Adapted from the carbon dioxide data referenced in the URL at the bottom of the image.

 

In spite of the persistent urgings of the six teams of climate scientists writing the six ARs over three decades, and the agreement reached in Paris among virtually all GHG-emitting nations to begin reducing their emissions, the data in the graphic show no indication of slowing emission rates up to the present time.

Accumulated GHGs are directly responsible for increasing global temperatures.  Many man-made GHGs, including the extra carbon dioxide emitted by burning fossil fuels, are “long-lived” GHGs.  Once emitted into the atmosphere they remain there for hundreds or thousands of years without being destroyed or taken up by the earth system, so that they accumulate to ever higher levels with each passing year.  (A minor fraction of carbon dioxide is absorbed by photosynthesis and by dissolving into oceans and lakes.)  That is why the image above shows that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere keep increasing.  The increase from one year to the next represents the net amount added to the atmosphere during that year.  Indeed, the carbon dioxide level increased from about 353 ppm at the time of the First AR to about 416 ppm at the Sixth AR, the present.

Greenhouse gases are called that because they retain a portion of the sun’s energy reaching the earth as heat energy, instead of having that heat be radiated from earth back into outer space.  This leads the temperature of the earth system to increase. The earth system mimics glass greenhouses in retaining heat.  Their glass enclosure captures outgoing heat energy, so that excess heat accumulates inside the greenhouse.  The interiors of cars in the summer sun heat up for the same reason.  Climate modeling of future warming, summarized in recent ARs, shows that the extent of incremental heating of the earth system depends on excess GHGs in the atmosphere (including excess carbon dioxide from fossil fuels) in almost a straight-line fashion.

It is critical to reduce the net annual GHG emission rate to near zero by midcentury, and optimally sooner.  The IPCC released “Global warming of 1.5°C [2.7°F]. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, V. Masson-Delmotte, and coworkers (eds.)” in 2018.

As emphasized above, the world’s policymakers had ample time to implement GHG reduction technologies in orderly fashion had they heeded climate scientists’ warnings beginning with the First AR.  These urgings have been ignored or rejected in the three decades since, with the result that future weather and climate extremes that scientists warned of at the outset have actually come to pass ferociously in recent years.  In addition, the goal of limiting warming to 2.0°C [3.6°F] above pre-industrial levels, proposed in earlier reports, has been replaced in the Special Report by a more stringent limit, 1.5°C.  Climate action has to be undertaken urgently from this time onward, to make up for the lower revised limit and the time lost in past decades. The IPCC Special Report lays out this case in great detail. 

Conclusion.  Climate scientists have been characterizing the harms and damages they expected from continued unabated burning of fossil fuels, and from other GHG sources, for more than three decades.  Throughout that period policymakers have not acted meaningfully on the scientists’ urgings to reduce use of fossil fuels, nor to reduce other GHG sources.  And now, in recent years those harms and damages are coming to pass around the globe with increasing frequency and severity.

This post presents the urgent, critical case that ambitious, aggressive, effective actions need to be taken starting now to reduce annual GHG emission rates toward zero by midcentury or preferably earlier.  Policymakers can no longer ignore the inexorable action of the physical laws governing global warming.  Industries providing fossil fuels and those using that energy seek to preserve their business models indefinitely.  This is now clearly untenable.  They must change the way they do business or get out of the way.  We all must act internationally, at the national level, at the state and provincial level, and locally; global warming originates across our planet and must be addressed by all nations and citizens of the world in concert. As many have said, “There is no Planet B!”

© 2021 Henry E. Auer