The European Union’s Energy Roadmap for 2050

Summary.  The European Union (EU) has issued an Energy Roadmap for 2050.  It calls on the 27 member nations of the EU to reduce energy consumption by 20%, reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20%, and increase use of renewable energy by 20%, with respect to levels in 1990, all by 2020.  Subsequently, the Roadmap sets the goal of decreasing emissions by 80% to 95% below 1990 levels by 2050.  A major contributing mechanism to attaining these goals is the EU’s energy trading system, an emissions cap-and-trade regime. 

Introduction.  Over the last several decades it has become increasingly clear to climate scientists and policy makers that burning of fossil fuels for energy by humans around the globe emit carbon dioxide, CO2, an important greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere.  CO2 and other greenhouse gases lead to increased global average temperatures.  These have adverse climatic effects on a regional scale, leading variously to aridity and drought, or extreme rain and floods, and sea level rise, among other harmful effects.

The Kyoto Protocol of 1998. In response to this realization the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established guidelines for reducing humanity’s emissions of greenhouse gases, in the 1990’s.  The Kyoto Protocol, developed in 1998, established the goal of reducing the emission of CO2 by at least 5%, depending on the nation, below the level for 1990 by the period 2008 to 2012.  The European Union (EU) members at that time acceded to the Protocol with a reduction minimum of 8%, and began implementing programs intended to achieve this goal.  (Today’s two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, China and the United States, are not covered by the Kyoto Protocol, China because it was considered a developing country and so excluded, and the U. S. because the U. S. Senate voted against accession.) 

The EU has expanded.  The EU has expanded in more recent years, and currently numbers 27 countries, including nations of the former Soviet Union and others, encompassing 500 million people.  As such, climate agreements directed toward the EU cover more countries, with more inhabitants, than at the time of the Kyoto Protocol.  In 2005, the EU began operating its Emissions Trading System (ETS; a “cap-and-trade” regime).

Goals for 2020. The EU recently issued a goal of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below the levels of 1990 by the year 2020, to increase energy production from renewable sources to 20% and to reduce overall energy use by 20%.  In the period from 1990 to 2009, the gross domestic product of the EU, a measure of the total production of goods and services, grew by 40%, while overall emissions were reduced by 16%.

EU’s Energy Efficiency Goals for 2020 Will Not Be Met.  Future projections for efficiency improvements based on detailed global and EU modeling and scenario development, however, do not sustain the historical efficiency recorded through 2009, as seen in the following graphic for projections based both on 2007 and 2009.

Mtoe, millions of metric tonnes of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gas emissions.

Source, European Commission “Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”, issued in 2011;

http://www.delaus.ec.europa.eu/environment/Jill-Duggan-PresentationRoadmap8-3-

2011final.pdf

As noted in the graphic, policies and activities directed toward reducing energy consumption that are currently in practice would achieve only about a 10% reduction compared to no action (“Business as usual”) by 2020.

The European Union’s Roadmap For a Low Carbon Economy in 2050.  The EU issued its “Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050” on March 8, 2011.   It was developed using a detailed atmospheric model assembled within the EU.

A Need to Develop the Roadmap.  The Roadmap points out the failing identified above, and others.  Listing reasons for striving toward a drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, it identifies benefits for energy security, including relief from the EU’s current increasing dependence on foreign sources for fossil fuels and economic risks arising from unpredictable and higher prices for fuels.  It recognizes that at the time of writing, impacts of severe weather increasingly may have negative impacts on economic development; these include more frequent and/or more severe consequences of extreme weather such as storms and floods, hot weather including heat waves and drought, and rising sea levels.  The following graphic shows such effects as a bar chart of the number of events plotted for each calendar year from 1980 to 2009.

Green: meteorological events such as storms; Blue: hydrological events such as floods; and Yellow: Climatological events such as extreme temperature, drought and forest fires.  The Solid Line is a long-term trend line for the yearly totals.  

Source: European Commission “Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”, issued in 2011;

http://www.delaus.ec.europa.eu/environment/Jill-Duggan-PresentationRoadmap8-3-2011final.pdf

Even though the year-by-year counts of events show variability, merely a subjective estimate across the time presented in the graphic shows that the counts for the meteorological events (green bars), the hydrological events (purple bars), and climatological events (yellow bars), each in turn, are about 2 to 3 times more numerous by 2006 to 2009 compared to 1980 to 1983.  These increases correlate with increases in emissions of greenhouse gases over this time frame, and with the corresponding increase in average global temperature as well.  Indeed, two reports in the scientific journal Nature in February 2011 for the first time show direct statistical causality between global warming trends and extreme rain and flooding events.  

Global Temperature Objective.  Furthermore, the Roadmap stands by the objective of restricting global warming to no more than 2°C (3.6°F) above the average global temperature that prevailed prior to the industrial revolution that was agreed to at the Copenhagen (2009) and Cancun (2010) meetings held under the UNFCCC.  Currently the average global temperature has increased by about 0.75°C during that time.  Various climate models predict that further global temperatures may increase anywhere from 1.1°C to 6.4°C beyond today’s level.

Climate Modeling Provides Details on Reductions in Energy Use by Economic Sectors.  The climate model prepared the EU’s energy objectives in the context of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.  In order to keep the globe as a whole on track to limit average temperature rise to 2°C, global emissions of greenhouse gases must decline by about 50% by 2050, which is the recommendation of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  Since it is understood that developing countries may need to continue using energy and emitting greenhouse gases during this period, their contribution to meeting these goals may be reduced.  In recognition of this need the EU in its Roadmap sets forth the stringent restriction for itself of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 95% from the emission level of 1990, by 2050, as recommended by the Cancun Agreement.  Analysis of the sectors of the economy contributing to this goal yields the projections of greenhouse gas emissions shown in the following graphic.

Relative greenhouse gas emissions charted at 5 year intervals by economic sector.  Actual results shown through 2010; projected results thereafter.  The red line shows projected results using policies in place prior to the Roadmap.  The remaining projections include technologies and policies to be implemented under the Roadmap.  Source: European Commission, “A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050” March 8, 2011.  http://ec.europa.eu/clima/documentation/roadmap/docs/com_2011_112_en.pdf

Achieving this objective envisions reductions in emissions of 1% per year until 2020, then 1.5% per year from 2020 to 2030, and finally 2% per year until 2050.  These should provide about 25% reduction in emissions by 2020, about 40% by 2030, and about 60% reduction by 2040.  A main mechanism for achieving the target is the ETS cap-and-trade regime covering industrial sources, and other efficiencies from building improvements, services, agriculture and transport.  The ETS program will provide both the needed clear price signal for CO2 emissions and long-term predictability so that the private sector can lay plans to progress toward these objectives. The 2020 goal also relies on an increase to 20% in the use of renewable energy sources, and on specific energy efficiency programs covering operations and activities throughout the economy.

Details of various technologies and practices that will lead to the significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions required are presented in the Roadmap and in an accompanying publication on energy efficiency.

In an earlier post on this blog Warmgloblog proposed that the earth’s atmospheric concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases was analogous to a bathtub containing CO2. The bathtub had a faucet delivering new CO2 into it, and a drain that removed little or no CO2, leading to a buildup of CO2 in the bathtub.  In a second post, Warmgloblog discussed a commentary by Hoffert in the journal Science stating the critical necessity of acting immediately to eliminate new emissions of greenhouse gases.

Costs and benefits envisioned for the Roadmap.  The EU Roadmap projection identifies investment expenditures required for implementation, as well as benefits resulting from the program.  They provide compensating amounts, as well as non-material benefits, so that major expenditures are not foreseen to be required.

Expenditures projected for investments.  The Table below shows anticipated annual expenditures arising internally within the EU according to the Roadmap, for each year from 2010 to 2050.  The EU’s figures in euros are converted to U. S. dollars at the exchange rate in March 2011.

Item	Billions of €	Billions of US$ (2011)
Buildings and appliances	75	107
Vehicles and transportation infrastructure	150	214
Electricity generation and grid	30	43
Total including other expenses not shown	270	386

The Roadmap points out importantly that delay in starting the program would increase the total required expenditures, and would cut into investment and startup timelines.

Benefits foreseen under the Roadmap.  It is predicted for the interval 2010 to 2050 fuel savings would range from €175 to 320 billion per year (US$ 250 to 457 billion per year).  Consumption of energy would be about 30% below the level of 2005 without adversely affecting energy services.  The EU economy would have a more secure energy base, since oil and gas imports would be about half of today’s needs.  The savings would be about €400 billion (US$ 570 billion) in 2050, equivalent to more than 3% of today’s EU GDP.  In addition, the Roadmap points out that all the money spent as investments stays within the EU rather than being sent abroad to pay for fuel imports.

The Roadmap estimates that up to 1.5 million new jobs will be created by 2020.  In the short term these would arise from the need to renovate and retrofit buildings, provide insulation materials and develop the fixed assets to be used for renewable energy sources.  Long term job prospects under favorable conditions will result from new energy research and technology development, and creation of new ventures focused on energy innovation.

Conclusions.  The EU Roadmap for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to the range of 5% to 20% of the levels that prevailed in 1990 is a very ambitious, but essential, undertaking.  It puts the EU, and the nations of the world, on a path to limiting atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations to a level that climate scientists have agreed should not be exceeded. 

The EU Roadmap is an affirmation of the need to achieve a low-carbon economy that is absent from the goals of other major emitters of greenhouse gases.  China is on a path that is predicted to continue to increase its use of fossil fuels at least through 2035.  As of 2008, coal, the fossil fuel yielding the highest amount of CO2 per unit of energy provided, constituted 71% of the total energy consumed in China.  Thermal power generation capacity, based mostly on coal, is estimated to increase from 650 GW in 2009 to 1,000 GW by 2020.

The U. S. has no national energy policy of any kind in place at this time.  It produces about one quarter of the world’s greenhouse gases, but its emission rate is relatively mature, and is predicted to grow modestly from 2009 to 2035. Three regional consortia of states have been formed within the past four years, and so don’t have the history of working within the Kyoto Protocol.  The (Northeast and Mid-Atlantic) Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative has been operating since 2005.  It has very modest goals and affects only electric power generation.  The Western Climate Initiative was formalized in 2007 and will begin operation in 2012.  It aims to achieve 15% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions across the region’s economy by 2020.  The Midwestern Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord, organized in 2007, has goals that are numerically identical to those set forth in the EU Roadmap.  Currently prospects for new energy legislation in the U. S. Congress establishing a single national policy are bleak.

The nations of the world have to date been incapable of reaching agreement on central aspects of limiting greenhouse gas emissions, as seen for example by the outcomes of the UNFCCC conferences in Copenhagen (2009) and Cancun (2010), although the Cancun meeting did reach important binding agreements.  The EU Roadmap appears to be first significant effort to implement the “deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions … required according to [climate] science, and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change” as set forth in the Cancun Agreement.  The rest of the world, both developed and developing countries, should begin similar efforts as soon as possible.

© 2011 Henry Auer

China and Global Warming: Past Growth and Future Trends

Summary:  The world is grappling with growth in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases arising from burning of fossil fuels over the last 150 years.  The increased amounts of greenhouse gases are thought to be responsible for global warming. 

In this post we characterize the growth in the use of energy in the People’s Republic of China since the beginning of its market-based economy in 1978, practically all of which has been generated from the burning of fossil fuels that produce greenhouse gases. Here we summarize certain projections of China's future energy demand and its production, and conclude with an analysis of its stated policies concerning global warming.  A companion analysis for the United States is presented in the next post.  

Introduction:  China is the most populous nation in the world.  Yet, as the Table below shows, it is a developing country economically, as its per capita GDP for the year

Nation	Population 2008, millions	Est. pop. 2050, millions	GDP, US$, billions, 2008	Rate of growth of GDP 2003-8, %	Per capita GDP, US$, 2008
China	1,336.3	1,417	4,327	10.9	3,238
Philippines	89.7	146	167	5.5	1,860
U.S.	308.8	404	14,093	2.4	45,608
France	61.9	68	2,857	1.8	46,160

Source: The Economist, Pocket World in Figures, 2011 Edition, Profile Books, London, 2010.

2008 reveals.  It can be grouped with another developing country, chosen here to be the Philippines, as having a low per capita GDP value.  These countries may be contrasted with developed countries such as the United States and France, both members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), whose per capita GDP numbers are almost 15 times greater than that of China.  These numbers show that as China continues on its path toward further development, its GDP, and its per capita GDP, could expand by an order of magnitude.

The graphic below shows just that path of expanding GDP in China over the past 50 years, charted here up to 2005.  It is apparent that GDP has been expanding rapidly since 1978, when market-based economic reforms were begun.

Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b3/Prc1952-2005gdp.gif. Permission for copying granted on Wikimedia. The exchange rate was 8.27 yuan per US$ from 1997 to 2005 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renminbi).

Such rapid economic growth can only be undertaken by the use of corresponding increases in energy use.  To the extent that China’s energy needs are filled by burning fossil fuels, its economic growth results in corresponding increases in greenhouse gas emissions.  This post explores the energy landscape of China at present, its predicted continued expansion in future decades, and its impact on resolving the urgencies imposed on the world by global warming.

Overview of Current Energy Production in China

China has embarked on a vast program to expand its economy and bring material benefits to large segments of its population (U.S. Energy Information Administration (USEIA)).  From 2000 to 2009 its economy expanded by about 10% per year, and in early 2010 it grew at an annual rate of 11.9%. 

The Wall Street Journal on July 18, 2010 cited the International Energy Agency as reporting that China has become the world’s largest consumer of energy, outstripping the U. S.  China’s energy use has grown dramatically over the past two decades, as it has rapidly expanded its economy and developed new energy-intensive industries as well as constructed extensive new infrastructure projects (see the previous graphic and the graphic below). 

Source: International Energy Agency.  Format © The Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703720504575376712353150310.html?mod=googlenews_wsj#project%3DCHENERGY0719%26articleTabs%3Dinteractive).  Total primary energy consumption in million tons of oil equivalent for 2000-2009; 2009 estimated.  Rose bars, U. S.; yellow bars, China.

Producing steel and cement requires the input of large amounts of heat energy.  In 2009 China consumed 2.3 billion tons of oil equivalent energy, which includes energy derived from all fossil fuels as well as renewables such as hydropower and wind, and nuclear energy.  In contrast, the overall usage in the U. S. was 2.2 billion tons of oil equivalent.  The U. S. has been the highest consumer of energy throughout the 20^th century.  As recently as 10 years ago, China’s consumption had been only half that of the U. S. In the interim, consumption by the U. S. has remained essentially constant, and even declined slightly in 2008 and 2009 as the economic recession took hold  (see the graphic).

Nevertheless, as a reflection of the per capita GDP data in the Introduction, the per capita energy use in China is far lower than in the U. S. (see the following graphic).

Source: International Energy Agency.  Format © The Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703720504575376712353150310.html?mod=googlenews_wsj#project%3DCHENERGY0719%26articleTabs%3Dinteractive).  Total primary energy consumption per capita in metric tons of oil equivalent for 2000-2009; 2009 estimated. Rose bars, U. S.; yellow bars, China.

The trend in China is increasing over the decade shown whereas that for the U.S. is steady or even declining in 2008 and 2009.

The distribution of fuels that provided the energy consumed by China in 2008 is shown in the following pie chart.  It is seen that coal provides by far the largest portion of China’s energy needs, as of 2008.

Source: U. S. Energy Information Agency (http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/China/Background.html).

Energy Production in China: Coal

China became the world’s highest emitter of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in 2007, surpassing the U. S. (Wall Street Journal, July 18, 2010) This is due to China’s heavy reliance on coal-fired electricity generation, and the fact that burning coal emits much more CO2 per unit of energy produced than any other fossil fuel. 

China’s newer coal-fired electricity plants are cheap, and burn more cleanly than earlier.  The new “supercritical plants” emit about 15% less CO2 than conventional ones, and cost about half the level prevalent in OECD countries ($500-$600 per kW (Reuters, 30 August 2010).

According to the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, coal costs about 1/6 as much per amount of heat produced on burning as does oil or natural gas, and China has vast deposits of coal.  Thus China has a strong incentive to continue using coal as a major source of its energy supply.  In 2006 China built new coal-fired plants with a total capacity of over 90 GW, or almost 2 large-capacity plants per week.  Just these newly-built plants emitted  13% of China’s 2006 total coal-fired greenhouse gases, adding about 500 million tons of CO2 to the atmosphere per year.

According to the U. S. Energy Information Agency (USEIA), China consumed an estimated 3.5 billion short tons of coal in 2009, (see the graphic below) which constituted 46 percent of the world total; this was a 180 percent increase since 2000. As seen in the graphic, coal consumption has been increasing over the last nine years, which is mirrored as well in the level of coal production, estimated at almost 3.4 billion short tons in 2009.



 Source: USEIA (http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/China/Coal.html)

Energy Production in China: Oil

In 2009 China consumed about 8.3 million barrels of oil per day, of which 4.0 million was from domestic production and the rest was imported (USEIA).  In that year China moved up to become the second largest importer of oil in the world, just outstripping Japan.  The U. S. remains by far the largest importer, at 9.6 million barrels per day in 2009.  USEIA estimates that Chinese demand for oil will continue to grow, reaching 9.6 million barrels per day in 2011, and about 17 million barrels per day by 2035.  A significant portion of the imported oil originates in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Angola, Iran and Russia.

Energy Production in  China: Gas

Natural gas contributes only a small fraction, 3%, of China’s total energy consumption as of 2008. Both production and demand for natural gas has been expanding rapidly in recent years.  The country expects to expand gas production and power generation using natural gas going forward, and is building several combined cycle (more efficient) natural gas plants (USEIA).

Electricity Generation in China

Explanation of Units. The watt is a unit of power, i.e., the rate of producing or using energy in a standard period of time.  When watts are multiplied by the time elapsed, we get the total amount of energy produced or consumed; in electricity jargon this energy unit is a watt-hour, or W-h.  More convenient amounts of power generation are measured in thousands of watts, or kilowatts (kW), and billions of watts, or gigawatts (GW).  The total amount of energy produced or used over a period of time, is expressed in thousands of W-h, or kilowatt-hours,(kW-h, on a household scale), or in millions or billions of kW-h (on an industrial scale or higher).

As of 2008, China’s actual capacity for generating electricity from all sources was about 800 GW.  In 2009 the total amount of electricity generated was about 3,500 billion kW-h for the nation as a whole, for the entire year.  As the graphic below shows, about 82% of this originated from conventional thermal generators, i.e., coal-, oil-, or natural gas-fired power plants.  Hydroelectric power represented about 16%.  According to USEIA, FACTS Global Energy estimated that overall generating capacity reached 950 GW by the end of 2010, a 19% increase.  Electricity production and consumption have more than doubled since 2000.  USEIA predicts that by 2035, the total annual electrical energy produced will be 10,555 billion kW-h, more than 3 times the amount produced in 2009.  The graphic below shows the breakdown of sources for the electricity that China generated in the 20 year period 1989-2009. 

Source: USEIA (http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/China/Electricity.html).  Red, conventional thermal; blue, hydroelectric; yellow, nuclear energy; green, other renewables.

 

Wind

Wind power is the second largest source of renewable energy generation in China after hydroelectric power.  China is the world’s 5^th largest producer of wind power.  Its wind generating capacity has roughly doubled each year from 2005 (USEIA).  The most favorable wind sources are in the barren regions of western China.  However, the power grid in this sparsely populated region lags far behind the generation capacity.  The consumers of this power are far from its source.  (Xinhua, September 21, 2010,  reported by the Manila Bulletin).

Solar

Dunhuang, in the northwestern Gansu Province of western China is the center of a burgeoning development of solar generation, as this region receives the most intense sunlight in China.  By 2012 it is expected that solar photovoltaic panels (silicon wafers) will generate 300,000 kW, and ultimately 10 million kW.  In addition, by 2012 50,000 kW of solar heat generation of electricity will be installed.  This is part of a major program to bring the less-developed regions of western China closer to parity with the more wealthy coastal regions. (Xinhua, September 21, 2010,  reported by the Manila Bulletin).

Nuclear

A small nuclear power capacity in China is represented by its 11 operational reactors, with 8 more under construction and another 8 being planned.  Uranium ore is available domestically and more is imported.  USEIA estimates that nuclear power contributed 2% of electricity produced in 2009, and will grow to about 6% in 2035.

Future Trends

USEIA estimates that coal consumption will continue to increase although its share of total energy will fall to about 62% by 2035.  China’s announced intention is to reduce carbon intensity (CO2 equivalents emitted per unit of GDP) by at least 40% from the level during 2005 by 2020; yet in view of the country’s large population and rapidly expanding economy it is expected that the total consumption of coal will nearly double to 112 quadrillion British thermal units over this time (see China’s Response to Global Warming, below).

In the 12^th Five Year Plan covering 2011-2015 China expects to close many older, smaller and less efficient coal plants in favor of larger ones (USEIA).  Many of the new plants supplanting the coal plants will use natural gas.

The Chinese government has forecast that conventional thermal power generation will remain the prevalent source over the next 1-2 decades, at about 67% of the total.  This may be understood at least partly in view of China’s vast reserves of coal.  Thermal power generation capacity is estimated to increase from 650 GW in 2009 to 1,000 GW by 2020.  USEIA’s estimate is more conservative at about 810 GW in 2020.

Renewable and Hydroelectric Sources

China has set forth a goal of generating 15% of its total energy production from renewable energy sources (USEIA).  As noted above, currently 16% of China’s electricity originates from hydroelectric power, and this generating capacity is the highest in the world.  This will increase even more as the Three Gorges Dam and other new hydroelectric generating facilities are brought on line.

 

The International Energy Agency (IEA; not to be confused with the USEIA)  is an autonomous organization associated with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).  The IEA recently published its World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2010, which analyzes present and projected world-wide production and consumption of energy over the period 2010-2035, and assesses scenarios for meeting various objectives for limiting the effects of global warming.  WEO 2010 formed the basis of an earlier post on this blog.  WEO 2010 presents forecasts of future greenhouse gas emissions and some indices of economic development, based primarily on the “New Policies Scenario” resulting from measures to be taken in response to the Copenhagen commitments of 2009 (nonbinding and inadequate though they may be).  WEO 2010 judges that under this Scenario CO2 emissions continue to rise, by 21% over the level of 2008; this “trend would make it all but impossible to achieve the 2 deg C goal, as the required reductions in emissions after 2020 would be too steep” (emphasis in the original).  Rather, what is needed, in the view of WEO 2010, is early adoption of more drastic steps to keep the atmospheric CO2 level below 450 parts per million, in order to restrain average global temperatures from increasing more than 2 deg C (3.6 deg F) above the level that prevailed before the industrial revolution of the 19^th century (the “450 Scenario”).  This limit was agreed to at Copenhagen, and confirmed at the recent Cancun conference (see the post).

Under the New Policies Scenario, WEO 2010 predicts worldwide coal usage shown in the following graphic.  It is seen that the contribution predicted for China alone is



a major part of the overall demand for coal. 

It is important to note that, in the preceding graphic, the contribution from coal, as well as from other fossil fuels not shown, provide annual increments to atmospheric CO2 once burned.  In a previous post the atmosphere was likened to a bathtub containing CO2.  These annual increments act to fill the bathtub even higher than it is today. Only zero increments, barring any compensating decreases, can keep the CO2 bathtub at a constant level.

China’s demand for all sources of energy is expected to continue growing at similar high rates in coming years.  These observations may be further visualized in the following graphic, which includes China’s share of projected changes in sources of energy demand (orange bars).

Reproduced from World Energy Outlook 2010 © OECD/IEA. 

The color scheme is the same as in the first graphic, above.  The bars for coal and oil to the left of the “0” line represent decreases in usage for these fuels over the period 2008-2035 in the OECD countries.  Bars to the right of the “0” line represent increases in usage.  Single-handedly China (orange) accounts for profound increases in demand for fossil fuels over this period, as well as for renewable sources of energy.  Mtoe, energy demand (consumption) expressed as equivalents of millions of tons of oil.

China’s Response to Global Warming

China’s policy in response to global concerns about the buildup of greenhouse gases, and the resulting global warming, has been to emphasize reduction of carbon intensity rather than actual quantities of greenhouse gases emitted.  Carbon intensity represents the rate of emission of greenhouse gases per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of overall economic activity of a country.  China’s policy is to reduce the carbon intensity by measures such as making use of fossil fuels more efficiently and expanding the use of renewable energy, hydroelectric generation and nuclear energy.  According to the Wall Street Journal of July 18, 2010, China has established a target of reducing its carbon intensity by 40-45% below the level that existed in 2005 by 2020.  Historically China has not subscribed to the view, put forward by the world’s climate scientists, and by other nations of the world, that it has to work toward reducing the absolute amount of greenhouse gases emitted.  Yet, as these scientists point out, it is the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions that must be controlled, indeed controlled quite drastically, to attain the reductions needed for the WEO 2010 450 Scenario.  Otherwise, as China continues its industrialization and the urbanization of its population, demand for total energy production will increase many-fold.  This may be seen, for example, by the great disparity between the per capita energy consumption between the U. S. and China, illustrated earlier in the third graphic above.

It should be noted, nevertheless, that perhaps China may be changing its approach to reducing global warming. In a press conference webcast from the Cancun climate conference held Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 2010, the representative of the People’s Republic of China, Xie Zhenhua, emphasized China’s progress in limiting its carbon intensity.  In the current (11^th) 5-year plan, carbon intensity has diminished by 20%.  In response to a question, Mr. Xie summarized China’s position that the industrialized nations have already attained high levels of economic prosperity, whereas China is still a developing country with a high level of poverty and increasing extents of urbanization still proceeding.  Nevertheless, he stated that China is building into the next (12^th) 5-year plan a goal of reaching a peak in carbon emissions (implying a subsequent decrease).  This statement may reveal an appreciation of the need to address total greenhouse gas emissions rather than carbon intensity.

© 2010 Henry Auer