China and Global Warming: Past Growth and Future Trends

Summary:  The world is grappling with growth in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases arising from burning of fossil fuels over the last 150 years.  The increased amounts of greenhouse gases are thought to be responsible for global warming. 

In this post we characterize the growth in the use of energy in the People’s Republic of China since the beginning of its market-based economy in 1978, practically all of which has been generated from the burning of fossil fuels that produce greenhouse gases. Here we summarize certain projections of China's future energy demand and its production, and conclude with an analysis of its stated policies concerning global warming.  A companion analysis for the United States is presented in the next post.  

Introduction:  China is the most populous nation in the world.  Yet, as the Table below shows, it is a developing country economically, as its per capita GDP for the year

Nation	Population 2008, millions	Est. pop. 2050, millions	GDP, US$, billions, 2008	Rate of growth of GDP 2003-8, %	Per capita GDP, US$, 2008
China	1,336.3	1,417	4,327	10.9	3,238
Philippines	89.7	146	167	5.5	1,860
U.S.	308.8	404	14,093	2.4	45,608
France	61.9	68	2,857	1.8	46,160

Source: The Economist, Pocket World in Figures, 2011 Edition, Profile Books, London, 2010.

2008 reveals.  It can be grouped with another developing country, chosen here to be the Philippines, as having a low per capita GDP value.  These countries may be contrasted with developed countries such as the United States and France, both members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), whose per capita GDP numbers are almost 15 times greater than that of China.  These numbers show that as China continues on its path toward further development, its GDP, and its per capita GDP, could expand by an order of magnitude.

The graphic below shows just that path of expanding GDP in China over the past 50 years, charted here up to 2005.  It is apparent that GDP has been expanding rapidly since 1978, when market-based economic reforms were begun.

Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b3/Prc1952-2005gdp.gif. Permission for copying granted on Wikimedia. The exchange rate was 8.27 yuan per US$ from 1997 to 2005 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renminbi).

Such rapid economic growth can only be undertaken by the use of corresponding increases in energy use.  To the extent that China’s energy needs are filled by burning fossil fuels, its economic growth results in corresponding increases in greenhouse gas emissions.  This post explores the energy landscape of China at present, its predicted continued expansion in future decades, and its impact on resolving the urgencies imposed on the world by global warming.

Overview of Current Energy Production in China

China has embarked on a vast program to expand its economy and bring material benefits to large segments of its population (U.S. Energy Information Administration (USEIA)).  From 2000 to 2009 its economy expanded by about 10% per year, and in early 2010 it grew at an annual rate of 11.9%. 

The Wall Street Journal on July 18, 2010 cited the International Energy Agency as reporting that China has become the world’s largest consumer of energy, outstripping the U. S.  China’s energy use has grown dramatically over the past two decades, as it has rapidly expanded its economy and developed new energy-intensive industries as well as constructed extensive new infrastructure projects (see the previous graphic and the graphic below). 

Source: International Energy Agency.  Format © The Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703720504575376712353150310.html?mod=googlenews_wsj#project%3DCHENERGY0719%26articleTabs%3Dinteractive).  Total primary energy consumption in million tons of oil equivalent for 2000-2009; 2009 estimated.  Rose bars, U. S.; yellow bars, China.

Producing steel and cement requires the input of large amounts of heat energy.  In 2009 China consumed 2.3 billion tons of oil equivalent energy, which includes energy derived from all fossil fuels as well as renewables such as hydropower and wind, and nuclear energy.  In contrast, the overall usage in the U. S. was 2.2 billion tons of oil equivalent.  The U. S. has been the highest consumer of energy throughout the 20^th century.  As recently as 10 years ago, China’s consumption had been only half that of the U. S. In the interim, consumption by the U. S. has remained essentially constant, and even declined slightly in 2008 and 2009 as the economic recession took hold  (see the graphic).

Nevertheless, as a reflection of the per capita GDP data in the Introduction, the per capita energy use in China is far lower than in the U. S. (see the following graphic).

Source: International Energy Agency.  Format © The Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703720504575376712353150310.html?mod=googlenews_wsj#project%3DCHENERGY0719%26articleTabs%3Dinteractive).  Total primary energy consumption per capita in metric tons of oil equivalent for 2000-2009; 2009 estimated. Rose bars, U. S.; yellow bars, China.

The trend in China is increasing over the decade shown whereas that for the U.S. is steady or even declining in 2008 and 2009.

The distribution of fuels that provided the energy consumed by China in 2008 is shown in the following pie chart.  It is seen that coal provides by far the largest portion of China’s energy needs, as of 2008.

Source: U. S. Energy Information Agency (http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/China/Background.html).

Energy Production in China: Coal

China became the world’s highest emitter of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in 2007, surpassing the U. S. (Wall Street Journal, July 18, 2010) This is due to China’s heavy reliance on coal-fired electricity generation, and the fact that burning coal emits much more CO2 per unit of energy produced than any other fossil fuel. 

China’s newer coal-fired electricity plants are cheap, and burn more cleanly than earlier.  The new “supercritical plants” emit about 15% less CO2 than conventional ones, and cost about half the level prevalent in OECD countries ($500-$600 per kW (Reuters, 30 August 2010).

According to the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, coal costs about 1/6 as much per amount of heat produced on burning as does oil or natural gas, and China has vast deposits of coal.  Thus China has a strong incentive to continue using coal as a major source of its energy supply.  In 2006 China built new coal-fired plants with a total capacity of over 90 GW, or almost 2 large-capacity plants per week.  Just these newly-built plants emitted  13% of China’s 2006 total coal-fired greenhouse gases, adding about 500 million tons of CO2 to the atmosphere per year.

According to the U. S. Energy Information Agency (USEIA), China consumed an estimated 3.5 billion short tons of coal in 2009, (see the graphic below) which constituted 46 percent of the world total; this was a 180 percent increase since 2000. As seen in the graphic, coal consumption has been increasing over the last nine years, which is mirrored as well in the level of coal production, estimated at almost 3.4 billion short tons in 2009.



 Source: USEIA (http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/China/Coal.html)

Energy Production in China: Oil

In 2009 China consumed about 8.3 million barrels of oil per day, of which 4.0 million was from domestic production and the rest was imported (USEIA).  In that year China moved up to become the second largest importer of oil in the world, just outstripping Japan.  The U. S. remains by far the largest importer, at 9.6 million barrels per day in 2009.  USEIA estimates that Chinese demand for oil will continue to grow, reaching 9.6 million barrels per day in 2011, and about 17 million barrels per day by 2035.  A significant portion of the imported oil originates in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Angola, Iran and Russia.

Energy Production in  China: Gas

Natural gas contributes only a small fraction, 3%, of China’s total energy consumption as of 2008. Both production and demand for natural gas has been expanding rapidly in recent years.  The country expects to expand gas production and power generation using natural gas going forward, and is building several combined cycle (more efficient) natural gas plants (USEIA).

Electricity Generation in China

Explanation of Units. The watt is a unit of power, i.e., the rate of producing or using energy in a standard period of time.  When watts are multiplied by the time elapsed, we get the total amount of energy produced or consumed; in electricity jargon this energy unit is a watt-hour, or W-h.  More convenient amounts of power generation are measured in thousands of watts, or kilowatts (kW), and billions of watts, or gigawatts (GW).  The total amount of energy produced or used over a period of time, is expressed in thousands of W-h, or kilowatt-hours,(kW-h, on a household scale), or in millions or billions of kW-h (on an industrial scale or higher).

As of 2008, China’s actual capacity for generating electricity from all sources was about 800 GW.  In 2009 the total amount of electricity generated was about 3,500 billion kW-h for the nation as a whole, for the entire year.  As the graphic below shows, about 82% of this originated from conventional thermal generators, i.e., coal-, oil-, or natural gas-fired power plants.  Hydroelectric power represented about 16%.  According to USEIA, FACTS Global Energy estimated that overall generating capacity reached 950 GW by the end of 2010, a 19% increase.  Electricity production and consumption have more than doubled since 2000.  USEIA predicts that by 2035, the total annual electrical energy produced will be 10,555 billion kW-h, more than 3 times the amount produced in 2009.  The graphic below shows the breakdown of sources for the electricity that China generated in the 20 year period 1989-2009. 

Source: USEIA (http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/China/Electricity.html).  Red, conventional thermal; blue, hydroelectric; yellow, nuclear energy; green, other renewables.

 

Wind

Wind power is the second largest source of renewable energy generation in China after hydroelectric power.  China is the world’s 5^th largest producer of wind power.  Its wind generating capacity has roughly doubled each year from 2005 (USEIA).  The most favorable wind sources are in the barren regions of western China.  However, the power grid in this sparsely populated region lags far behind the generation capacity.  The consumers of this power are far from its source.  (Xinhua, September 21, 2010,  reported by the Manila Bulletin).

Solar

Dunhuang, in the northwestern Gansu Province of western China is the center of a burgeoning development of solar generation, as this region receives the most intense sunlight in China.  By 2012 it is expected that solar photovoltaic panels (silicon wafers) will generate 300,000 kW, and ultimately 10 million kW.  In addition, by 2012 50,000 kW of solar heat generation of electricity will be installed.  This is part of a major program to bring the less-developed regions of western China closer to parity with the more wealthy coastal regions. (Xinhua, September 21, 2010,  reported by the Manila Bulletin).

Nuclear

A small nuclear power capacity in China is represented by its 11 operational reactors, with 8 more under construction and another 8 being planned.  Uranium ore is available domestically and more is imported.  USEIA estimates that nuclear power contributed 2% of electricity produced in 2009, and will grow to about 6% in 2035.

Future Trends

USEIA estimates that coal consumption will continue to increase although its share of total energy will fall to about 62% by 2035.  China’s announced intention is to reduce carbon intensity (CO2 equivalents emitted per unit of GDP) by at least 40% from the level during 2005 by 2020; yet in view of the country’s large population and rapidly expanding economy it is expected that the total consumption of coal will nearly double to 112 quadrillion British thermal units over this time (see China’s Response to Global Warming, below).

In the 12^th Five Year Plan covering 2011-2015 China expects to close many older, smaller and less efficient coal plants in favor of larger ones (USEIA).  Many of the new plants supplanting the coal plants will use natural gas.

The Chinese government has forecast that conventional thermal power generation will remain the prevalent source over the next 1-2 decades, at about 67% of the total.  This may be understood at least partly in view of China’s vast reserves of coal.  Thermal power generation capacity is estimated to increase from 650 GW in 2009 to 1,000 GW by 2020.  USEIA’s estimate is more conservative at about 810 GW in 2020.

Renewable and Hydroelectric Sources

China has set forth a goal of generating 15% of its total energy production from renewable energy sources (USEIA).  As noted above, currently 16% of China’s electricity originates from hydroelectric power, and this generating capacity is the highest in the world.  This will increase even more as the Three Gorges Dam and other new hydroelectric generating facilities are brought on line.

 

The International Energy Agency (IEA; not to be confused with the USEIA)  is an autonomous organization associated with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).  The IEA recently published its World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2010, which analyzes present and projected world-wide production and consumption of energy over the period 2010-2035, and assesses scenarios for meeting various objectives for limiting the effects of global warming.  WEO 2010 formed the basis of an earlier post on this blog.  WEO 2010 presents forecasts of future greenhouse gas emissions and some indices of economic development, based primarily on the “New Policies Scenario” resulting from measures to be taken in response to the Copenhagen commitments of 2009 (nonbinding and inadequate though they may be).  WEO 2010 judges that under this Scenario CO2 emissions continue to rise, by 21% over the level of 2008; this “trend would make it all but impossible to achieve the 2 deg C goal, as the required reductions in emissions after 2020 would be too steep” (emphasis in the original).  Rather, what is needed, in the view of WEO 2010, is early adoption of more drastic steps to keep the atmospheric CO2 level below 450 parts per million, in order to restrain average global temperatures from increasing more than 2 deg C (3.6 deg F) above the level that prevailed before the industrial revolution of the 19^th century (the “450 Scenario”).  This limit was agreed to at Copenhagen, and confirmed at the recent Cancun conference (see the post).

Under the New Policies Scenario, WEO 2010 predicts worldwide coal usage shown in the following graphic.  It is seen that the contribution predicted for China alone is



a major part of the overall demand for coal. 

It is important to note that, in the preceding graphic, the contribution from coal, as well as from other fossil fuels not shown, provide annual increments to atmospheric CO2 once burned.  In a previous post the atmosphere was likened to a bathtub containing CO2.  These annual increments act to fill the bathtub even higher than it is today. Only zero increments, barring any compensating decreases, can keep the CO2 bathtub at a constant level.

China’s demand for all sources of energy is expected to continue growing at similar high rates in coming years.  These observations may be further visualized in the following graphic, which includes China’s share of projected changes in sources of energy demand (orange bars).

Reproduced from World Energy Outlook 2010 © OECD/IEA. 

The color scheme is the same as in the first graphic, above.  The bars for coal and oil to the left of the “0” line represent decreases in usage for these fuels over the period 2008-2035 in the OECD countries.  Bars to the right of the “0” line represent increases in usage.  Single-handedly China (orange) accounts for profound increases in demand for fossil fuels over this period, as well as for renewable sources of energy.  Mtoe, energy demand (consumption) expressed as equivalents of millions of tons of oil.

China’s Response to Global Warming

China’s policy in response to global concerns about the buildup of greenhouse gases, and the resulting global warming, has been to emphasize reduction of carbon intensity rather than actual quantities of greenhouse gases emitted.  Carbon intensity represents the rate of emission of greenhouse gases per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of overall economic activity of a country.  China’s policy is to reduce the carbon intensity by measures such as making use of fossil fuels more efficiently and expanding the use of renewable energy, hydroelectric generation and nuclear energy.  According to the Wall Street Journal of July 18, 2010, China has established a target of reducing its carbon intensity by 40-45% below the level that existed in 2005 by 2020.  Historically China has not subscribed to the view, put forward by the world’s climate scientists, and by other nations of the world, that it has to work toward reducing the absolute amount of greenhouse gases emitted.  Yet, as these scientists point out, it is the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions that must be controlled, indeed controlled quite drastically, to attain the reductions needed for the WEO 2010 450 Scenario.  Otherwise, as China continues its industrialization and the urbanization of its population, demand for total energy production will increase many-fold.  This may be seen, for example, by the great disparity between the per capita energy consumption between the U. S. and China, illustrated earlier in the third graphic above.

It should be noted, nevertheless, that perhaps China may be changing its approach to reducing global warming. In a press conference webcast from the Cancun climate conference held Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 2010, the representative of the People’s Republic of China, Xie Zhenhua, emphasized China’s progress in limiting its carbon intensity.  In the current (11^th) 5-year plan, carbon intensity has diminished by 20%.  In response to a question, Mr. Xie summarized China’s position that the industrialized nations have already attained high levels of economic prosperity, whereas China is still a developing country with a high level of poverty and increasing extents of urbanization still proceeding.  Nevertheless, he stated that China is building into the next (12^th) 5-year plan a goal of reaching a peak in carbon emissions (implying a subsequent decrease).  This statement may reveal an appreciation of the need to address total greenhouse gas emissions rather than carbon intensity.

© 2010 Henry Auer

World Energy Outlook 2010: Climate and Energy Projections 2008-2035

Summary: The International Energy Agency recently published its World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2010.  The Outlook analyzes the commitments that nations of the world made at the 2009 Copenhagen climate change conference.  It finds that these measures are inadequate to restrict greenhouse gas emissions sufficiently to keep the global average temperature within 2 deg C above the temperature that prevailed in the pre-industrial revolution period.  The Outlook instead demonstrates that only more drastic actions, begun immediately, can achieve this objective.  This conclusion is in agreement with those expressed recently by individual climate scientists and other organizations.

Introduction. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an autonomous organization associated with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).  The IEA has 28 member states among developed countries of the world, including most European countries, the U. S., Japan, and Australia. 

The IEA recently published its World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2010, which analyzes present and projected world-wide production and consumption of energy over the period 2010-2035, and assesses scenarios for meeting various objectives for limiting the effects of global warming.  This posting is based on the WEO 2010 Press Release of Nov. 9, 2010, and the WEO 2010 Executive Summary, both of which are available as linked without charge.  The full publication is available for purchase.

The Copenhagen Accord of 2009.  The United Nations conference on climate change held in Copenhagen in 2009 was convened to establish an updated agreement to follow the Kyoto Protocol.  Considerable disagreement among the participants led to a weakened result.  The Copenhagen Accord is a nonbinding commitment to limit the increase in global temperature to 2 deg C (3.6 deg F) above pre-industrial levels.  (Currently the global average temperature is 0.7 deg C above this baseline.)  In addition the Accord set the goal for industrialized countries to provide funding directed toward reducing global warming and for remediation in developing countries, amounting to US$100 billion per year by 2020. 

WEO 2010.  According to WEO 2010, however, the actual commitments made, even if fully placed in effect, would fail to achieve the stated objective of limiting global warming to 2 deg C by in turn limiting emissions of greenhouse gases.  The significance of this finding is that considerably greater effort and higher expenditures will be needed in coming years, for example after 2020, to achieve the original objective.  The feasibility of this scenario is deemed questionable.  An important aspect of achieving this goal would be eliminating various national subsidies promoting the “wasteful” use of fossil fuels.

Three energy scenarios appear in WEO 2010.  The Current Policies Scenario projects developments in the global energy economy in the absence of overt actions limiting fossil fuel use or developing alternative energy sources.  The New Policies Scenario offers predicted changes in energy demand resulting from measures to be taken in response to the Copenhagen commitments (nonbinding and inadequate though they may be).  WEO 2010 judges that under this Scenario CO2 emissions continue to rise, by 21% over the level of 2008; this “trend would make it all but impossible to achieve the 2 deg C goal, as the required reductions in emissions after 2020 would be too steep” (emphasis in the original).  Rather, this Scenario would likely lead to an atmospheric concentration of 650 ppm CO2-equivalents, corresponding to a likely temperature rise of more than 3.5 deg C (6.3 deg F).

The more rigorous 450 Scenario, first presented in the WEO 2008 document, has the objective of restricting global average temperature rise to 2 deg C (3.6 deg F) above the average temperature of the pre-industrial revolution period, by limiting atmospheric greenhouse gas content to about 450 parts per million of CO2 equivalents (ppm).  Climate scientists concur that limiting global warming to 2 deg C requires very drastic reductions in CO2-equivalent emissions, including removal of fossil fuel subsidies, and pricing CO2-equivalents at about US$90-120 per ton by 2035.

A somewhat detailed summary of WEO 2010 appears directly below.  Those readers not wishing to go through those details can skip to the Conclusion at the end of this posting.

Projected Energy Demand Through 2035. The following table summarizes annual rates of increase in energy demand projected for each the three scenarios mentioned above.  As a point of reference, for the New

Energy demand, Annualized rates of increase

Scenario	Historic (past) Change 27 yrs, %/yr	Projected change 2008-2035, %/yr
Current Policies	2	1.4
New Policies		1.2
450		0.7

Policies Scenario, the overall projected increase is 36%, and represents an increase from the equivalent of about 12,300 million tons of oil-derived energy (Mtoe) as of 2008 to about 16,700 Mtoe in 2035 (see the graphic below).



Reproduced from World Energy Outlook 2010 © OECD/IEA.  The OECD has essentially similar membership as the IEA, plus 5 additional nations.   Data to the left of the solid vertical line at the year 2008 are actual.   Energy demand beyond 2008, to the right of the vertical line, is a projection based on the New Policies Scenario.  The dashed line indicates predictions based on the Current Policies Scenario (Reference Scenario).  Mtoe, energy demand (consumption) expressed as equivalents of millions of tons of oil.



The graphic above shows that the developed countries of the world, as represented by OECD (blue band), are projected not to contribute significantly to any increase in energy demand over the next 25 years.  Rather, China (orange band) and India and the rest of the countries of the world (yellow band) are projected to account for essentially all the increase in demand.  Together, nations outside the OECD account for 93% of the increase in overall energy demand in the New Policies Scenario (see the graphic above).  For example, the rate of growth of energy demand in China is projected to be 75%. 

This general result is understandable in view of the facts that

1.      these nations have populations far exceeding those of the OECD,

2.      their populations are growing at far faster rates than in the OECD, and

3.      their economic growth rates (and hence growth in energy demand) are higher than in the OECD, since they have only recently begun industrialization and urbanization.

The following Table illustrates some of these factors, for selected nations.  The U. S. and France are intended to exemplify OECD nations, whereas the other examples show data for developing, non-OECD, 

Nation	Population 2008, millions	Est. pop. 2050, millions	GDP, US$, billions, 2008	Rate of growth of GDP 2003-8, %
China	1,336.3	1,417	4,327	10.9
India	1,186.2	1,614	1,159	8.7
U.S.	308.8	404	14,093	2.4
Philippines	89.7	146	167	5.5
France	61.9	68	2,857	1.8

Source: The Economist, Pocket World in Figures, 2011 Edition, Profile Books, London, 2010.

nations.
The demand for energy is projected to be satisfied largely by conventional fossil fuels (oil, coal and natural gas).  Costs for these sources are likely to rise, contributing to a modulation in the demand for their use, being highest in the 450 Scenario.  Even so, the mix among these fuels is projected to shift, with demand for oil diminishing somewhat, and demand for coal and natural gas increasing.

China. WEO 2010 writes “[i]t is hard to overstate the growing importance of China in global energy markets.” China is now the largest national consumer of energy in the world in 2009, even though as recently as 2000 the country consumed only about half as much energy as the U. S.  Even so, its per capita energy use is still one third that of the OECD average.  China’s use of energy is expected to continue growing at similar high rates in coming years.  These observations may be visualized in the first graphic, presented above, and the following one, which includes China’s share of projected growth in sources of energy demand.

Reproduced from World Energy Outlook 2010 © OECD/IEA. 

The color scheme is the same as in the first graphic, above.  The bars for coal and oil to the left of the “0” line represent decreases in usage for these fuels over the period 2008-2035 in the OECD countries.  Single-handedly China accounts for profound increases in demand for fossil fuels over this period, as well as for renewable sources of energy.  Mtoe, energy demand (consumption) expressed as equivalents of millions of tons of oil.

Coal. According to WEO 2010, use of coal in the generation of electricity will expand greatly in the period 2008-2035 (see the following graphic).  Already in the period leading up to 2008, China was bringing new coal-burning facilities on line at a pace of 1-2 per week (note the expanding use of coal in that period).



Reproduced from World Energy Outlook 2010 © OECD/IEA.  Data to the left of the solid vertical line at the year 2008 are actual.   Coal-fired generation beyond 2008, to the right of the vertical line, is a projection based on the New Policies Scenario.   A watt-hour (Wh) is a unit of energy used in characterizing electricity generation and usage. TWh, terawatt-hours, or thousands of billion watt-hours.  The author presumes TWh refers to annual production of electric energy.



China has extensive domestic supplies of coal.  Use of coal is projected to almost double through 2035.  India is also greatly increasing its use of coal for electricity, whereas the OECD countries are projected to lower the use of coal for this purpose.

Oil.  Oil pricing has less than expected effects on supply and demand.  It is costly to identify and exploit new reserves, driving up the price, but demand does not respond accordingly, in part because of the use of oil in transport for which there is no alternative.  The graphic below depicts the projected growth in number of cars for 2020 and 2035.



Reproduced from World Energy Outlook 2010 © OECD/IEA.  Data through the year 2008 are actual.



In addition, many nations provide subsidies for purchase of oil products, as well as other fossil fuels, to their citizens.  Unconventional oil sources are being increasingly exploited, including tar sands in Canada and shale oil.  These sources require higher input of energy to extract the intended product than conventional drilling and pumping.

In the New Policies Scenario oil production grows to about 99 million barrels per day in 2035, up from 84 million barrels per day in 2009.  In this Scenario, production barely reaches a peak by the end of the period.  In the 450 Scenario, in contrast, oil production is seen to reach a maximum by 2020, and falls considerably thereafter.

Gas.  Use of natural gas increases strikingly in the projected period.  In the New Policies Scenario, its use grows by 44% by 2035, or about 1.4% per year.  Demand in China increases the most, averaging almost 6% per year.  Most expanded production originates in the Middle East.

Electricity Generation.  The global demand for electricity is projected to grow most intensely of all final forms of energy consumed.  In the New Policies Scenario it is expected to grow 2.2% per year, 80% of which occurs in non-OECD nations.  The profile of electricity generation is seen as shifting profoundly to use of alternative energy sources.  Coal, the least efficient source for generating electricity, is projected to fall from 41% of supply in 2008 to 32% by 2035.  Natural gas production, which is considerably more efficient both in terms of power generated and in terms of emitting less greenhouse gas, grows in absolute quantities but remains at about 21% of the overall mix. 

Renewable sources for electricity generation grow considerably (see the graphic below),

Reproduced from World Energy Outlook 2010 © OECD/IEA.  Mtoe, energy demand (consumption) expressed as equivalents of millions of tons of oil.

but will rely heavily on continued sizeable government support to sustain its growth.  The shift away from fossil fuels for electricity generation should reduce the emission of CO2 per unit of electricity provided by about one-third over the time period considered.  In order to make renewable fuels and biofuel production significant in the global energy economy, government support should increase from about US$57 billion in 2009 to about US$205 billion (present value) by 2035.

Conclusion.  WEO 2010 considers that the goal of limiting global warming to 2 deg C above pre-industrial levels is achievable using the 450 Scenario.  Oil demand would peak by 2020.  Coal demand likewise would peak at about the same time.  New coal-fired power plants to be built would largely be fitted with carbon capture and storage capability (which this author believes is unproven as of today), keeping their CO2 emissions out of the atmosphere.  Nuclear energy and renewable energy sources are foreseen playing a large and increasing role in the energy economy by 2035.

Because of global political delays in embarking on policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the recent past, WEO 2010 projects the additional expense to implement the more vigorous measures needed to compensate for the delay would add about US$1 trillion to the cost estimate of about US$11 trillion that was proposed in WEO 2009. 

Overall, WEO 2010 deems that achieving the Copenhagen goal of limiting global warming to 2 deg C is “still (just about) achievable”, by embarking on the 450 Scenario.

This conclusion is in accord with other evaluations of the present status of global warming.  Davis, Caldeira and Matthews showed that even if no new installations burning fossil fuels were put in operation in the future, existing facilities would still emit atmospheric CO2 that would lead to further global warming.  In view of this result, Hoffert, in his commentary on the Davis article, emphasizes the very dire situation that we will actually face in the future.  Recent predictions of future global warming from the United Kingdom and the United Nations suggest that average global temperatures could rise 4 deg C (7 deg F) or more from today by the end of the century.  Hoffert emphasized the immediate need to undertake major, drastic efforts to cut back on global greenhouse gas emissions, and to develop renewable and sustainable energy sources.

In summary, it is clear that both individual climate scientists and official organizations agree on the need for bold, rapid, large-scale programs to supplant a fossil fuel-driven energy economy with a renewable, sustainable one.

© 2010 Henry Auer