Americans Support Action on Global Warming

Reports showing that global warming and its worldwide effects on human lives have become more common in recent months and years.  Here, we summarize the results of some polls of American public opinion on this subject.

Polls concerning the attitudes of the American public on global warming have appeared recently.  The results show that a majority of Americans, as represented by the poll samples, are in favor of taking action to combat global warming.  The data summarized in this section group the polls together.  They are presented more fully, considering each poll separately, in the Details section at the end of this post.

A significant majority of Americans thinks that global average temperatures are rising.  Of these, most think that human activity is giving rise to the warming of the planet, while only a relatively small portion of this group thinks that the warming originates from natural causes or processes.  A majority of Americans favors action to combat global warming, such as promoting development of renewable sources of energy.  The various polls pay differing degrees of attention to the attitudes of their respondents based on political or cultural typing (see Details). 

Discussion 

The poll results cited here show that the American public supports action on global warming.  More than half of Americans think that warming is a reality, which necessarily reflects the results of objective scientific data as well as perceptions of its effects on individuals’ lives.  A majority of Americans support regulation of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas (see Details below).  As an example of this approach, a majority of Americans favor limiting emissions of carbon dioxide from existing coal-fired power plants (see Details below).  A majority also supports policies that would promote development of renewable energy sources (see Details below).

These polls show that there is majority support among the American public for action by the government to combat global warming.  The results should be taken seriously by their elected representatives in Congress.  It maybe inferred from these polls that the American public would look favorably on their elected representatives if they were to propose and support legislation to address global warming.  According to the poll results this should include substantive, effective measures to constrain further greenhouse gas emission.  It may be inferred that actions should also include plans to construct infrastructure projects that would increase the resilience of the nation against extreme weather and climate events.

Historical Background

The United States has never developed a national policy to combat global warming by enactment of laws in the Congress.  The Kyoto Protocol, negotiated under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, included only developed (i.e., already industrialized) countries of the world.  Kyoto set modest goals of reducing greenhouse gas emission rates for the covered nations; it remained in effect until the end of 2012.    Each covered nation had to ratify the Protocol in its national legislature in order for that nation to be governed by its terms.  Being a foreign treaty, it was considered only in the U. S. Senate, which unanimously voted against ratification in 1997.

Within the U. S. national legislation was first proposed as the Climate Stewardship Act by Senators McCain, Lieberman and others in 2003.  It proposed a cap-and-trade market-based system to lower greenhouse gases.  It failed to gain passage.  Later versions, brought forth in 2005 and 2007, likewise did not pass Congress.

The American Clean Energy and Security Act was put forth by Representatives Waxman and Markey in 2009.  It also envisioned market-based emission limits based on a cap-and-trade system.  It passed the House of Representatives, by 219-212, the first time any global warming legislation was approved in either branch of Congress.  The Act failed to gain approval in the Senate, however.

In reaction to the absence of enacted laws to address global warming, President Obama has taken executive actions to implement important, significant policies.  He has acted to double the average fuel efficiency of motor vehicles in two stages, first increasing to 36.6 miles per gallon (mpg) by 2017 and to 54.5 mpg by 2025. 

Likewise, the President has acted to limit greenhouse gas emission rates from existing large-scale electric power plants by proposing constraints that would require them to become more efficient.  The goal is to reduce CO₂ emissions from electricity generation by 30% below the levels emitted in 2005 by the year 2030.  A similar earlier proposal covers only newly-constructed electricity generating plants.

More comprehensively, the President’s National Climate Plan of 2013 lays out a comprehensive set of initiatives intending to lower rates of emission of greenhouse gases, increase efficiency of energy usage and develop projects that would strengthen the resilience of the U. S. economy to the effects of extreme weather and climate events. 

Details 

The Pew Research Center (Pew) is an established opinion research organization that gathers information on the attitudes of the public on a wide range of issues.  It professes to be nonpartisan and does not engage in policy development.  After probing the political attitudes of a large number of Americans Pew typed respondents into seven groups.  These range from Steadfast Conservatives (12% of the adult population) and Business Conservatives (10%), both of which tend strongly to associate with Republicans, to Solid Liberals (15%), associated with Democrats.  Four groups in between these (each comprising 12-15% of the population have complex attitudes relating to political issues; they are distributed relatively evenly between Republicans and Democrats.

Pew released a poll on global warming and many other political issues on June 26, 2014, based on results from 10,013 respondents.  They found that 61% of those surveyed think warming is occurring, while 35% think there is “no solid evidence of warming” (percentages presented here and below may not total to 100% because of rounding errors and omission of small groups).  Among those thinking there is no solid evidence, those believing it “just is not happening” and those believing they “don’t know enough yet” are each 17% of all respondents.  Among those thinking warming is happening, 40% of the poll respondents think it is “caused by human activity” and 18% think it is “caused by natural patterns”.

On deeper study of respondents to this question 75% and 71% of the two conservative types identified by Pew think there is “no solid evidence of warming”.  Among the remaining types between 61% and 91% of each type think warming is happening; with 91% of Solid Liberals thinking so.  78% of Solid Liberals ascribe warming to human activity. 

Pew examined attitudes concerning environmental policy and its effect on jobs.  For the poll population at large, 56% believe “stricter enviro(nmental) laws are worth the cost, while 39% say “stricter enviro(nmental) laws cost too many jobs.  85% of Steadfast Conservatives and 84% of Business Conservatives believe laws are too costly, whereas among the remaining types between 47% and 93% think stricter laws are worth the cost.  For this question also the Solid Liberal type is the one expressing the 93% result.

Pew further queried attitudes concerning development of fossil fuel versus alternative energy sources.  65% of all respondents want to “develop wind, solar, (and) hydrogen alternatives”, whereas 28% want to “expand oil, coal and natural gas”.  66% of Steadfast Conservatives and 64% of Business Conservatives want to expand fossil fuel development, whereas 64-95% of the remaining types preferred to develop alternative energy.  Again, Solid Liberals were the type with the highest percent, 95%.

The Yale University Project on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication (here, CCC) jointly produce polls surveying the public’s attitudes on global warming.  In a report released Jan. 13, 2015, CCCcollated results from six surveys taken over three years, from March 2012 to October 2014.  Its conclusion is encapsulated in the title of the report: “Not All Republicans Think Alike About Global Warming”.  The six surveys provided 5,513 registered voters, of whom 2,330 were Republicans or leaning toward the Republican party. 

Almost two-thirds (66%) of registered voters think global warming is happening; including 44% of the 2,330 Republicans.

Seven out of 10 (70%) of registered voters support, either strongly or somewhat, a policy of regulating carbon dioxide, a principal greenhouse gas that is produced when fossil fuels are burned, as a pollutant; this position includes a majority (56%) of all Republicans.

Almost two-thirds (64%) of registered voters support, strongly or somewhat, a policy of setting strict carbon dioxide emission limits on existing coal-fired power plants in order to reduce global warming and improve public health;  slightly less than half (44%) of all Republicans supported this position.

Three-quarters (75%) of registered voters, including almost two-thirds (64%) of Republicans, supported, strongly or somewhat, providing tax rebates for people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels.

Republicans surveyed by CCC identified themselves as being in one of four groups: Liberal Republicans (4.5%), Moderate Republicans (23%), Conservative Republicans (55%), and Tea Party Republicans (18%; Tea Party Republicans are generally considered to be far right-wing and/or libertarian in political outlook).  Support for the four positions mentioned above was highest, always more than half, among Liberal Republicans and Moderate Republicans (variously ranging between about 60% and about three-quarters) of each these two groups.  Support by Conservative Republicans for these policies ranged between 38% and 63%; Tea Party Republican support ranged between 23% and 46%.

The New York Times, Stanford University and Resources for the Future (NSR)  conducted a poll of 1,006 adults in the U. S. on global warming, in the period January 7-22, 2015.  The survey broke out results for the 103 Hispanic respondents, in view of the perceived importance of this group of voters in the 2016 presidential election.  Hispanics (H) felt more personally affected by harms brought about by global warming than the 738 non-Hispanic whites (NHW).  A large majority of Hispanics felt that the issue is highly important to them, and a similar proportion believe the U. S. government should take action to counter global warming. 

The NSR poll found that more Hispanics identify themselves as Democrats or Independents, compared to non-Hispanic whites.  The Times report surmises that Hispanics feel more personally affected by global warming than other groups because they are poorer and live in areas adjacent to sources of greenhouse gas and other forms of pollution.  It notes that Gabriel Sanchez, a political scientist at the University of New Mexico believes “Latinos are actually among the most concerned about the environment, particularly global warming….To ignore the environment [as an issue important for Latinos] is to ignore something that a large section of the Latino population sees as important.”

Because of the small sample size of the Hispanic (H) group in the NSR poll, the margin of error for its answers is ±12%, while that for Non-Hispanic Whites (NHW) is ±4%.

The poll found that if nothing is done to curb global warming, 50% of NHWs and 57% of Hs think it would hurt them personally either a great deal, a lot, or a moderate amount.  Global warming is considered to be either extremely important, very important or somewhat important among 63% of NHWs and 79% of Hs.  70% of NHWs and 78% of Hs think the U. S. government should do either a great deal, a lot/quite a bit, or a moderate amount/some about global warming.

 

© 2015 Henry Auer

American Public Opinion Supports Measures to Combat Global Warming

Summary.  A consortium of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication has summarized current American public opinion regarding global warming.  The public is worried about global warming and its effects, both on themselves and on future generations.  Voters across the political spectrum favor policy action to counteract global warming.  There is strong support for developing renewable energy and extending energy efficiency measures.  Among voters who say that election candidates’ positions on global warming would affect their vote, most agree the planet is warming and that human activity is responsible. 

A review of other surveys agrees with these findings.  We conclude that in the U. S., popular support for legislation effectively addressing global warming is strong.  It is clear that the public “has the legislators’ back” in this matter.

 

Introduction.  Implementing new policies intended to counteract worsening global warming, in the U. S. and other democratic countries, necessarily requires the support of the population.  Administrative measures put in place by the U. S. executive branch, as well as new legislative measures enacted in the Congress, both depend on the assent of the people.  Barring such popular approval neither administrative policies nor proposed legislation would become reality, since there have always been many powerful corporate and economic interests dedicated to preserving the status quo.

Public opinion on various aspects of the global warming issue has been the focus of an ongoing series of surveys carried out by a consortium of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, involving Emily Vraga, Connie Roser-Renouf, Anthony Leiserowitz and Edward Maibach, among others.  Their most recent survey entitled “Climate Change in the American Mind”, was released in September 2012 (after the summer heat wave and drought in the Midwest, and an unusually intense season of forest wildfires in the West, but before the U. S. presidential election and before Hurricane Sandy struck the east coast).  This most recent survey worked with 839 subjects; their earlier surveys involved variously 774-832 subjects.

This post presents a selection of results from the most recent survey concerning the voting public’s attitudes toward global warming, including a breakdown by political affiliation.  These are categorized as Democrats (more liberal), Republicans (more conservative), and Independents (frequently called Unaffiliated by others).  This selection was released on Jan. 15, 2013 by Anthony Leiserowitz.

Survey Results.

There is strong concern among American voters about the effects of global warming.  Majorities of Democrats and Independents were worried about effects on them and succeeding generations.

Taking medium-scale or large-scale measures to reduce global warming is broadly supported, amounting to 69%, with 88% of Democrats and 78% of Independents in agreement.  Republicans in the past have been characterized as being more doubtful or skeptical concerning global warming and its effects.  Yet in this survey a majority of Republicans favor at least some level of effort to counteract global warming.

Various policies aimed at developing renewable energy sources are supported by an overwhelming majority of voters of all three affiliation groups. Such policies include eliminating current subsidies to the fossil fuel industry (many of which have been in place for almost 100 years).  Across all three groups, strong majorities favor additional research on developing renewable energy sources.

The public understands that carbon dioxide is a major greenhouse gas accumulating in the atmosphere.  Voters in the survey support regulating carbon dioxide emission (69%), including imposing a carbon tax.  There were slightly differing degrees of support for the tax depending on the use to which the proceeds would be applied; of the alternatives presented the most strongly supported were using the proceeds for job creation in renewable energy and energy efficiency, and promoting development of energy sources that minimize greenhouse gas emission.

93% of Democrats, 75% of Independents and 52% of Republicans were in agreement that global warming should be at least a medium priority for the President and Congress.  In the 6 months since the previous survey, these percentages for Democrats and Independents were 7-9% higher, while the percent for Republicans remained unchanged.

58% of registered voters say that the presidential candidates’ positions on global warming would be a factor in deciding how they would vote (note that this survey dates from before the U. S. presidential election).  Within this group, 83% agree that the temperature of the planet is warming, and 65% affirm that human activity is responsible for this warming. 

 
Analysis

The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases continues to rise inexorably year by year, as humanity across the globe relentlessly burns more fossil fuels to satisfy its energy demands.  Over the past decade, more, and more severe, climate and weather events negatively impacting human life and livelihood have occurred.  These frequently lead to loss of life, major damage to property and infrastructure, and loss of economic activity, all of which create a need for financial relief that is frequently borne by taxpayers.  These events are associated in the minds of the public with the idea that increased greenhouse gases are causing the increased extent of global warming that we are experiencing.

The Yale/George Mason survey shows that the voting public supports governmental action to help abate the worsening of global warming.  The public favors eliminating subsidies for the fossil fuel industry, and government-sponsored development of renewable energy sources.  American people, as represented by the survey, support a carbon tax whose proceeds would be applied to several objectives including job creation in renewable energy and energy efficiency, and development of innovations in renewable energy.

The survey results developed by the Yale/George Mason consortium are corroborated in other recent public opinion surveys on global warming.  In a review of several surveys ClimateNexus reports similar results as of Dec. 18, 2012.  Thus they were able to report that Hurricane Sandy, the record melting of Arctic Sea ice, and other North American weather patterns already mentioned have reinforced in the public mind that global warming is happening “right here, right now”.  Global warming acted to make such disasters and extremes worse than they would otherwise have been.  The harms to Americans are understood by the public.

In another analysis, Krosnick and MacInnis (Daedalus, Winter 2013, Vol. 142, pp. 26-39; (doi:10.1162/DAED_a_00183) ) similarly find the American public understands the increase in global warming, its origins from human activity, and the need to embark on policies to mitigate warming.  They conclude that the failure to enact legislation combating continued warming cannot be ascribed to a lack of popular support.

Policymakers should be heartened by the results of surveys such as those summarized here.  It is clear that the public “has the legislators’ backs”.  In view of the strong scientific basis underlying our understanding of global warming and its worsening trends, it is highly necessary to embark on measures to abate the process as soon as possible, and as intensively as possible.  Public opinion supports enacting such measures.

© 2013 Henry Auer