Efficiency and Decarbonization of Transportation

Summary.  Transportation policy plays an important role in meeting the overall objective of the IPCC to limit warming of the long-term global average temperature.  It is challenging to reduce CO₂ emissions, or to decarbonize, the myriad sources involved in transporting people and goods, so that other solutions are being developed.  These include making vehicles powered by internal combustion engines more efficient, and migrating to the use of electric vehicles powered by electricity that has been generated using renewable technologies.

States, nations and regions are approaching the problem of reducing emissions from transportation in different ways.  Some use market mechanisms and others use taxation, to put a price on carbon or on vehicles that burn fossil fuels.  Others issue regulations with efficiency goals that reduce the emission of CO₂.  The European Union is the only jurisdiction that has created a comprehensive transportation roadmap to reduce emissions and develop a trans-national integrated transportation system, all by 2050.

Lowering CO₂ emissions by transport vehicles is an important aspect of overall global climate change policy.  Both government policy and private enterprise can play major roles in developing new technologies to accomplish this objective. 

Climate change policy adopted by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the organization of most nations of the world that sponsored the Kyoto Protocol and is seeking its extension, is based on a science-derived finding of the U. N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 4^th Assessment Report.  It seeks to limit the accumulated atmospheric concentration of CO₂ (and other greenhouse gases expressed as CO₂ equivalents) to 450 parts per million (ppm), which is estimated to constrain the long-term global average temperature increase above the temperature that prevailed before the start of the industrial revolution to 2ºC (3.6ºF). 

 
The pre-industrial atmospheric CO₂ concentration was 280 ppm.  Presently the CO₂ concentration is about 393 ppm, and the global average temperature increase to date is about 0.7 ºC (1.3ºF).  Both these numbers are growing as mankind uses more and more fossil fuels and emits more and more CO₂ (and other greenhouse gases) into the atmosphere.  Since transportation accounts for about 25-30% of global CO₂ emissions there is a strong motivation to make this sector more fuel efficient, when using fossil fuels, and to decarbonize  the movement of people and goods wherever possible (i. e., eliminate the release of atmospheric greenhouse gases).
 
Internal combustion engines are highly inefficient.  Personal passenger transport is powered by internal combustion engines (ICE) that are fueled mostly by gasoline, refined from crude oil.  Burning fossil fuels injects the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, in a one-way flow from the geological deposits containing the oil to the release of a car’s exhaust to the atmosphere.  Yet use of ICEs is highly inefficient in terms of converting the chemical energy contained in the oil into useful mechanical energy, namely, propelling a car along the road.  This is shown below.

Energy use and losses in driving an automobile powered by an internal combustion engine, for combined city/highway driving.  The useful energy is “Power to Wheels”, lower right.  Its percentage is slightly lower for all-city driving, and slightly higher for all-highway driving (see the website below).  Source: Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, U. S. Dept. of Energy; http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml

It is remarkable that only 1/7 to 1/4 (depending on city to highway driving) of the energy contained in the fuel is used in moving the car.  It is even more surprising that “Engine Losses” include heat that is deliberately dissipated via the car’s radiator and exhaust, which constitutes about 56-64% of the energy in the fuel (depending on city to highway driving). 

The energy that propels the vehicle along the road must overcome the forces opposing forward motion, namely wind resistance, rolling resistance and braking (Power to Wheels, see graphic above).  These are susceptible of improvement.  Yet even if they were fully eliminated, which of course is not possible, there would still be the very high thermal losses (Engine Losses, see graphic above) that arise as long as the power source is an ICE. 

Reducing losses and increasing efficiency are considered in many sources (see References).  Among the most significant is weight reduction.  The inertia of an object is directly related to its weight.  It takes energy to change its inertia, for example when accelerating a car from a stop.  A lighter car will need less energy for acceleration than a heavier one.  A lighter car, needing less energy, can then incorporate a smaller engine, thereby decreasing weight even more.   

In addition, lighter materials can be used fabricate the frame and body of the car.  These include new steel alloys, alternative metals such as magnesium, aluminum and titanium, and nonmetallic composites such as carbon-fiber materials and strong plastics.  The Canadian Automobile Association states that vehicle weight can be reduced by as much as 40%, and that each weight reduction of 10% improves fuel economy by 5 to 7%.   

Smaller ICEs, in addition to being lighter, are also more efficient in converting the energy in the fuel to the forward motion of the car.  The Canadian Automobile Association, citing data from Natural Resources Canada’s 2008 Fuel Consumption Guide, shows that there is a much larger percentage increase in fuel economy in a compact car than in an SUV or a pick-up truck by making the engine smaller.  This factor is in addition to the considerable fuel economy achieved just by driving a compact car as opposed to an SUV or a pick-up truck.   

Streamlining the body lines of a car reduces its aerodynamic drag resistance to forward motion, a second important factor in optimizing efficiency of automobile transport.  In addition to the improvement in body shape that is obvious to the observer, shielding wheel wells and the underbody of the car further would improve its aerodynamic flow properties.   

Rolling resistance to forward motion refers to the deformation of tires as they roll along the road.  The tire, a semi-rigid object, is circular when it bears no weight, but is flattened out where it contacts the road when the car’s weight rests on it.  Energy is dissipated in the tire when this happens, and of course this goes on continuously as the car rolls along the roadway.  New high-efficiency tires, which optimize tread and sidewall design as well as incorporate new materials that dissipate less energy on deformation decrease rolling resistance.  Thus the losses ascribed in the graphic above to rolling resistance, amounting to 5-6% of the input energy of the fuel, can be reduced in some cases by as much as 20%.   

Capturing waste heat.  As seen in the graphic above, a major portion of the energy provided by burning fuel in an ICE, perhaps 60% or more, is lost as heat.  Research and development of technologies in ICE-driven vehicles that capture some of this heat are at an early stage, even though this aspect of vehicle inefficiency potentially offers the greatest gains in optimizing fuel economy.  

Thermoelectric conversion of heat directly to electricity relies on use of semiconductors that generate electricity when placed between two objects whose temperatures differ.  Schock and coworkers reported on research sponsored by the Energy Efficiency Renewable Energy program of the U. S. Dept. of Energy in a workshop in January 2011.  They fabricated and tested two different thermoelectric semiconductor materials, generating 70W or more.  They estimate that the payback period for the extra cost of a 1kW system is about 1 year, and for a 5kW system about 3 years.  Other thermoelectric systems, using various high-temperature  semiconductors, are being tested by BMW, Ford and Chevrolet, according to a report from May 2011.

Thermomechanical energy.  In 2005 Joaquin G. Ruiz, an undergraduate at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, proposed a way of capturing the heat generated in the catalytic converter in the exhaust train of an ICE-powered car to obtain more mechanical energy.  He estimated that overall thermal efficiency of fuel utilization (the numbers in the graphic above) could be improved by 7%, to be added to his estimate of 30% efficiency in current ICE fuel use.  In other words, his device would have a relative improvement in efficiency of more than 20%.  Honda is experimenting with a similar system that is reported to improve the thermal efficiency by 3.8% in a hybrid electric vehicle.

Cars powered by electricity, either partially or entirely, are expected to be far more efficient than full ICE-driven cars.  Electric cars were considered in an earlier post on this blog.  It discussed the all-electric Nissan LEAF, the two models of the all-electric Tesla Motors cars, the all-electric Mitsubishi iMiEV minicar, and the ICE-assisted electric Chevy Volt. 

Manufacturers of these electric cars emphasize their environmental advantage in having zero or minimal tailpipe emissions of CO₂.  Electric motors such as used in electric cars are highly efficient, capable of converting more than 90% of the electrical energy into the mechanical energy of motion.  As pointed out in the earlier post, however, these cars actually have low or zero emissions only to the extent that the electricity used to charge the batteries itself is obtained from renewable or low-CO₂ emitting generation sources.  Coal-fired electric generation is the least efficient, whereas modern natural gas-fired plants using combined cycle generation attain quite high efficiencies and much lower emissions of CO₂.  By 2035, the U. S. National Academy of Engineering estimates that even for all-electric vehicles, the greenhouse gas emissions will remain at 30-50% as much as currently emitted by ICE-powered cars because electricity will still be  generated to a considerable extent from fossil fuels.  Optimally, use of renewable sources such as wind power, solar power, hydroelectric power and geothermal power will provide truly zero emission generation of electricity.

BMW electric drive-train cars, BMWi3 and BMWi8 (see this video), strive to achieve sustainability to optimize energy efficiency by radically new design.  The heavier weight of the large-capacity electric batteries is offset by replacing metal bodies with carbon fiber-reinforced plastic which is lighter than any metal used in car construction, yet is stronger in crash tests.  The video states that this is the first use of carbon fiber in production cars.

Hybrid-electric cars are powered in tandem by electric motors and ICEs; the cars are engineered so that the two energy sources share the burden of propelling the car.  The Toyota Prius and Honda’s Civic Hybrid and Insight are examples of hybrid-electric cars currently available.

California’s plan to decarbonize passenger vehicles.  In the U. S., California has the most advanced plan, affecting the most people, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of all the states.  In an unofficial report detailing a path to achieving the state’s goal of reducing emissions by 80% by 2050, the California Council on Science and Technology (CCST) emphasizes the major role that will need to be played by decarbonizing the energy industry (see this post).  The report expects that personal transport will be achieved by electric vehicles, and that the electricity that powers these vehicles (and provides energy generally for the economy) will be generated largely by decarbonized sources.  Fossil fuels may continue providing the energy for electricity generation to the extent that the currently unproven technology of carbon capture and (geological) storage will be developed to industrial scale.  Otherwise renewable energy sources must be relied upon, in the view of the report.

U. S. government extends fuel efficiency standards.  In 2011 the administration of President Obama extended the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standard to 55.4 mpg for cars by 2025.  The previous CAFÉ standard issued by the Obama administration in 2009 raised the value to 35.5 mpg by 2016.  In addition the 2025 mandate covers new fuel efficiency standards on medium- and heavy-duty trucks.  It is expected to prevent emission of large amounts of CO₂, save fuel costs to drivers, and reduce the need to import oil from foreign producers.  These savings, in the case of trucks, are expected to offset the extra cost of compliance with the standard, reaching payback within two years.

China and other developing countries will be responsible for a major increase in the number of passenger vehicles in use in coming decades, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).  Its World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2010 (Executive Summary) analyzes present and projected world-wide production and consumption of energy over the period 2010-2035.  The New Policies Scenario of the WEO predicts changes in energy demand resulting from measures to be taken in response to the commitments made at the UNFCCC Copenhagen meeting of nations in 2009.  WEO judges that under this Scenario CO₂ emissions continue to rise, by 21% over the level of 2008.

The growth in passenger vehicles in regions of the world, actual and projected under the New Policies Scenario, is shown below.

Actual growth in number of passenger vehicles (1980-2008) and projected growth (2020, 2035).  Other non-OECD (developing) countries includes India, for example.  Reproduced from World Energy Outlook 2010 © OECD/IEA.  The OECD has essentially similar membership as the IEA, plus 5 additional nations; http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/weo2010_london_nov9.pdf

The growth for China reflects its pronounced economic growth over this period, resulting in a large shift of its population into a middle class that demands personal cars, among other amenities.  It is seen from the chart that other developing countries are likewise projected to experience large increases in the number of passenger cars.  

Current technology emphasizes powering passenger cars with fossil fuel-driven ICEs, leading to a large increase in greenhouse gas emissions worldwide from this source.  But the Edmunds Auto Observer reports that, as of 2009, China’s fleet-average fuel efficiency, including SUVs and minivans, was already 36.8 miles per gallon (mpg), and that the country has mandated an increase to 42.2-mpg by 2015.  A tax on vehicles based on their engine size provides a further economic incentive impelling Chinese purchasers toward smaller vehicles.   The current tax rates are shown in red bars in the graphic below.


Vehicle excise tax in China based on engine size.  Source: Huiming Gong, The Energy Foundation;  http://www.egeec.apec.org/www/UploadFile/apec_wppeet_gong_huiming.pdf

It is seen that there is a strong tax incentive to purchase smaller cars having smaller engines, and that this incentive became more pronounced for the largest cars after 2008.  In addition to this vehicle excise tax, there is a fuel tax as well.  Conversely, according to The China New Energy Vehicles Program , pilot programs are deploying electric vehicles in as many as 25 Chinese cities, beginning with government vehicle fleets. Purchases of electric vehicles by the public will be subsidized and vehicle charging stations will be deployed.  RMB 100 billion (USD 15.9 billion) will be devoted to new energy vehicles in the next 10 years.  While some reductions in CO₂ emissions occur as a result of China’s shift toward use of electric vehicles, it is not as great as it could be in view of the fact that a major portion of China’s electricity is generated from coal-fired power plants.  These emit about twice as much CO₂ per kWh as do modern natural gas-fired generating plants. 

Europe’s integrated economy-wide transportation plan.  The European Commission (EC) has developed a plan, currently being implemented by the nations of the European Union (EU), to limit greenhouse gas emissions from all sources by 20% below the levels of 1990 by 2020, and by at least 80% by 2050 (see this earlier post).  As part of this program the EC has set forth its transportation program in a White Paper on Transport (see References).  Its objective is to achieve a single EU-wide transport area that closely integrates all modes of transportation and unifies modes of transportation across national boundaries.  The plan intends to reduce the EU’s dependence on oil for transport by 60% by 2050, while enhancing efficiency and the mobility of goods and people, and promoting economic development.  The White Paper recognizes that action must begin without delay, since an extended period of planning, building and implementing the system will be needed.  The following are among the plan’s features. 

There will be incentives in urban areas to limit personal car travel, and migrate to mass transit and even bicycling and walking.  Generally personal vehicles, clearly involved mainly in short trips, will be powered other than by fossil fuel-driven engines.  This will contribute to lowering the dependence on oil, and reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and other polluting combustion products. 

Intermediate-range movements will emphasize development of multimodal means for transport, with efficient terminals facilitating the interchange of passengers and goods between modes such as vehicle use and rail use.  The White Paper observes that use of more efficient vehicles and phasing in of renewable fuels by themselves will likely not be sufficient to attain the intended objectives.  It proposes that common transportation modalities  including trains (including high-speed rail), buses and airplanes be developed to supplant personal vehicle use, and that more than 50% of freight be moved by rail and waterborne shipping by 2050 rather than by road as is currently done. 

For long distance travel, beyond the boundaries of the EU, the White Paper proposes enhancing the efficiency of aircraft and optimizing air traffic flow by developing information technology-based traffic efficiencies.  These steps should increase fuel efficiency and optimize the flow of passengers and cargo.  It is likely that the volume of air transport of the EU will double by 2050.  

Analysis

Transport, which includes passenger vehicles, heavy duty vehicles, rail, air and shipping, accounts for about 27% of all the energy consumed worldwide.  Virtually all the energy used in transport is derived from burning fossil fuels, releasing the product, CO₂, a greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere.  Vehicles powered by ICEs, and the other transport modes mentioned, are distributed sources for CO₂ emissions.  There is no obvious way to capture CO₂ from them in a way that would prevent it from entering the atmosphere. 

The number of transport vehicles is expected to rise in coming decades, due both to rising populations, especially in the developing world, and to advances in economic wellbeing as the economies of developing countries expand.  In the absence of policies that would lower the extent of CO₂ emissions from transport, this sector will contribute significantly to ever increasing annual rates of greenhouse gas emissions in coming decades.  

CO₂, once emitted into the atmosphere, persists for at least a century and probably longer.  Thus each year’s incremental addition accumulates, increasing the atmospheric CO₂ concentration.  One can think of adding CO₂ to a bathtub through its faucet; the bathtub’s drain, however, is closed so no CO₂ leaves.  Even if the faucet were turned off (i. e., reducing the annual rate of CO₂ emissions to zero), the bathtub would still have its full accumulated level of CO₂ in it.  This is why the IPCC has warned of the need to limit CO₂ emissions.  Lowering greenhouse gas emissions will help keep the level in the CO₂ bathtub as low as possible, but can not meaningfully reduce its level. 

Transport vehicles powered by ICEs (or diesel) can reduce, but not eliminate, CO₂ emissions by efficiency steps such as outlined here, significantly increasing fuel efficiency.  Distribution of more efficient vehicles among buyers is facilitated by measures such as China’s excise tax which becomes more severe as engine size increases; by a “fee-bate” regime whereby the purchase of small, efficient cars is subsidized by a tax imposed on the purchase of larger, inefficient vehicles; by fuel taxes; or by pricing CO₂ emissions using a cap-and-trade market system.  Alternative measures are exemplified by regulations that increase the required fleet-average fuel efficiency, such as imposed administratively in the U. S. Nevertheless, as long as ICE-powered vehicles remain in service, CO₂ emissions can be reduced to near zero only by substituting renewable biofuels for fossil fuels. 

The CCST elaborated an ambitious program for reducing emissions by moving toward zero-emissions electricity to power transport vehicles and the economy more generally.  The CCST plan envisions using carbon captureand sequestration (CCS) to the extent that fixed generating facilities retain the use of fossil fuels as the primary energy source.  Yet, at the present time, CCS remains an experimental technology under development; it is not clear yet that it will become feasible at the industrial scale needed to accommodate fossil fuel-derived electric power.  Additionally, the CCST report stresses the development of renewable energy sources including wind, solar and biomass. 

China’s auto excise taxes induce its car-buying public to purchase smaller, more fuel-efficient car models.  The U. S., on the other hand, has been unable for more than a decade to enact a national energy policy which would have included transportation goals for fuel efficiency.  Instead, the present Obama administration has acted twice to extend previous regulations governing average fuel efficiency for passenger cars, first in 2009, then again in 2011.  The latter standard, to be effective by 2025, is quite ambitious.  Other than that, however, there is no unified national energy policy in effect in the U. S.  The state of California has partially filled that void, by enacting overall emission reduction goals that mirror those of the European Union.  The unofficial CCST plan for complying with its state’s mandate places strong emphasis on electrifying the energy economy with zero emissions, including, for transport, a virtually complete transition to use of electric vehicles or renewable fuels. 

Among the nations of the world, it is only the trans-national European Union that is addressing its energy economy overall, and its transportation policy in particular, in a cohesive, comprehensive fashion.  The EU’s “Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area” (see References) details the many interconnected aspects of transport policy, formulated with the objective of contributing significantly to the EU’s overall Roadmap 2050 for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by that year.  The EU fashioned its Roadmap, extending beyond the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012, independently of the fruitless negotiations under the UNFCCC seeking to formulate global energy policies beyond 2012.  

The need for global policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is critical.  Given the significant role that transport plays in contributing to these emissions, reformulating transportation modalities to reach low- or zero-emissions is an important facet of overall energy policy.  We should strive to achieve such goals as quickly as possible.  From the many examples cited above, it is clear that there is a role to be played both by government policy, including monetary support for new technologies, and by private industry driven by motives to generate profits.   

References 

“Primer on Automobile Fuel Efficiency and Emissions”, Canadian Automobile Association, June 2009; http://www.caa.ca/primer/documents/primer-eng.pdf.  

“Reinventing Fire: Bold Business Solutions for the New Energy Era”, Amory B. Lovins and the Rocky Mountain Institute, Chelsea Green Publishing, White River Junction, VT, 2011. 

“Real Prospects for Energy Efficiency in the United States”, U. S. National Academy of Engineering, a component of the National Academies, 2010; http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12621.  A free summary may be obtained here http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12621.html . 

“California’s Energy Future: The View to 2050”, Summary Report, California Council on Science and Technology, May 2011; http://www.ccst.us/publications/2011/2011energy.pdf) 

“Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area — Towards a Competitive and Resource-Efficient Transport System” (COM (2011) 144 final, European Commission White Paper, 28 March 2011; http://ec.europa.eu/transport/strategies/doc/2011_white_paper/white-paper-illustrated-brochure_en.pdf  

“The China New Energy Vehicles Program: Challenges and Opportunities”, World Bank and PRTM Management Consultants, Inc., April 2011; http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTNEWSCHINESE/Resources/3196537-1202098669693/EV_Report_en.pdf

© 2012 Henry Auer

Increasing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Developing Countries

Summary.  The developing world generally has higher rates of population growth and economic development than do developed countries.  Energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of China and India, the most important examples of developing countries, have grown 4- to 6-fold from 1980 to 2009.  They are projected to continue growing rapidly in coming decades.

To the extent that such development continues without constraint on emissions of greenhouse gases, the world risks exceeding the limit of an increase in worldwide average temperature of 2ºC agreed to by the nations of the world.  Warming worldwide temperatures bring with them increased occurrence of extreme weather events that cause high levels of physical and economic harms.  Instead of expanding use of fossil fuels, the nations of the world should agree on new measures to “decarbonize” energy production and limit greenhouse gas emissions, thereby constraining planetary temperature rise within the agreed limit.

Introduction.  The use of energy, primarily provided by fossil fuels, across the globe has been expanding inexorably over past decades, and is forecast to continue growing by large amounts in coming decades.  Correspondingly the rate of emission of resulting greenhouse gases is also rising dramatically.  Most of this growth originates in the developing countries of the world, which generally are expanding both in their populations and in their economic activity.  Both factors contribute to expanding demand for energy.  This post examines these issues.

Many points are summarized in the main body of this post, with expanded information and data provided in the Details section at the end.

                       

Historical trends for energy use and CO₂ emissions for China and India.  China and India are the largest countries among the non-OECD nations (OECD, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, considered to be developed countries; see Note 1; non-OECD countries considered to be developing countries).  They have been growing rapidly in economic productivity, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions over the last two decades.  This post exemplifies the expansion of the energy economies of developing countries by focusing on these two countries. 

In 2009 China was the largest, and India was the fourth largest, consumer of energy in the world (U. S. Energy Information Agency (USEIA) India analysis, Nov. 21, 2011).  As India’s population expands and the national economies of both countries grow (see population and GDP tables below in the section Projected future trends), energy demand is expected to rise significantly.

Past growth in use of fossil fuels by China and India is summarized here.  For more details and graphics please see the Details section below. 

Generally, use of fossil fuels, and especially of coal and oil, has grown 4- to 6-fold, or even more, from 1980 to 2009.  Emissions of CO₂, the greenhouse gas that is the product of burning fossil fuels, likewise grew at comparable rates.

Energy use and emissions for the period from 1997, the year the Kyoto Protocol was agreed on, and the last year in the graphs below, 2009, are evaluated.  The date of the Kyoto Protocol is used here, because, as developing countries, China and India were excluded from coverage by its terms while many developed countries would be bound by it.  For this period:

• coal use by China grew by 241%, and use by India grew by 195%;
• China’s use of oil grew 213% from 1997 to 2009, and India’s grew by 176%; and
• CO₂ emissions from China grew by 250% between 1997 and 2009, and from India by 184%.

Coal is the predominant source of energy in China by far.  Among renewable sources, hydroelectric power constituted 6% of energy consumption.

Coal is a large source of energy for India as well as for China.  It is also significant that 24% of energy in India comes from combustible biomass, much of which originates from animal waste.

Neither country had large energy sources from renewable sources such as wind and solar power as of 2008-2009.

Projected future trends

World population growth.  The USEIA issued its International Energy Outlook 2011 (IEO) in September 2011.  The IEO projects population increases among countries of the world in its International Energy Outlook 2011.  Data extracted from this report for the U. S., OECD, China and India include the following:

                   Population growth

Region/country	2008 Actual	2035 Projection	Av. annual % chg.
U.S.	305	390	0.9
OECD	1,209	1,358	0.5
China	1,328	1,450	0.3
India	1,181	1,528	1.0
World	6,731	8,453	0.9

Source: USEIA, International Energy Outlook 2011  http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484(2011).pdf

World per capita gross domestic product (GDP).  The USEIA projects the growth in economic activity among countries and regions of the world in its IEO.  Data for per capita GDP include the following:

Per capita GDP expressed in purchasing power parity, using 2005 USD

Region/country	2008 Actual	2035 Projection	Av. annual % chg.
U.S.	43,349	65,862	1.5
OECD	30,601	47,887	1.7
China	5,777	23,694	5.7
India	2,692	8,792	4.6
World	9,773	19,123	2.6

Source: USEIA, International Energy Outlook 2011  http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484(2011).pdf  

Projected future growth in energy use.  (See Details for further information.)

Projections of future energy use drawn from the IEO relate to the USEIA’s Reference case, in which it is assumed that economic growth continues as at present, and that no policy changes are made in the future that are not currently operative.  This is frequently referred to as “business-as-usual”.

In its press release, USEIA states that, largely because of strong economic growth in developing countries (non-OECD countries) including the two leaders, China and India, the world’s energy use is expected to increase 53% between 2008 and 2035.  Energy use is closely tied to the growth in economic activity; the table above shows that per capita GDP is projected to grow by 5.7%/yr in China, and by 4.6%/yr in India, much more rapidly than in developed countries. These two countries alone will be responsible for half of the world’s increase in energy use.

An extract of data presented in the IEO is tabulated in the Details section at the end of this post, following the Discussion.  A graphical presentation of projected energy use is shown here.

Source: USEIA, International Energy Outlook 2011  http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484(2011).pdf

China and India consumed 21% of the world’s energy in 2008.  Their energy use is expected to more than double over the period shown, constituting 31% of the world’s energy use in 2035.  The annualized rate of increase across all non-OECD countries is 2.3%, whereas for the developed countries (OECD), the annualized rate of increase is only 0.6% (see the graphic above).

Projected growth in CO₂ emissions.  The IEO includes predictions for growth in CO₂ emissions originating from fossil fuels.  Data from the table in the Details section are shown in the chart below.

Source: USEIA, International Energy Outlook 2011  http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484(2011).pdf

Emissions from India grow by 208% from 2008 to 2035, and those from China grow by 198%.  It is seen that emission growth from the U. S. and from the OECD as a whole are much more modest.  The nations of the European Union, included in the OECD, have embarked on an ambitious program (linked here and here) to reduce emissions by 80% by 2050.  Clearly this falls outside the assumptions of the USEIA Reference case, and is not reflected in the data for the OECD.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) published its World Energy Outlook 2011 (WEO 2011) on Nov. 9, 2011.  It includes projections based on three scenarios.  The Current Policy Scenario (CPS) assumes no additional emissions policies implemented beyond those already in place in 2011.  This inaction is projected to lead to an increase in long-term global average temperature of 6ºC (10.8ºF) by 2035.  The intermediate New Policies Scenario includes policies intended to reduce emissions, but not by enough to stabilize atmospheric CO₂ levels. It is projected to lead to an increase in long-term global average temperature of 3.5ºC (6.3ºF).  The 450 Policy Scenario (450 PS) implements strict controls on new emissions that are intended to stabilize the atmospheric CO₂ concentration at 450 parts per million; this is the level deemed adequate to keep the increase in long-term global average temperature within 2ºC (3.6ºF) above the pre-industrial level.  This upper limit is based on the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was issued in 2007.

The IEA graphic below compares projections of Total Primary Energy Supply by global regions for two scenarios, CPS and 450 PS.

Comparison of total world energy supply under the CPS and the 450 PS. Historical data for 1990 and 2008, and projected results under the two policies for 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2035.  Blue: OECD+ (developed countries); Green: OME, other major economies (developing countries); Purple: OC, other countries (developing countries); (see Note 2); Orange: Intl. bunkers, international air and marine transportation.

Source: IEA, 2011 Key World Energy Statistics; http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2011/key_world_energy_stats.pdf

The chart above illustrates annual rates of use of energy, indicating that each year large amounts of the greenhouse gas CO₂ are emitted.  Under CPS, the annual rate keeps increasing, adding to atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ at an ever-increasing rate.  Under 450 the annual rate appears to level off, but each year additional CO₂ still is emitted. 

Nevertheless, it is seen that by 2035, adopting the stringent 450 Policy Scenario results in an overall projected decrease of 22% in total energy needed compared to CPS.  The largest reduction in energy use is from the large economies of the developing world (OME), about 23%; followed by reductions in energy use by other developing countries (OC), about 17%, and reductions by OECD+ (developed countries) of about 13%.

Discussion

The Cancun Agreements were the final product (text and press release) of the 2010 conference, held under the auspices of the United Nations, and were approved by all 193 nations except one. 

Among the commitments made in Cancun, developing countries, on a voluntary basis, submitted “nationally appropriate mitigation actions” planned for coming years to the United Nations supervisory body.  Whereas many countries with smaller economies enumerated detailed goals and steps, countries such as China and India that are major emitters of greenhouse gases provided only brief, more generic, statements of goals (see the table below):

Country	Year for goal	Statement of goal
China	2020	Voluntary measures to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP; emissions intensity) by 40–45% compared to 2005, increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 15%, and to increase forest coverage by 40 million hectares (99 million acres).
India	2020	Voluntary efforts to reduce emissions intensity of its GDP by 20–25% compared with the 2005 level, excluding emissions from agriculture.

Developing countries such as China have long stressed their improvement of energy intensity, a measure of increasing the efficiency of their use of energy.  Yet, as seen in this post, their absolute amounts of energy used and greenhouse gas emitted continue growing at significant rates, responding to the prodigious rate of expansion of their economies, improvement in energy intensity notwithstanding.

The IEA warned in WEO 2011, according to its press release, that the world will enter “an insecure, inefficient and high-carbon energy system” unless it implements strong new policies to lower future emissions of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases.  Recent developments that signal  this urgency include the Fukushima nuclear accident which has deflated enthusiasm for nuclear energy, turmoil in the Middle East which creates instability in oil supplies and costs, and a strong increase in energy demand in 2010 which led to record high emissions of CO₂.

Fatih Birol, IEA’s Chief Economist, points out that as time passes without significant action to mitigate emissions, the world is becoming “locked in” to a high-carbon energy infrastructure.  Up to the point of changing policy, all preexisting energy-producing and –consuming infrastructure commits the world to continuing its carbon-inefficient energy economy.  They continue to emit CO₂ annually during their service lifetimes according to their originally designed (less efficient) operating specifications.  This is illustrated in the following graphic, which considers that 2010 is the year of commitment.

Lock-in of annual rates of CO₂ emissions from energy-producing and energy-consuming physical installations as of 2010, shown in the various SOLID colors.  Projected additional annual rates of emissions from facilities newly installed after 2010, allowable under the 450 Policy Scenario, are shown in the HATCHED GREEN area at the top of the diagram. 450 envisions that the annual rate of emissions reaches a maximum by 2017 and then begins declining.

© OECD/IEA 2011.  Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2011; http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2011/key_graphs.pdf

In the graphic above emissions from committed infrastructure (solid colors) are projected to decrease year by year as the various facilities age and are removed from service.  The graphic illustrates the maneuvering leeway (green shading) in annual CO₂ emissions that are consistent with the 450 Policy Scenario, which is intended to ensure that the long-term average increase in global temperature is constrained to 2ºC (3.6ºF).  The IEA press release states

“Four-fifths of the total energy-related CO2 emissions permitted to 2035 in the 450 Scenario are already locked-in by existing capital stock…. Without further action by 2017, the energy-related infrastructure then in place would generate all the CO2 emissions allowed in the 450 Scenario up to 2035. Delaying action is a false economy: for every $1 of investment in cleaner technology that is avoided in the power sector before 2020, an additional $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the increased emissions.”

The leeway emissions are the only portions of the world’s energy economy available for manipulation to reduce overall CO₂ emissions.

The Kyoto Protocol, covering many developed nations but not the U. S., expires in 2012.  It had been the goal of the U. N. conferences in Copenhagen (2009) and Cancun (2010) to negotiate a new treaty to follow Kyoto as it expired.  But the nations of the world could not agree on terms.  In 2011, at the Durban conference conference, this discord was so fundamental that now the goal has been pushed back to reach an agreement by 2015, with the objective of having it come into force by 2020.  Unfortunately, these dates are greatly extended from earlier timelines.  They permit greenhouse gases to be emitted unconstrained and to continue accumulating in the earth’s atmosphere without sanctions in the interim.  Because of the delay, climate scientists are concerned that the global average temperature will increase considerably more than previously hoped.  This would mean severe changes in climate and weather, leading to increased numbers and severity of extreme weather events. 

Greenhouse gas emissions are a global problem, demanding a global solution.  Once emitted into the atmosphere, CO₂ and other greenhouse gases do not carry a label indicating where on the globe they originated from.  Emissions from any country become the greenhouse effect problem of every country.  The increase in the long-term global average temperature, and its attendant extremes of weather events, damages caused and expenses incurred, affect all the nations of the world. 

Rather than continuing the unabated expansion of the use of fossil fuels, and incurring unforeseen expenses caused by extreme weather events, the nations of the world should be decarbonizing their energy.  Comparable amounts of capital could be invested and comparable numbers of new jobs could be created that would be directed to developing renewable sources of energy or to implementing “zero-emissions” use of fossil fuels (exemplified by the experimental technology of carbon capture and storage).  It behooves all nations to embark on greenhouse gas mitigation measures as soon as possible, and not to continue “business-as-usual”.

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Details.

Historical trends for energy use and CO₂ emissions for China and India.

Trends for coal and oil use in China and India are shown below, as these are the principal fossil fuels used in each country for electricity generation and transportation, respectively.  Values for 1997, the year the Kyoto Protocol was agreed on, and the last year in the graph, 2009, are shown.  The date of the Kyoto Protocol is used here, because, as developing countries, China and India were excluded from coverage by its terms.

Use of coal is shown below.

Use of coal 1980-2009, million short tons/year, for China and India.  The scale for China runs from 0 to 3500, and that for India runs from 0 to 700.

Source: USEIA http://www.eia.gov/countries/img/charts_png/CH_coacon_img.png

http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=IN#coal

From 1997 to 2009, coal use by China grew by 241%, and use by India grew by 195%.  For a portion of this period, it is believed that China was commissioning new coal-fired electricity plants at the rate of about two per week.

Total use of oil in thousands of barrels/day between 1980 and 2009 for China and India.  The scale for China runs from 0 to 9000, and that for India runs from 0 to 3500.

Source: USEIA http://www.eia.gov/countries/img/charts_png/CH_petcon_img.png

http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=IN#pet

China’s use of oil grew 213% from 1997 to 2009, and India’s grew by 176%.

China’s use of petroleum increased a further 10% from 2009 to 2010, and is expected to grow at that rate in the next few years  (USEIA China Analysis 2011).  It produces considerable oil domestically, but also imports large amounts, currently about the same as is produced domestically. 

The distribution of the sources of energy for China and India is shown in the chart below, for 2008 or 2009.

Source: USEIA. http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH;

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=IN.

Coal is the predominant source of energy in China by far.  Among renewable sources, hydroelectric power constituted 6% of energy consumption; China is assertively developing this source.  The total amount of hydroelectric power will expand considerably in 2012 as all the turbines at the Three Gorges Dam begin operating.

The graphic shows that coal is a large source of energy for India as well as in China.  It is also significant that 24% of energy in India comes from combustible biomass, much of which originates from animal waste.

Other than hydroelectric power, neither country had large energy sources from renewable sources such as wind and solar power as of 2008-2009.

Carbon dioxide emissions attributed to the burning of fossil fuels for the two countries are shown below.

Total carbon dioxide emissions from use of fossil fuels 1980-2009 for China and India, million metric tons/year.  The scale for China runs from 0 to 8000, and that for India runs from 0 to 1800.

Source : USEIA http://www.eia.gov/countries/img/charts_png/CH_co2con_img.png

http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=IN#cde

CO₂ emissions from China grew by 250% between 1997 and 2009, and from India by 184%.  It is noteworthy that, as expected, the trajectory of emissions from China closely resembles the pattern of its coal use (see earlier graphic, above).

Projected future growth in energy use.

Consumption of all fossil fuels is projected to grow dramatically during this period.  Use of coal is projected to increase from 139 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 209 quadrillion Btu in 2035, a change of 50%.  China alone is responsible for 76% of the increase in use of coal.  India and other Asian countries also contribute significantly (19%) to this increase, at least in part because coal is cheaper to use than other sources of energy. 

Use of energy in transportation of people and goods is projected to grow through 2035 in the Reference case, almost entirely from non-OECD countries.  As non-OECD countries grow economically, the demand for transportation services grows significantly, especially the demand for personal cars.  Energy consumption in transportation almost doubles, growing at a rate of 2.6%/yr in the non-OECD countries, but only at 0.3%/yr in OECD countries.

Renewable energy across the globe is provided largely by hydroelectric generation and wind; solar generation currently plays a much smaller role.  In OECD countries, the major growth in renewables through 2035 is expected to come from wind and solar power, as potential hydroelectric sites are already fully developed.  In non-OECD countries, however, hydroelectric generation is still growing at a fast pace as dam sites continue to be exploited.

Electricity generation in China is expanding very rapidly, and is expected to continue to do so (USEIA China Analysis 2011).   In 2008 the generating capacity was 797 GW of which almost 80% was generated from coal.  It is expected that by 2020 the capacity will double to 1,600 GW, and to generate 3 times as much electricity by 2035 as was produced in 2009.  To accommodate this increased capacity, the Chinese are also aggressively expanding their transmission grid.  Since most of the generating capacity comes from conventional thermal sources supplied largely by burning coal and natural gas, it is to be expected that emissions of CO₂ will increase correspondingly.  The government of China expects that thermal generation capacity will increase from 652 GW in 2009 to 1,000 GW in 2020.  Coal will remain the principal fuel because of its domestic abundance, although older plants will be decommissioned in favor of larger, more efficient generators.  Natural gas will play a small but increasing role in the future.

Among renewable sources, hydroelectric power plays a larger role in China than in any other country, and will continue to grow.  For instance the massive Three Gorges Dam will become fully operational in 2012.  Wind power is expanding at a rapid rate, but even so remains a miniscule fraction of China’s electric generating portfolio.

Electricity generation in India.  India had about 177 GW of generating capacity in place in 2008 (USEIA India analysis).  Conventional thermal generation (mostly coal) provided 80% of that, with hydroelectric generation providing most of the remainder.  Nuclear and renewable power provided only a few percent of India’s electricity.  About 35% of the population lacks access to electricity, mostly in rural areas, representing over 400 million people.  Even in the main cities there are frequent blackouts.

Projections of future energy use under the USEIA’s Reference case are drawn from IEO and tabulated here.

Source: USEIA, International Energy Outlook 2011  http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484(2011).pdf

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Notes:

1. Current OECD member countries included in this IEO are the United States, Canada, Mexico, Austria, Belgium, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark,

Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.

2. OECD+: OECD as in Note 1 plus Bulgaria, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta and Romania;

OME (other major economies), Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russian Federation and Middle East;

OC (other countries), the world other than OECD+ and OME.

© 2011 Henry Auer